8-Ball FM - Day 2 (6/8)

So you are sheeping may on chomps townread but not mkp townread

@Xorbitant I can lay out my direct thought process on this and explain where my head was at

  • I was having serious doubts it was tutuu. He had genuinely seemed resigned to his fate and I really bought his post to mkp arguing why I was town.
  • If it wasn’t tutuu, I found it likely to be may/dia. May had been constantly attacking peoples wolf reads of dia without town reading there, and may+dia both were supporting me on my push of tutuu but not really jumping in themselves once me/tutuu started finding. May, near EoD, was going on about how they took back all their reads and had no idea. So although may and dia were both strongly calling tutuu wolf, I felt like I was the only one who would get any flack if tutuu was town.
  • I was still going to kill tutuu, because I felt like there wasn’t enough to justify a dia kill (I wasn’t worried about 8ball but I was worried about the effects of killing a town dia).
  • But then may comes back, suspiciously ONE minute before EoD, and doesn’t give away any info. I ask may about may’s thouughts and may stalled. 30 seconds. 20 seconds.
  • I felt like may was going to vote for tutuu at the VERY LAST SECOND. Because may seemed like a possible pair for tutuu, and may only popped up the MOMENT after dia got put in a wagon tie. I thought may was lurking to wait out EoD and only post if dia was in any danger of dying, pretending to “remember about the game”, and then vote for tutuu RIGHT before the day ends, so that I would not have time to react and change my vote to Dia, killing Dia, if I decided that the information of may’s vote influenced me to think Dia was wolfy. I found this extremely suspicious.
  • Day was going to end in 3 seconds, and I had my Dia vote typed up. I decided that it was too likely may was going to send a last-minute vote and it would kill a villager tutuu, and if that happened, I would not have time to react. So I decided to just pull the trigger and vote Dia, ensuring Dia would die no matter what, because I preferred a Dia flip of any alignment to a last-minute may vote on tutuu, because that means in my mind tutuu would almost certainly flip town and I would be “on the hook” for it. May posted simultaneously that they were not gonna hammer, but I didn’t have time to see that.

I know its a very bad look considering dia was the 8ball. But everything I was posting beforehand lines up with this. I had been throwing out pretty heavily the idea of a dia/may team, I was upset with may for seemingly abandoning all thoughts right before EoD, and I got EXTREMELY panicked when may came in last minute. I thought I was about to get played, and made the choice to decide the elimination myself instead of giving may the opportunity to decide it. It was bad/selfish play probably, with catastrophic results, but this is why.

I could go further about how fucking incredibly hard it was to make an extremely important eod decision while on a time crunch and panicked, desperately waiting for the flip that came way longer than the 1 minute hosts said, only for dia to flip 8ball and having to deal with the fact that I was wrong, the worst possible outcome happened of me being wrong, and I looked extremely suspicious for it and would have to answer for it EoD. But honestly if I delved into that in as much detail as I did on my thoughts before the flip it would be considered AtE.

Ebwop

What is ebwop

edit by way of post, I didn’t want to edit the post themselves because it’s kinda against the rules to do it for more than simple typos but I changed it in the quotes to show what I meant.

I don’t really see the problem
Tutuu was/is problematic slot
So no one would have blamed u

  • If u sr tutuu and they are valid reasons u shouldn’t be having second thoughts

Forums is a long game and if anyone comes and goes at any time u really can’t consider that that’s just oog

I still don’t see if may votes tutuu so be it
If someone votes ur sr what’s the problem
And if the slot flips town or u have question/doubt over that vote that is a thing of next day

"if I decided that the information of may’s vote influenced me to think Dia was wolfy. I found this extremely suspicious. "

You know what you are showing your doubts on May at that point that may and dia are paired and may will vote tutuu to save dia , BUT this is what u did u voted at last second and saved tutuu

Villager tutuu seriously and even if they are doesn’t matter so be it

Ur decision and duty was to only vote tutuu ur sr just that nothing else

i dont think the difference between how much i wolfread tutuu and how much I wolfread dia was that much. I went on a suboptimal play and voted the player I wolfread a bit less but I thought both of them had decently high chances of flipping wolf

if may votes tutuu last minute thats a problem, because I know may and I know town may would never ever do that, and I know wolf may would only do it on someone who is not a partner.

If may votes tutuu last second, fmpov that means a villager is dying always, and I felt like it was coming because may was playing coy and not saying their preferences. So if I stay on tutuu its either a rand, or tutuu definitely dies and 0% chance flips wolf. Wheras if I vote dia, even if may is town and was never gonna last second vote, its still a 40% chance in my eyes of flipping a wolf vs a 60% chance one. And if may was wolf and planning to snipe, the chances that dia are wolf rocket up

So let’s talk about this point then. You talked with May about a sacrificial play and how it can work out. So making this assumption off the bat is already incredibly bad. Since this is forcing a world you want to attribute to everyone and make it basically gospel. So it’s obvious to me that this is just the BIGGEST POWERWOLF play because you only need one 8ball hit to win the game. At worst you hit a non eight ball in your 3 people and then 8ball self incase things go arwy and force town to go into the mylo.

Let’s talk about this. I think it’s Ish + You and in this world there’s no reason to move espically when the 8ball was gaining traction. You clearly made the play to kill the 8ball and try to cover it up with “I don’t want May to have the choice.” Since let’s be honest it’s better for you in this spot to do it because you have THE EASIEST fallback plan in the world even though it’s an outing move. You can argue that I did the same but I made it explictly clear I wanted Ish gone during that EOD and didn’t want to go to my 3rd/4th choices until tutuu sheilded you. But I can get more into more logic. Since it can easily be Tutuu+You with fallback Tutuu is 8ball so you can keep power wolfing.

Fair enough. But I don’t have it in me to keep you going in this game. Like if I get pushed out and i flip vanilla town and hopefully you kill this slot ON SIGHT. It’s ON SIGHT. And before someone says you can be wrong with legacy. I’m confident that I’m not wrong on this slot. Otherwise in my current worldviews we can never win if this is town.

I HATE this point. I play a lot of psych games at the end of the day. But the player to say psych’d you out in this world would be me because I put the vote to tie and in this world would put pressure on everyone breaking it. So putting it on Tutuu is VERY VERY VERY WEIRD.

I think a mafia is 8balled and it’s you. But I don’t mind because we don’t lose the game on that.

If Marshal is not the 8ball it’s clear that one of me or chomps is the 8ball of doom. At the very worst it goes a day but at that point this agenda is being followed and the game is lost.

Random tangent: I mean if there’s 2 mafia between tutuu/chomps/myself it’s correct to follow this unless one of the three is eightballed and hit it. But let’s be fucking real. Marshall is mafia 100% of the time

My biggest preference for killing tutuu was that I felt game stalls if he lives for another day unless we hit a wolf, but if we flip him and hes town we still learn a lot about, like, may/dia/chomps/mkp/etc.

But in the very last moment I thought voting dia would raise the chances of flipping a wolf significantly vs. staying on tutuu. I was wrong but I think its a pretty understandable reason, and i have yet to see tutuu/chomps justify or explain their votes at all

only read one post out of one and it’s that long

I mean I jumped on it to save one of my highest tr’s. Unless you at some point in the day I had a play to swap off my vote to go onto the 8ball as mafia to hide it under the guise it would be hard to orchestrate that unless my partner is either the tutuu wagon or the dia wagon

(I just thought of a counter point as I was writing it. I could have be the opportunistic person but it was rolling the dice if nobody acted to get the 8ball killed if I was the mafia being the sac for the sac play. At worst im on the oppiste wagon if it’s t/t and the other flips. Like it’s moot but like the opportunity applies to marshal but less of the dice rolling applies to marshal tho)

I was right this entire time or something or those two are the mafia together. But I don’t believe that world at the moment until both marshal and ish flip. Then I’ll think in that world.

Counter point to Marshall + MKP world. I giga wanted Marshal dead unless you think I was looking for the first opportunity to jump off the train to get a better kill. But due to how vocal I wanted either Marshal or Ish dead that day it’s kinda hard to think that imo imo.

This line does not instill a bit of confidence what

But with the power of hindsight both me and ish if one is the mafia was pushing the other with a non 8ball agenda. But let’s scroll to some points in their reads they weren’t forced to go off of their 1st/2nd mafia choice due to a sheild. stares. I was in order to save you! Sure you can argue omg you want to kill 8ball and you pocket a town!!! But I think it was clear that my goal was to kill either marshal or ish due to them being my highest two mafia candidates.