April Showers Overhaul FM - GAME OVER - Town & Survivor Victory!

Honestly if robyn is wolf probably just rb jake and see what haopens to rajidae

Since obv that rb is town since rajidae was in the suspect pool

@Kiiruma any mech reasons from you to not like a parity cop claim from rajidae?

Can you imagine Achro being the 3P killer, arsonist with anti-claim mechanic specifically?

No

:face_with_monocle:

:thinking:

lowers frost 3p equity

It may look like tin foil and it’s certainly going to stay that way, achro is giving me red flags right now

ā€˜Rajidae doesnt want to social solve and wants mechs’
ā€˜Is a cop’

Yeah sure that adds up.

Its robyn and jake who feel demoralized af right now not rajidae

I don’t believe an Arsonist would let this type of PC let go.

Is this an Arsonist claim?

If jokes are claims then yes.

Hahaha…

He does let Rajidae go, since she claims parity cop.

I would find arsonist with dousing mechanic based on anti claims

Fucking terrifying.

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So thats why Achro change his vote to Robyn to maximize the carnage

If i am alive i will full claim tomorrow. Just to respect frost’s paranoia.

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Or they are next in my poe since yesterday

One of these two

@Frostwolf103

Question for you

Who originally brought up arsonist?

@Achromatic
I think i know your role. At least one part of it.
(And by now, Hazard and Vul should it as well, if they understand the question I asked in the neighborhood.)

Hmm, looking back, haven’t you brought this up before I did?

I just did the math, let me cook for a moment.

I calculated the probability of Rajidae’s rolecop getting a difference check based on how many players of each alignment are alive going into night 1. Of course, I remembered to exclude the parity cop themselves in the calculations, but presenting the results this way is clearer.

11 villagers, 2 wolves, 1 third party: 41%
10 villagers, 2 wolves, 2 third parties: 51,3%
10 villagers, 3 wolves, 1 third party: 50%
9 villagers, 3 wolves, 2 third parties: 59%
9 villagers, 4 wolves, 1 third party: 56,4%

So, in the absolute most optimistic scenario for town in terms of setup design and gameplay (wolf executed day 1 AND there are only 4 nontown), the chance is 41%, which I’d consider pretty high. This is when choosing COMPLETELY RANDOMLY. I didn’t consider the fact Icet is a confirmed villager in my calculations, for one, nor did I exclude anyone else.

If the scenario is anything but the most optimistic, the chance of getting a ā€œdifferentā€ result is a coinflip or better. Again, that’s when choosing completely at random and without considering who’s cleared.

Pretty powerful role right here.