[Fortress of Lunacy] Short Fuse

[Altina]

Jarek probably only works if Catbae is town

[Prophylaxis]

snowe interaction analysis

@snowe

actually idk if anyone has mentioned this but im super curious
if there are neutral factions in this game, what does it mean for town to “automatically lose?” do all the townies die on the spot? can we keep playing to spite wolves and make nobody win?

On MTGS, we had a scumtell that went roughly along the lines of “the first person to mention neutrals in a mafia game usually ends up being a wolf”

It’s funny to see that actually bear fruit in this case.

@snowe

speaking of i think it was may’s reads
i love being a lemming off a cliff
VOTE: Hazardwaste

Not super sure if snowe directly refers to a buddy’s reads when stating they’re being a lemming off a cliff.

@snowe

im not up to date with jareks wolf metaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
i do like the thought process shown in this post, its carries a lot of nuance from someone trying to legitimately solve a slot
but also idk how good jarek is at wolfing now

@snowe

this is a towny sort of self-reflection that i think comes from introspection and self-discovery that is really really hard to fake as a wolf
this read is fully hinged on the idea that jarek hasn’t said anything like this before consciously but given that premise, i do think this whole post is very towny

Agree with catbae here in that I think this is likely a wolf making a read about a townie.

@snowe

bold post from someone who last night said they won three champs wolf games without dynig back to back

(seriously i know that you probably do have tells or feel less confident than that would imply but also i dont have any personal meta on you and i havent seen any explicit towntells that stood out to me so shrugze)
(the point being that being “fine” isnt enough for me to slap any read on you)

I’m also not sure if snowe actually slight-shades you like this if the both of you are w/w together.

@rue

VOTE: snowe

I don’t feel very good doing this, but I don’t think it would be fair if I were to brush this thought aside. I think intentionally playing into a poor wolf meta is something that a nervous wolf snowe would be more likely to do than nervous town snowe.

@Rue

@snowe

(i also wanna point out that im a little sus of catbae but only because his push on jarek who i now think is towny gave me flashbacks to how he acted in Worst Setup as a wolf—make a somewhat reasonable push on villas that havent gotten attention and try to ride it)

(did he actually do that in worst setup? idk my memory might be totally shot so )

If he didn’t do that, would you still consider it reason to suspect him?

@Snowe

yeah but itd be significantly weaker cuz itd be general wolf playbook stuff rather than catbae in particular

@Rue

VOTE: O.kazo

@snowe

has your read on me changed, or do you just have a stronger wolfread on him?

@Rue

I think you’ve been posting townier this morning, yes. Your read on catbae was well-thought out, and I think you bringing up Altina’s mention of champs was towny.

@snowe

was there any particular part or step of my thought process on catbae that you think was more likely to come from a villager, or did you mean it in a holistic sense?

@Rue

I think as a wolf you would be more hesitant to push catbae, especially for something you acknowledged looked good on the surface.

@Snowe

understandable
i was hoping to get a flash of a towny spark from you from that read thought process but it was relatively rote (i.e. i dont think it’s ai for you to make that sort of read)
oh well, cest la vie

@Snowe

e.g. if you said something like “i liked the part where she remembered catbae’s push on jarek despite not mentioning it at all at the time” then i would have found that townie

…even if i think that that behavior would have been nai for me but like. you get the point, it’s not a rote thought process that rue would have years of practice making

This is the progression from Rue and Snowe which makes me think they may be wolves together.

Rue joined me on poking Snowe with a stick, then after Memeking gets run up Rue moves off of her onto O.kazo. I think these interactions between them (specifically "was there any particular part or step of my thought process on catbae that you think was more likely to come from a villager, or did you mean it in a holistic sense?") is like super corporate-talk for snowe in particular to say here when mostly they’ve been whimsical, which makes me think this might be a w/w interaction.

[Prophylaxis]

Yeah I’m keeping Wazza and gummybear in the back of my head as people who dominated the last FAM as wolf and are good enough wolf players to conceivably change how they play from game to game.

[Altina]

if I think Rue, I thinking removing Kazo is correct, and then I also kinda just assume based on interactions its Catbae, and by that I think I just remove ash/Jarek because its at odds with how i think wolf!catbae interacts with partners, and my brain immediately goes to Wazza

I want to see how far I can go with this thought, even if I dont trust myself to find an entire team of wolves. There is only one time ive ever done that, and it was like 3 years ago? in poisoner 21

[Prophylaxis]

I think it’s fully possible we can try to solve the game tonight. I don’t think we’d be correct (in particular the bastard setup introduces a lot of questions) but the joy of mafia is that once you find the first wolf the others often come crashing down.

I want Rue and catbae dead based off of snowe interactions. Jarek/May are maybe town. So like, Rue/catbae/Ruby/x is where I’m at or something?

Let me read EoD1 and see who was largely comfortable versus trying to instigate chaos.

[Altina]

ill dive ruby in a bit

[Prophylaxis]

Well snowe didn’t really interact with catbae besides a stated weak wolfread that didn’t go anywhere, but I’m just independently wolfreading him.

@Litten

VOTE: Snowe
What are people thoughts on this player? I saw people pressuring them earlier and then they stopped when they posted the most milotoast Catbae post ever. I feel like they fit in a lot of wolf teams here with the fact that there are six wolves and my town reads being the way they are.

@Altina

Sure I’ll bite
VOTE: snowe

I’ll try to jump in closer to EoD, and move my vote if need be, but be aware I’ll be at work

@Frostwolf103

I think that deserves to be counterwagon indeed

VOTE: snowe

I think everyone here who joined Litten on counterwagoning Snowe is town.

@May

I kinda don’t want to kill snowe to see what happens

There’s no way wolf!May literally says this about a buddy that’s being run up and then votes… Relm of all people, right? That looks like omega bad on the surface.

@May

VOTE: T3

May did hop onto the T3 counterwagon though.

@Prophylaxis

VOTE: T3RMINATOR

I think snowe has a higher chance to clear herself if she’s town than T3R and has posted more content than T3R.

Point and laugh at me?

Odyssey to the Fortress of Lunacy - Night 2 (20/27)

Snowe is towny from mech and wolfy from socials

Torn on this slot. I guess this could be an elaborate fake, but I don’t think w!Snowe actively seeks to draw attention to herself in this manner if her role doesn’t reward her for it, especially given how intensely she focused on having as weak an opener as possible. It kinda goes back to me townreading people who’re actively sabotaging themselves while still doing things with purpose. On a social level: Meh. I have thoughts on the conditio…

This post is probably important if anyone knows how Ash tends to read wolfbuddies.

Odyssey to the Fortress of Lunacy - Night 2 (20/27)

Wait terminator wagon sucks

Odyssey to the Fortress of Lunacy - Night 2 (20/27)

VOTE: snowe

Odyssey to the Fortress of Lunacy - Night 2 (20/27)

VOTE: Snowe

Odyssey to the Fortress of Lunacy - Night 2 (20/27)

Flash wagon snowe gogogogog

Odyssey to the Fortress of Lunacy - Night 2 (20/27)

VOTE: T3 would prefer this over snowe

Odyssey to the Fortress of Lunacy - Night 2 (20/27)

VOTE: Snowe I want better play from T3, but I don’t think they’re mafia here.

Odyssey to the Fortress of Lunacy - Night 2 (20/27)

If snowe is wolf here and T3R is town then I’m going to scream at myself for not trusting my gut >.>

Odyssey to the Fortress of Lunacy - Night 2 (20/27)

i was skeptical of rue for a lot of this day but i think her eod posting is good

Think Hippo and gummy are very likely town based off of EoD1 unless they knew there was no chance snowe was going to go over.

[Altina]

god the rue/catbae/snowe stuff feels extremely damning

[Altina]

@Prophylaxis

This post is probably important if anyone knows how Ash tends to read wolfbuddies.

tbh I think its a very decent post, like the dive of snowe doesnt feel like it was made to protect a partner, and it doesnt feel especially shady? I guess if wolf!ash is good at writing these natural walls on partners, maybe? but otherwise I think it looks good for them

[Prophylaxis]

Vote Count

Ash (8): Litten, catbae, May, tutuu, Hippopablompoyeetus, Prophylaxis, Hazardwaste, Chomps
Memekingpizza (2): Frostwolf103, O.kazo
O.kazo (2): Rue, Jarek
Altina (2): T3RMINATOR, Wazza
T3RMINATOR (2): Cattail_5.0, Memekingpizza
Frostwolf103 (1): Kelsier
Hazardwaste (1): snowe

Not Voting (9): Cattail_IV, iamagummybear, Liattac_VI, meowl, Relm, Ash, Ruby, pandora, Altina

Vote Count

T3RMINATOR (11): Cattail_5.0, Memekingpizza, May, Prophylaxis, Litten, tutuu, O.kazo, Ruby, catbae, Wazza, Altina
snowe (4): Frostwolf103, iamagummybear, Hippopablompoyeetus, Ash
Ash (2): Hazardwaste, Chomps
O.kazo (2): Rue, Jarek
Altina (1): T3RMINATOR
Hazardwaste (1): snowe
Frostwolf103 (1): Kelsier

Not Voting (5): Cattail_IV, Liattac_VI, meowl, Relm, pandora

---

These are the two vote counts btw that I think are the most relevant out of the ones from Day 1.

For the first one, there are eight votes on Ash. If Ash is town, then there’s likely a wolf on this wagon because I don’t think all the wolves votes are on the smaller wagons or not voting. So in town Ash worlds that points me to specifically catbae. If this wagon is in fact all town and maybe Ash is a wolf then maybe pay attention to how this wagon dissipated.

The second one is a little scuffed because of Kelsier’s role, but we know T3M is town, there are 11 votes on his wagon, and the counterwagon is a wolf. It’s extremely likely to me that there are wolves on the tail end of that wagon trying to make it go over, and again that points me to Ruby or catbae.

Maybe this is all confirmation bias but that’s how I’m analyzing these two vote counts atm.

[May]

Ash is a total doomer. I’ve known him to have… not so much spine for standing up when buddies are getting wolfread. I don’t think it’s impossible for him to push agenda, but I think he’d struggle to whole-chestedly argue his partner is town

[Prophylaxis]

Would Ash fence-sit like crazy on his buddy while they’re being run up is what I’m trying to ponder.

Anyways this is most of what you’re getting from me tonight, I’ve spent way too much time in the past 24 hours thinking about this game and need a long break. If y’all need anything from me before SoD3 let me know.

[Prophylaxis]

catbae/Rue/Ruby/x for wolves atm, not terribly sure who x is yes but hopefully they will come out of the wash.

If I’m wrong on this then we can re-evaluate per usual, but I intend on being a consistent threat to the wolves until I die.

[Ruby]

In that world i came in today and said am soloing the game i activly sused rue and stated that and didnt give any line to catbae.

Not to mention my views on snowe.

Like me wolf means i decided i could solo while in post mash fatigue which isnt ever a case if youve read any of my games I am very anti bus

[Ruby]

Alao just read chomps flip did he say a target since he had a likely 70% accurate check last night

[May]

Rue is so consensus wolf it’s weird

[Prophylaxis]

Odyssey to the Fortress of Lunacy - Night 2 (20/27)

no i meant i sent the text as my night action

[Altina]

so where do u want to go?

[Ruby]

I know i didnt trust her day 1 but feels its just evolved off there.

Same happened to snowe really aside a fee oitliars and spots.

[Ruby]

Tyty the cop doing that is wowee but sure i guess

Didnt really realize it was over a night action