i was not, i was too busy being gay iirc
ah yes trust the mafia member
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Cool. Hippo (both games w/ him now he was scum) has a 100% record of convincing me not to have my vote on them by EoD every single day phase I have played with them. Now he is gone. Thank you for that; now I will try to return the favor. I feel like I can navigate games with D1 scum flips better than most. This D2 following the scum flip is usually dumb as shit because statistically there is a higher ratio of hits to misses and many town seem to struggle to understand where they’re supposed to be looking and end up voting out a slot that has no fucking chance of flipping scum given an accurate. I think it would be cool to get back-to-back scum flips but I’m assuming it’s going to be like herding cats and the best I can do is tell you repeatedly which ideas of yours are counterproductive while pointing you in the right direction.
Initially I was taught that D1 scum flip is always due to bussing and while usually true there are a few signs I noticed that can indicate it’s not the case:
–the wagon on scum isn’t stacked, it’s a small-medium wagon and there are many smaller wagons
–the wagon on scum was a flash wagon that either fully emerged from nothing at EoD or did exist already but gained most of its votes at the last second
–there is a kookiness to the way the lim played out due to factors like an odd amount of slots not showing up EoD or very late FPS claims/plays from town causing the wagons to both shift and become stuck in ways that aren’t organic or predictable.
Preferably you would see as many of these signs as possible (like all of them.) In that case you can make the smallish number of surviving wagon slots pseudo-IC and form a voting block to get a very strong advantage. This number of surviving onwagon slots in these games is already small enough because the wagon barely goes over and then one of them gets killed every night so unless you’re very, very lucky it’s typically a voting block of 3-5 slots. You always vote offwagon when you have enough of these indicators that it was not a bus. Somehow every town seems to manage to do the opposite and talk themselves into killing one of their pseudo-ICs wasting a day and damaging their small voting block even faster. In these games the slots that move their votes around “suspiciously” EoD are not worth going after right away or sometimes ever because scum were either already parked on a counterwagon during a “nonsuspicious” time, absent from thread during EoD or frozen and pretending to be absent from thread EoD.
Now let’s look at this game. This is a game that has absolutely none of the above signs. That alone is a strong enough indicator that there is at least 1 scum onwagon in a stereotypical “good” spot in the votecount. This game though has multiple additional qualitative signs that-at least to me-make it clear that there is at least one solid bussing scum. These extra signs to me:
–hippo has a “bussee” meta; he allegedly asks to be bussed in scum chat on the norm. In my other game with him he was being pushed the whole time by his partner.
–the contrivance of how a mason claim still ends the day with 9 votes when at that point you can just vote other suspects and kill the mason claim after confirming that they are somehow a magical immortal immune to night kills and have a very mysterious mason partner that doesn’t exist. I’ve seen slots that are more +scum and have far worse claims get passes to check if they are real. The dogpile was a bit more likely to be TMI-assisted IMO due to the presence of Hippo’s mason claim.
So this is a game IMO where we can assess with confidence that there is at least one busser. If this is a game with four scum (four or three?) then I’d say two is pretty likely and otherwise the non-busser scum slots were almost always slots that were AFK or pretending to be AFK because they were afraid of the “late-busser accusation paranoia.” The late-busser accusation paranoia is a pattern I noticed where scum would rather be seen as someone who lurked out EoD offwagon rather than risk being accused of being a late busser. Based on this, depending on the context, I’d delay looking at any outlier slot who jumped on Hippo at the very last second for seemingly no reason because these slots are very >rand town IMO. I wouldn’t overcommit to this because late-bussing is a thing especially if it’s one of multiple onwagon scum slots and some players aren’t paranoid about it as scum; I just find objectively at least in these situations that the last slot at the end there that looks real “suspicious” is very >rand town. Similar, slots that move their votes around EoD in real “suspicious” ways that don’t indicate they have any TMI are very >rand town. Players moving their votes off of hippo EoD in response to the mason claim or anything else are also very >rand town.
The slot(s) that we are looking for are well-positioned and very clear about their suspicion of hippo in-thread. That doesn’t necessarily mean that they have to be hard to find at all; in fact I feel that more town have an intuition about fake scum reads than they do about how they are supposed to go about playing the game following a D1 scum flip. If you are going to point out an offwagon slot that you think might be scum then the burden of proof is on you to justify how their gameplay made any sense whatsoever. Again, a solid explanation for an offwagon scum slot is something like “they didn’t have access to the thread until the Hippo wagon was too big and by that point they would rather continue pretending to be AWOL than post and potentially be accused of not voting hippo, voting someone other than hippo or of voting hippo at the last second fo” If you start writing up a post on a pet scum read and it’s an offwagon scum slot and your explanation is any derivative of “they were trying to save hippo” when their choice had no actual chance of saving hippo and we can already make a confident assessment that scum were most definitely not trying to save hippo then your pet offwagon scum read is worthless tinfoil and maybe will lead directly to wasting time during D2 and if it gains traction will result in a completely useless flip. If you have either no explanation for why your pet offwagon scum read was offwagon in the first place or a very convoluted explanation for why your pet offwagon scum read was offwagon in the first place then maybe question how useful investong in this pet offwagon scum read really is right now compared to assessing which of the onwagon slots have a sincere scum read on hippo and which ones seem to have TMI.
I’m going to submit this post now and if I see wagons only on offwagon slots and a bunch of theories being pitched about pet offwagon scum reads that can be debunked in as much time as it takes to have cogent slot then I am going to become an AngryFrog.
Great. Were they onwagon?
Yes thank you +100000000 hearts please be town ty
i’m pretty sure by which i mean i noted this and am double checking that the off-wagon slots are like
me
you
catbae (dead)
and a bunch of people who weren’t there
oh i forgot hippo & frostwolf (was there an hour before eod)
so that leaves {carbon kiiruma beancat}
this is to say i agree with you but only because the observation is trivial. Also note wagons were at 6/6; a lot of the mason stuff consisted of
-hippo not wanting to claim partner
-hippo claiming beancat after a while
-catbae (known town) pointing out that this was suspicious
(trivial from your perspective jury’s still out on my end as to whether you’re town)
VOTE: Eliza
I don’t remember any of their posts and they were onwagon in a “good” spot.
im pandora
2 Likes
dve
eve
i havent been here for the whole game wyat is happening
yooo hippo as a wolf
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while i agree that scum were probably bussing and have been arguing to that effect, i am not interested in playing your arbitrary games regarding who is a “valid vote target” today
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you are not the king of the lobby man
RIP Catbae. A nice simplistic vanilla-y role.
TBH I thought Hip’s behaviour was within his townrange but nice job to those who clocked him
But either way it’s a new dawn, a new day and… the same life as before but with 2 less players
nvm kiiruma town
finally getting around to backreading
twenty five actual minutes after saying he is ready to play mafia, hippo makes it to post number seven (7) in the thread. bold opinion he probably checked wolfchat first
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Im here now!
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wonderful
what are your thoughts going into d2; being wagoned, hippo’s flip, etc.