Frieren: Beyond Journey's End Mafia - Night 3 [12/17]

[diafiasco]

can we make jason/melatonin wagons happen today bring the game state hurtling back to the first 24 hours

[melatonin]

and what if they’re wrong. this deal might slightly appeal to gummy, but it doesn’t to me, and you should know that

meow

[jason.mrrown]

then i live with the consequences

[melatonin]

actually gummy says she also hates the deal bc her reads are always cherrypicked to advance wolf agenda

meow

[jason.mrrown]

that’s why i’m asking her to give me ONE person to shield. If I deviate everyone else can kill me

[jason.mrrown]

conditional on you flipping town

[melatonin]

tell jason that he doesn’t get to alleviate his guilt from when we flip town by shielding this one rando

-gummy, being posted by meow

also no offense, but I think that’s a pretty poorly-thought ask, given how the last player gummy hardshielded as town flipped in this game

[diafiasco]

I like mechanics so I will give you a counter offer

You give me: your role claim
I give you: my attention

[melatonin]

you posted earlier you didn’t like mechanics and wanted socials…

and I don’t like claiming unless I have to. how much do you want a claim? also I hate how late it’s gotten, and I am still like 3/4 of the way through one (1) iso rip, and it’s literally me going wow I think frog might be town so

meow

[diafiasco]

@melatonin

how much do you want a claim?

like 7/10? i think wolves are obligated to SHOOT inside the TOWNCORE right now and you’re not in it regardless of what u claim

[jason.mrrown]

ok fair enough

i’ll give you space to do your thing for now

[melatonin]

content from gummy: she doesn’t think snow was the first to bus hippo & someone was bussing hippo before them on the wagon (this is how it can still be tutuu moment)

meow pov: I uh think everyone on the wagon before is town, but you guys can discuss or whatever.

meow

[melatonin]

@diafiasco

i think wolves are obligated to SHOOT inside the TOWNCORE right now

yeah I agree

meow

[Chomps]

not really, just a feeling from how you posted over d2

if i had that dayvig I’d come into the thread shooting you though I’m a gambler

[diafiasco]

go ahead then

[36501]

chomps kinda villagery but i have to read the slot like it’s day 1 because beancat didn’t play the game she signed up for

[Chomps]

town

[Chomps]

your job is done

[melatonin]

I go into this iso sus of frog and the first (third) post I see is this:

@AngryFrog

Oh hey “snow” wtf I’ve heard of you before, I was being compared to you. This website feels like that island from the series of unfortunate events where everything eventually washes up on its shores. I was told D1 in a webdip game that I came off as a slightly less pretentious version of you, snow. I’m not sure if I’m OK with that. I dislike being called a “slightly less than” version of anything to anyone…on MU someone said I was a “more mean” version of dirtydan and that made me feel good.

akin to the argument of meow/hippo and gummy/snowe unpaired, but. this does read to me as genuine? totally would happen in wolfchat before game starts I feel. and this is like an extended conversation in thread that recurs. so like.

@AngryFrog

If you have gone by “snow” on other mafia sites and have been playing for more than a few years then it’s very unlikely (though still possible) that I wasn’t being compared specifically to you.

I don’t have a “shit posting type” I sort players into so it could help me answer if you clarify what you mean.

@snow

This is my first forum mafia game ever, so it’s pretty much guaranteed that you weren’t being compared specifically to me

@AngryFrog

Touchè! Does that mean there isn’t a “shit posting type” that you sort for either as you are adapting to forum mafia from another form of play?

[first half of d1 I isoed earlier, and it’s just the odd hydra and rsro fixation which I still hate but. his posting gets so much better after, so whatever maybe not ai]

@AngryFrog

You’re the first person to ping me in a way I didn’t like. Want to fight for no good reason?

think unpaired with kiiruma as well, this doesn’t sound forced

@AngryFrog

That’s fucking pathetic and a pretty bad sign for the lobby. On a skim I saw:

FrOg ShOwEd aGeNdA bEcAuSe ThEy WaNt To SoRt ThE HyDrA fIrSt

FrOg DiD nOt KnOw ThErE aRe TwO hYdRa

I CaN’t CoUnT hOw MaNy TiMeS FrOg SaY RsRo In OtHeR GaMes

FrOg HaS pLaYed SeVeRaL gAmEs On ThIs SiTe WhY dId He SaY hE nOt KnOw ThE uI

So yeah if that’s the “best” this lobby has going for it right now then the PoE sucks and we need to get better wagons going.

crashout starts early

diafiasco (4): jason.mrrown, melatonin, Leafia, 36501
Eve (2): tutuu, Hippopablompoyeetus
Hippopablompoyeetus (2): catbae, Frostwolf103
tutuu (1): Eve
jason.mrrown (1): carbonated
beancat (1): soweli
AngryFrog (1): diafiasco
Not Voting (5): Willow, Kiiruma, snow, beancat, AngryFrog

@AngryFrog

This slot is town…it’s not hard

We need to build a wagon on a slot that’s a more useful flip that actually helps us solve the game. this threadstate is not good for town because this day phase is getting wasted. Everyone shrugging and agreeing on the same two slots being “good votes” for extremely dubious reasons + static wagons + passive play + low contention over status quo means that you goobers settled on a bad PoE and scum are ready to watch you waste your time getting info from flips you could have already seen coming.

easily commits to a hard defense of dia here. good look I think. maintains the aggression/frustration earlier of believing the current threadstate is bad

@AngryFrog

OoOoOhHhH a SlOt Is TrYiNg To ShOw InItIaTiVe AnD sOlVe ThE gAmE iT mUsT bE sCuM tRyInG tO iNdUcE cHaOs In OuR aMaZiNg SoLvEs

man these are better upon rereading

@AngryFrog

If we all agree on something then it must be right. I mean like, we’re ALL on the same side, right? There are no secret teams in here with ulterior motives? I think what must be happening is that the 1 person who wants to go against everyone else and challenge the status quo is probably the most likely to be lying. Yeah, yeah that makes sense. It’s 1 person challenging the status quo who is the problem and we all agree the same two slots are scummy because we all have the same objective and Everything Makes Sense If You Don’t Think About It At All. Very nice. Good detective work. Bravo.

top wagon is still dia at 4 votes here (votes are unchanged from earlier)

@AngryFrog

Jason is town I think

The gummy cat hydra is obvious town

Dia is obvious town

Leafia is obvious town

Soweli is not obvious town and that bothers me:

VOTE: soweli

Tutuu seemed townie when I first started interacting with them but they should have a better ability to read the thread than this.

does seem to still think soweli could be evil (maybe consistent with his rsro read earlier?). but soweli votes hippo, and frog is quite OK with this

@AngryFrog

Okay very awkward crosspost

VOTE: Hippo

I don’t trust you yet but I’m willing to give anyone a chance who actually has a shot at being onto scum right now

[giant frog wolfcase from soweli drops]

@AngryFrog

Yeah you’re probably town because you don’t have TMI about my alignment at all. The bad news is that your case was wrong but the good news is that you helped me find you town. IDK if you consider that a win but I’m used to being tunneled and I will consider it a win. Welcome to the town pile.

I think this is a good post upon rereading it. it reminds me of frog townreading jason for pushing him all of beatings 4.

@AngryFrog

Yes I feel the righteous fury. We did wrong you by holding you to a standard of towniness that is not even achievable on a consistent basis. It’s very annoying to be pushed for that. I understand. I don’t know how AI it is; I was just trying to solve the game and maybe the other slot was too (I don’t know.)

also good post generally

@AngryFrog

Okay I’m down to flash wagon people if you seem townie.

in response to hippo defending himself

@AngryFrog

Okay. Uh. I am down to flash wagon other slots. I guess I’m a bit more reticent than usual due to becoming a liability by being unwilling in that last game we played to actually vote you out.

trying to parse this. frog is willing to not someone over hippo. but he’s reluctant because last game (beatings 4?) he didn’t vote out wolf hippo & doesn’t want to make the same mistake again? I think this line of reasoning is good

@Hippopablompoyeetus

Angry most likely mafia but their posting right now is fine

@Hippopablompoyeetus

I didnt like your early posting but i dont want to hang you because i want a you/jason dream team redemption arc

I thought this might be antispew with frog as mafia at some point; but now I’m townreading frog, so I think it might just be doubly genuine.

Hippopablompoyeetus (3): catbae, soweli, 36501
Eve (2): tutuu, jason.mrrown
tutuu (1): Eve
jason.mrrown (1): carbonated
AngryFrog (1): diafiasco
diafiasco (1): Leafia
carbonated (1): Hippopablompoyeetus
beancat (1): AngryFrog
Not Voting (6): Willow, Kiiruma, snow, beancat, Frostwolf103, melatonin

@AngryFrog

I really want frosty to be town I like having someone else around that is also committed to doing their own thing

this is a cute thought I think?

@AngryFrog

All the Hippo votes prob a town flip

VOTE: beancat

hmmm but I kinda think this does reflect his earlier “if everyone is fine voting the person they’re probably town” mindset regarding dia/himself. so it’s not too bad

@AngryFrog

You guys know it would be great if I were scum in this game because I feel like I wrote some witty posts that will incentivize you guys to keep me around a bit longer and at the same time I’m not too clear what is actually going on with the actual progress of our solve. So yeah I don’t know. I guess in some ways, even though I hate being piled on, I’d rather be piled on than have no idea who I’m supposed to be mistrusting.

I like this post because I can relate to the latter half

@AngryFrog

-Gummy meow hydra ive fallen into pocket and can’t get out. Like every other post pings me town in some way and they do seem to be actively solving when I’m not sure it was necessary if they are scum
-dia has no clue how to read me in a way that makes it very clear they don’t have TMI. On top of that they have put a lot of thought into some of their posts. On top of that like every single slot in this game basically shruggdd and said dia would be a good vote when they clearly weren’t and that is a very strong indicator the slot is town who is getting piled on.
-jason im biased because I do feel regret about targeting them so hard with my rage from a previous game. One of their skills is that they are a very good communicator and I don’t know if they weaponize this as scum but like I understand all their posts and they just seem like town trying to solve the game
-soweli is lock town I didn’t think at all about whatever theory they came up with regarding my scum meta, so I can’t attest to how cracked their tinfoil got but I saw as evidence they quoted some game I played with vikuale2 so they dug really deep to find evidence to make whatever connection and that makes me optimistic that their tinfoil is pretty cracked.

I like these reasons

@AngryFrog

Also, I want to kill a slot that did shit all (objectively) today because I think those are +scum and we may benefit from deciding on active players later in the game.

given that our two flips so far are hippo and snow, this post reflects really well I think

@AngryFrog

Leafia is town. Just meta. There is a different timbre to the sound of their posts in a way that is most definitely fakeable by scum but allegedly leafia is still working on that. They made some posts too that seemed fundamentally wrong which makes me think they don’t have TMI.

Okay five town reads if that’s pure then that’s good for D1

this is funny & well, I kinda do think it’s pure at the moment

@AngryFrog

Uhhhhhh

VOTE: carbonated

sheeps my (gummy’s) vote. I thought this was sus, but it honestly fits fine with what seems to be frog frustrated w/ everyone being so accepting of hippo’s death (esp w/ the mason claim?) & seeking a counterwagon & voting with someone he has just said he townreads very hard

@AngryFrog

Yeah I’ma sheep yall and hope for the best. I think other slots have a better chance at being findable if carbon so it’s ~ok for D1 even if wrong

sure

=== end of day 1

@AngryFrog

Cool. Hippo (both games w/ him now he was scum) has a 100% record of convincing me not to have my vote on them by EoD every single day phase I have played with them. Now he is gone. Thank you for that; now I will try to return the favor.

wifomy post, I don’t entirely like, but frog did make this point during d1. shruggg

@AngryFrog

many town seem to struggle to understand where they’re supposed to be looking and end up voting out a slot that has no fucking chance of flipping scum given an accurate. I think it would be cool to get back-to-back scum flips but I’m assuming it’s going to be like herding cats and the best I can do is tell you repeatedly which ideas of yours are counterproductive while pointing you in the right direction.

@AngryFrog

Somehow every town seems to manage to do the opposite and talk themselves into killing one of their pseudo-ICs wasting a day and damaging their small voting block even faster.

we almost did this with tutuu. I am. admittedly. assuming town tutuu very hard right now

@AngryFrog

there is at least 1 scum onwagon in a stereotypical “good” spot in the votecount. This game though has multiple additional qualitative signs that-at least to me-make it clear that there is at least one solid bussing scum. These extra signs to me:

frog pushes a hippo bussed narrative (as many, including me, were)

@AngryFrog

–the contrivance of how a mason claim still ends the day with 9 votes when at that point you can just vote other suspects and kill the mason claim after confirming that they are somehow a magical immortal immune to night kills and have a very mysterious mason partner that doesn’t exist. I’ve seen slots that are more +scum and have far worse claims get passes to check if they are real. The dogpile was a bit more likely to be TMI-assisted IMO due to the presence of Hippo’s mason claim.

yeah sure this is reasonable I think

@AngryFrog

then maybe question how useful investong in this pet offwagon scum read really is right now compared to assessing which of the onwagon slots have a sincere scum read on hippo and which ones seem to have TMI.

I don’t remember if frog actually pushed people on this rip guess we’ll get to it. who even was on the hippo wagon. but like the reasoning behind the entire post does sound kinda believable to me I guess sigh, unfort if we believe in the willow town and tutuu town, it means it’s just wrong? actually snow was on it, would it really be just snow? snow would have lacked the threadpull to get the wagon off hippo certainly though they didn’t try very hard to push hippo either (as I would expect a bus would look to maximize towncred)

@AngryFrog

Yes thank you +100000000 hearts please be town ty

frog supports eve’s read that tutuu bussed

@AngryFrog

VOTE: Eliza

I don’t remember any of their posts and they were onwagon in a “good” spot.

@AngryFrog

Yes vote onwagon there’s some busser hiding in there and this day always gets wasted

@AngryFrog

Then let’s not go on a goosechase offwagon

@AngryFrog

I have absolutely nothing against the eliza wagon in fact i hope it grows until i hear some reason to trust them. All i know is eliza voted hippo and they left absolutely no impression on me in any of their posts. I can not remember the content within a single post eliza has written.

is fine with willow. jason pointed out it was interesting frog didn’t consider willow threadspewed town for the same reason he though dia/frog/hippoish were threadspewed town. I don’t know what to make of that though. frog is very determined to find a busser

also frog really did vote eve apparently under the confusion of thinking it was willow? and just never changed that vote despite being corrected at least twice, so I don’t know man

@AngryFrog

I think ur doin p good i dont always retain which one of u made which post but i see ur slot’s posts constantly and it makes me feel safe

pocketed bc I get this feeling all the time

@AngryFrog

Can you tell me more? Idk if it’s AI but im curious because this is some of the strangest play ive ever seen and im curious if it changes to a different kind of strange as scum or if it’s an emulation of his town strange.

I’ve been thinking the same though

@AngryFrog

Oh willow this is not a good look for u we are lookin for a busser and u might fit the bill. How do you plead?

@AngryFrog

It’s not intuitive to me to share about an absence of signs indicating danger but maybe it’s something I can work in. I agree with tutuu’s assessment here to such an extent that I don’t feel motivated to play devil’s advocate gasp .

@AngryFrog

This town clearing of polarized slots seems to allow for more situations where I see entire lobbies get swept and jumpscared by the postgame flips. I guess ultimately it’s good that there is meta indicating our reads are correct; it’s just something that’s also good to remain skeptical about IMO because again it’s the factor that I see become the most dangerous when manipulated by scum.

which slots are polarized @AngryFrog

@AngryFrog

For the latter part, high paranoia gamestate reads where it’s like numbers + tutuu working together doesnt make sense to me in this context because in that scenario then more of the elements above should be present. With the “cant be that easy” solves then it depends on what that means cause scum can be starting to lurk out and if it looks too obvious to be true it can still just be true. It’s possible that the busser is also lurking now and then one of the last scum slots is in the quiet lurker slots who was offwagon for example. Im still fundamentally opposed to the idea of looking offwagon though without a good reason. OTOH beancat for example could be a good offwagon read maybe w/ the rationale they were either not around to bus hippo or felt it was too late and preferred to lurk it out.

I think I like that frog is accepting this alternative explanation as also reasonable rather than maintaining an insistence on a busser theory? but still sticking to his philosophy here. despite still voting eve and stuff (?!)

@AngryFrog

Fair enough.

__
__

The main thing I have against snow is that they’re quiet and could have randed some scum PR role and been instructed to bus hippo. This applies to Willow(Eliza) too in that they’re not necessarily quiet but I still have yet to retain a single word they’ve written.

@AngryFrog

Uhhh okay well shucks now I feel morally obligated to try to find you as town.

–Do you remember why you ended up on Hippo D1?
–Is there anyone you think is pushing you in bad faith right now?
–If you go down here do you believe town is still in a good place?
–If I took a look at your ISO is there anything I should know about that you want to tell me first?

I don’t think frog has the incentive to do this if he’s wolf, and willow is town here.

@AngryFrog

Oh shit I wasnt sure but i did think there were only 2 left. That lends more credibility to the TMI/threadspew reads about scum not going along with willow(eliza) so easily if it was about to result in losing a second member. As far as I’m aware; the numbers didn’t quite reach a point with Willow that confirmed this was going on but it got pretty close.

@AngryFrog

I thought i was voting willow(eliza)

VOTE: elizathepsycho

~8 min between those posts. not knowing number of maf left is vaguely good too shrug. happened to gummy too

@AngryFrog

Gummy, Dia, jason, soweli

Leafia was supposed to be in here as well just for having a completely different timbre than in their scum game. Maybe count them as town lean. Similar kind of to you though maybe you’re lower because I still don’t have a great understanding of how you solve. Your play here is noticeably different at least from the Ice Cream and I can buy your votes around Hippo don’t look like you have TMI

Tutuu and to a lesser extent numbers probably go below you there where I think they probably are town running up scum but could be power scum and if so I believe there will be signs of danger and we don’t need to flip them today.

eod2 town readlist is the same as eod1 but slightly + townlean on frost + adds eve next post I am too tired to quote

@AngryFrog

Tutuu and to a lesser extent numbers probably go below you there where I think they probably are town running up scum but could be power scum and if so I believe there will be signs of danger and we don’t need to flip them today.

think it’s good he’s not pushing paranoia gamestate here

I did not expect this to take that long esp since I’ve read all the posts & there’s less than 200 of them. big sad. no wonder no one wants to iso us. frog has some reasoning stuff I’m a bit ?? on, but I do kinda genuinely believe he’s unpaired with snow, and I think most of his weird voting things makes sense with the mindset he’s been claiming to have (players whose votes don’t have much pushback are town, so find a different wagon?) and I think it’s good he wanted to kill lowposters & didn’t defend snow at all really. also I think the dia defense reflects really well on him in hindsight.

I thought it was weird he was online and chose not to vote btwn the tied wagons eod2 though, given snow makes sense as his preferred “busser” vote over “paranoia gamestate vote” tutuu. that is my main reservation/reason why he could be mafia. but surely he pushes willow harder if this is true though? assuming town willow etc.

meow

[melatonin]

too tired to have more thoughts on this I feel weirdly exhausted

also tutuu felt unpaired from snow in two posts I saw, let me grab them

meow