Odyssey to the Fortress of Lunacy - Game Over - Conspirators Win!

[Jarek]

Sorry if you are town I’m most likely not helping. If you are a wolf…Well I’ll still apologise, FM should be fun, and if it isn’t fun I don’t want to contribute to that.

[pandora]

@Ash

I think his point is that if he (as presumably a town member) got that, mafia could have gotten similar things.
I strongly agree that this isn’t a reason to discard mech entirely, but I understand his perspective here.

@Ash

Mech informs social reads.
We can’t trust mech to straight-up give us the answers, but we can analyze how people respond to the purported mech.

@Ash

For example, you could have used the Innocent Child reveal on a contentious slit to generate reads, to see how people would respond to that slot being “confirmed town”.
We’re not asking you to blindly trust mech, but that doesn’t mean it’s inherently useless. We can find meaning in how it shapes discussion.

sensible reaction overall to this whole conversation

@Ash

I feel like t!Tutuu has been figured for quite a while, but, uh, pop off?

@Ash

I feel like there are more obvious indicators for Tutuu being town, but fair enough. Sorry.

mmmmm

@Ash

Like, I actively was trying to route conversation regarding Tutuu back on topic

ok this syraight uo didnt happen

@Ash

I’m making the point that both town and mafia feel content with the existing wagon (though me missing that Tutuu pushed for hammer on MKP is a big miss).

willingness to frankly admit mistakes in thread is >town i think

@Ash

Me when I bodyguard Litten and he still dies.

@catbae

dunno i don’t really like ash immediately coming in and claiming a failed protect on lutten

@Ash

I feel like I would’ve just claimed doctor instead of bodyguard if I were making it up, but whatever.

@catbae

why did you feel the need to say anything at all?

@May

Also yeah Ash you literally didn’t need to say anything either

@Ash

It felt important to note that Litten got strongmanned/bus driven?

idkkkkkk i think this is a good reason. this is where my head would be at as bodyguard

@Ash

Binary search time.

@Ash

It’s Snowe.
Binary search for the win.

over rand town i think

I think ash is just town

[pandora]

MEOW MEOW MEOW IM BOREDD

[pandora]

MEOWWW

[Lord_Archibald_Curst]

Vote Count

---

catbae (2): Jarek, Wisdom
pandora (2): Frostwolf103, catbae
Rue (1): Wazza
Ruby (1): Rue
May (1): Hippopablompoyeetus
Hippopablompoyeetus (1): O.kazo

Not Voting (10): Cattail_5.0, Cattail_IV, iamagummybear, Liattac_VI, May, Memekingpizza, meowl, pandora, Ash, Ruby

[iamagummybear]

Just had a thought

Weren’t a great majority of people sussing snowe d2? Not sure about the numbers but I find it hard to believe that snowe was pushed out to protect another mafia member- because snowe would likely have been able to kill n2.

[iamagummybear]

I think I can get close to solving if I read thread again and try to think about how wolves most likely approached D2 with snowe

[iamagummybear]

Also bruh why is thread so dead

[Jarek]

I am of two minds and need the opinion of another about catbae. The tilt could easily go either way for me but is hard for me to read into in general.

@iamagummybear

Also bruh why is thread so dead

It’s 4am here

[Jarek]

Though to their credit I am myself difficult to read and at times obtuse, I think they think they had a legitimate argument against me for some time, one that I walked into myself by being poor at showing how I make connections.

[Ash]

You think that D2 was “mafia pushes Snowe in an effort to get an extra kill, only for it to backfire”?

[iamagummybear]

Well now thst you mention it I like this idea and i will be claiming it for credit

But what i originally meant was like idk snowe was so sussed that mafia surely could have gotten an extra kill out of them and as im writing this i realize my earlier logic was very faulty okay rip

[Ruby]

But she would only have two marks at night no?

Since unless am mistaken if so please lmk asap you can only use a day ability once per phase so couldnt get to the kill?

[Ruby]

Ive been at work just got off and about to drive home

[iamagummybear]

No you’re right im so stupid

I thought she got to place a marker on everyone that scumread her not just one per day phase lol

[May]

I’m watching Glee

[May]

At a frat

[Ruby]

Your good I thought the otherway at first glance as well.

Honestly makes the role noteable weak

[Ash]

Ok, one quick skim later, I don’t think that’s the case?

History of D2 Snowe Suspicion

Rue brings up Litten’s reads, and Proph mentions locking in if w!Snowe, but the first real push on Snowe was from Tutuu.

@tutuu

lets execute snowe or prophy trust. thats what litten would have wanted

Frost pushes MKP, with a secondary argument being his wolf equity with Snowe.

@Frostwolf103

snowe would have answered my questions at day 1 and this also happens snowe is defending memekingpizza

Ì think he’s mafia because of his reactions …during my fake redcheck who’s now dead at EoD1.

Snowe appears on various PoE lists (Tutuu, Proph, Hippo, and Frost); Proph in particular notes that Snowe pushes Hazard and MKP, the former having flipped town and the latter being the Litten ghost. Proph, Frost, May, and Tutuu vote her.

@Prophylaxis

VOTE: snowe

@Frostwolf103

VOTE: snowe

@May

VOTE: snowe

@tutuu

VOTE: snowe

I later confirm that they are Litten’s top mafread.

@Ash

It’s Snowe.

Rue expresses concern that the Snowe wagon is forming rather fast and, in their view, upon a weak foundation.

@Rue

I don’t like the snowe wagon. I know it’s early in the day, but I don’t get the feeling that it’s well founded - I had the same issue with the T3 wagon yesterday, and that flipped town.

Altina chooses to vote Catbae, noting that she wished to split from the consensus and noting:

@Altina

If okazo is a wolf it’s likely not snowe

She later says:

@Altina

• Kazo’s ability targetting snowe, is still interesting, they claim it was random
• Snowe’s reaction to it (I kinda dont think its w/w, but I wouldnt bet my life on it)

Snowe comes in, notes that she’s not doing well, and leaves.

Catbae later comes in, debates with Altina, and argues with regards to Snowe:

@catbae

i’m not solidly convinced snowe is town but i don’t think the case against her is all that compelling and it feels like a case where the game gets locked in a status quo where people are unable to look outside the same handful of suspects

He votes Pandora, and Altina follows.

Meowl enters thread and puts Snowe with O.kazo in its bottom tier, saying:

@meowl

snowe is a bit weak if that makes sense. I feel like the reads they are making just aren’t much
the rest of the time i feel they are just floating in the backround and not doing much

It later votes Snowe.

In light of the Snowe push, Hippo calls for Snowe to claim.

@Hippopablompoyeetus

I think snowe should claim

@Hippopablompoyeetus

Theyre gonna be a wagon all day from cw nature and multiple other towny ppl have claimed

@Hippopablompoyeetus

@snowe whats ur deal king

Snowe responds to the ping and specifically answers Proph’s inquiry on her Rue thoughts with:

@snowe

i tried to get [Rue] to do things i would see as a towntell and she hasn’t, so so far with the things ive read

May swaps to Catbae, though maintaining that Snowe was still a scummy slot:

@May

I don’t feel like any of the safer hits are mafia. snowe maybe but that’s it, I’m not convinced on anybody else

@May

snowe: That “intentionally playing to wolf meta” claim was sooo weird and I can’t stop thinking about it… Litten trust but I shouldn’t sheep

Proph later writes a longpost on Snowe in #3540 and #3541, where he argues that Snowe is tired mafia and uses that post as a jumping off point to argue that they are W/W with Catbae (the top wagon at the time).

Tutuu puts a legacy to kill all of Proph-Catbae-Snowe, believing that all three are wolves.

Around this time, the Catbae vote starts to die down, with the thread switching to a Proph vote.
Ruby argues for a Snowe vote:

@Ruby

@Memekingpizza

Catbae could be town and would rather have Proph go over

Okay I still lean snowe but can understand that?

@Ruby

@Rue

I have the distinct sense that thread consensus is shifting based on which players in the PoE are currently active, and I don’t believe that’s a sustainable way to kill wolves.

Agree for what it’s worth.

Snowe feels mostly lost votes cause activity

MKP votes Snowe, returning the slot to a three-way tie for top wagon.

Proph prods Jarek for his thoughts on Snowe, with Jarek retorting:

@Jarek

If you’re trying to insinuate I’m ignoring reading my wolf partner and you think we’re paired then I’m calling it out right here and now.

Really it just boils down to not seeing the point in wasting time reading a slot literally the entire game has talked about. It’s not going to get anywhere to parrot what other people have said.

@Jarek

I think Snowe is the likeliest to hit a wolf - but not guaranteed.

Hippo and May later move onto Wisdom, Wisdom votes Snowe, and Tutuu is murdered, putting the Snowe wagon back in the top slot.
Wisdom justifies her vote on Snowe:

@Wisdom

Snowe is either a wolf or a mid/late game danger because wolves are never killing them and it’s quite to read their wildcard behaviour properly so they’ll get yeeted eventually anyway and their ISO doesn’t seem like they’re too keen to help town atm

May later also votes Snowe.

Frost states that they think “Snowe is definitely wolf here”; when Gummy asks for elaboration, he says:

@Frostwolf103

I believe snowe’s vote on Okazo for starters isn’t genuine and it’s interesting that people also suspect Prophylaxis and catbae to similar extend, presumingly by wolves, to accuse a town-aligned on Okazo’s wagon instead.

@Frostwolf103

VC of 1793 is Rue, Jarek, Prophylaxis, Altina, snowe and catbae

I am analyizing these wagon jumps from Day 1, I have put a wall of text explaining this and this is why I am not voting Prophylaxis, catbae and Altina are not my focus because they are jumping out of Okazo first and the remaining on that wagon were Rue, Jarek and snowe, whom I have most except Jarek as bussing wolves.

Jarek joins the wagon 14 minutes to EoD, later noting:

@Jarek

Either [wolves]'ve already accepted this is going over and have done for hours or this is a town ← this one is the more likely outcome in my opinion

Ruby corroborates that sentiment:

@Ruby

If snowe is a hit wolves knew this today they were gonan die

Several players - Gummy, Altina, Catbae, and Wisdom - note Snowe’s silence, with Gummy in particular feeling restless and Wisdom swapping to Gummy for that restlessness in an effort to push a flashwagon.

In summary, Snowe was pushed D2 by primarily town and heavily townread players, so I don’t think the theory holds up.
I think D2 was wolves trying to save her slot but letting it go after it became clear that she was too widely suspected, likely exacerbated by her not defending herself outside of a slightly shifty answer on Proph’s question regarding Rue.

[Ash]

Honestly makes me suspect Catbae significantly more because he was the biggest force attempting to pull people off the Snowe wagon, especially in #3022, and all of Tutuu-Altina-Proph had legacies specifically noting his strong wolf equity with Snowe.