Odyssey to the Fortress of Lunacy - Day 4 (12/28)

MKP, and later T3, to some degree.

:sob:

T3 was because the Damsel thing-y, I was really advocating Ash over T3 at EoD, if you read my posts again.

And I still stand by on my MKP read, just because they blast off, it doesn’t mean they couldn’t be scum… (yes, they were around top wagon at the time, but I still don’t like their (possibly) joke posttheir reaction on my vote. Especially now, if they knew beforehand, that they will “explode” themselves.)

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VOTE: proph

god I played a real good wolf game in knights errant, sometimes I scare me

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Also my Ash push was cuz of mechanical reasons over scumreading Ash as well.

VOTE: proph

Yes, let me do that after I catch up.

I was out for the majority of the day, I see the votes on me, let me read up and review.

@catbae
part of me really hopes u are town, reading mountainado and seeing us bounce off each other felt great

I will ask though - what do you expect out of an updated read on snowe, given that she’s posted effectively zero content today besides what I’ve asked her this morning?

I’ll still try to appraise her D1 posts tonight, but I am fairly tired so I might not get to everything I wanted to this day phase.

I would assume that direct responses to questions you asked with the intent to read her would be fairly readable for you.

Gotcha.
I’d read his handling of Jarek as being rather tame for someone trying to push agenda, especially given how much harder you could push him. It felt like his line of questioning was underpinned by genuine curiosity rather than a bare minimum contradiction, and I thought the post was towny because Proph took a step back instead of pressing the attack.
Does that make sense?

I was hoping for answers on the other couple of questions - the stuff with her read on you specifically I’ll need to parse when reading through her day 1 posts. But point taken.


I think I alluded to this when I was phone-posting but I think Wazza is town.

I don’t think they spend several emotional driven posts (3329, 3312, 3307) talking about their read on Chomps and how they want him dead when their team likely poisoned Chomps SoD. Basically what I’m trying to say is, I think it’s more likely that they missed the SoD announcement that Chomps is poisoned as town rather than spend like multiple posts and chart out this game plan of getting mad at Chomps if they’re mafia.

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ya I understand ur mindset, its just hard to draw that line with Proph

this is my read on wazza pretty much word for word

@Altina

Why do you think it’s hard for wolf!me to write this post about you? Wazza asked me how good you were at solving and I tried my best to give my best recollection of your abilities. How is this post from me about you alignment indicative from me?

ohh is that the context? I thought it kinda just came out of nowhere, I guess with that in mind, its just u being honest then

Okay, caught up. I’m like omega tired so if this post reads awkwardly then that’s why.

I have had my vote parked on snowe because I believe that snowe and catbae are wolves. However, I have /not/ had time to ISO them, and I’d like to do so for at least snowe before I sleep tonight and maybe try to appraise catbae tomorrow. That has been my belief since the start of today.

I have given snowe multiple opportunities to defend herself and to produce content today; I went out of my way to ask her specific questions to help her get caught up and address concerns of mine. She answered one of those questions in a way that will make me need to evaluate her posts to see how she acted around Rue D1, and hasn’t answered the rest and hasn’t posted in the past 12 hours. I think this is possibly a wolf who has gotten tired of posting and wants out (see: me in MHA Mafia Day 4, where I basically just gave up on posting because I was tired of Keeping Up the Facade).

With catbae, I was relying on Wisp to read him for most of Day 1 as the past three or four games I have played with him, he was a townie eviscerating my wolfteam and I was a wolf. (Hydra game, FAM 2, MHA). This is the first game to my knowledge where I genuinely do not know his alignment. Due to me relying on Wisp (and Wisp saying that he was likely town on in D1) I was playing fairly hands off with him.

Come D2, I saw him admit “I have not been putting in a lot of effort into this game”, saw him push pandora, and then leave. This had me believe that he was playing similarly as I do as a wolf, which is going through the motions and putting in the minimum amount of effort to win.

Earlier on today, I looked over pandora’s meta and came to the conclusion that she was likely town, due to having more nuanced thoughts on the game state and being slightly more inquisitive this game than in her wolfgame. I became more comfortable with the idea that catbae was likely a wolf, as he is continuing to push people who I think are town.

Also, I have been out for the majority of today. This wagon on catbae started in the afternoon and I saw tutuu’s post about it and thought it could be potentially clearing for tutuu if catbae flipped wolf, which is why I pointed it out. So if you think “proph could be watching as people vote catbae” – yes, I think both Snowe and catbae are wolves and as a result had little objection to his wagon.

I believe that catbae, if town, would reach out to me more and engage with more of my posts, as he did many times when I was mafia and he was town in previous games. The most he’s said on me is:

I refuse to believe this is a townie progression from him.

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Let me look at snowe before I go to bed tonight, and I will try my best to appraise catbae’s posts tomorrow. I do believe both are wolves, but I will try my best to go into this with an open mind.

First off, let’s set the context. snowe has ostensibly randed a role where she gets more powerful the more she is suspected:

So the first 50! or so snowe posts are basically her just making funny posts and fluffposting:

She stops doing this when she posts the following and I vote her to give her the attention she desired.

From here, she starts playing conventionally for the second half of Day 1. Let me look at her posts from this stage.


First off, I don’t like how she had to bookend this with “idk how good jarek is at wolfing now”. She’s giving herself an out to reverse her read with later if needed.

Votes MKP with scant reasoning as to why they could be a wolf (they’re self conscious about votes on themself, but it’s not the /most/ AI thing in the world).

This is where snowe does try to interrogate Rue about how she’s been treating her and to her credit this is what she meant earlier today by stating trying to “get her to do things i would see as a towntell and she hasn’t”. I do think that this attempt to read Rue - by asking her pointed questions to give her the opportunity for her to townread her - is townie.

Moves the needle into fully townreading Jarek.

She explains more about why she votes MKP here.

Switches over to o.kazo once momentum starts building towards them (I think I voted them, then Altina, then her) once Rue posts her vote on O.kazo.

Okay, this attempt at analyzing snowe’s posts is garbage because I’m so tired/sleepy, but if there is any world where snowe is just super disengaged town struggling to kind of latch onto the game thread or play, then it’s possibly within these posts.

The summary of snowe’s posting is:

  • Fluffpost early D1 to garner wolfreads
  • Post more conventionally D2 once called out on fluffposting
  • Townreading Jarek for a couple of posts
  • Votes MKP for them being self conscious about being voted
  • Tries to get a handle on Rue
  • Realizes that reasons for voting MKP aren’t as strong, moves to O.kazo instead
  • Switches vote to T3M for self pres at EoD
  • Has done very little D2 besides confirm their existing stance on Rue.

It’s difficult to gauge if snowe is a wolf or a townie with low WIM/motivation as only the second half of D1 they played “conventionally”. Their posts once starting to play conventionally were solid but I don’t see anything from snowe I would consider to be a strong town tell outside of her treatment of Rue.

I will try to look at this once again tomorrow to see if I can nail down something but it’s the lack of content which is the problem here.

It’s just like - for catbae and snowe, I’m being forced to ask myself the question with both of them, “are these players townies with low WIM/motivation, or are they just a wolf?” and I feel like if I’m asking that question too many times, Occam’s razor sometimes just dictates that they are a wolf.

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I am believing I am correct about this