Stellaris: Apocalypse Mash - Day 4 (12/30)

it’s 5.6%

no its not nvm

Don’t worry about it.

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yeah ur right 1.4%

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I don’t fully dismiss the possibility of sabotage I’m just contractually obligated to variancepost every time someone questions the likelihood of an event

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1% is fucked I dont like it one bit

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I’m a mahjong player and I was a Blaseball fan. One thing about me is I love to say “variance”

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i missed 5 toxics in a row once in a competitive pokemon game (90% accuracy move)

0.001%

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yeah and thats not it

<5% odds = 0% odds

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rounding

but yea it really felt like sabotage

I know so many people who would have so much to say about this post

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i bet that the chance to be born in france as opposed to any other country is less than 5%. so france doesn’t exist. i actually agree here

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Occum’s razor woooo

it has nothing to do with gorta

hey may you should make a towny read rn

I’m vaguely uncomfortable with the conscensus on rose uniting without anyone casing them iirc

you put rose square in the middle of your readlist; were you convinced by something, or re-evaled, or ?

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keep in mind these statistics are unique from each other; we know both ash and clara’s rolecards, so the 7% was probably a 7%, and thats what they died to.

the 80% is pretty unlikely to not succeed but given that clara was town theres no reason any attacker would want to lower the chances.