The beatings will continue until townplay improves: Part 2 - The Chessening. Mafia wins!

Forum Games Completed
,
#1683

re the pandora vote

#1684

also if mistyx voted first i’d be kinda fucked so

#1685

yeah lol

anyways carb goated someone nom her for best scum game

3 Likes
#1686

i was in classssssss

1 Like
#1687

i wasn’t home either LOL :sob:

#1688

Exxcept I plan on being a player in the next one.

1 Like
#1689

…? Leafia, the Cressening is already open.

2 Likes
#1690

I don’t think so.

AFAIK, the Monty Hall problem works because of the fact that the door that is revealed must not be the door that you have chosen.

In the actual Monty Hall problem:

  • 2/3 chance of picking a door with a goat, then a door you didn’t pick is revealed as having a goat, so the remaining door has the car
  • 1/3 chance of picking the door with the car, then a door you didn’t pick is revealed as having a goat, so the remaining door also has a goat

But in this problem, (starting at the night of F4 for simplicity and taking nightkills to be random), we during the night of F4 pick a player we think is a wolf (akin to choosing a door), but that player could die. The probabilities are:

  • 1/3 chance you die at night.
  • 2/3 chance you don’t die at night. Given this:
    • 1/3 chance you picked the wolf during the night of F4
    • 1/3 chance you picked the townie who didn’t get nightkilled
    • 1/3 chance you picked the townie who did get nightkilled

When in pandora’s position in F3, you know you didn’t get nightkilled, and you know you didn’t pick the townie who got nightkilled, which leaves the chances at a 50/50, so there is no benefit (or downside) to swapping.

7 Likes
#1691

this isn’t to discredit pandora’s overall play to be clear, and she did also have valid reasons to suspect carbonated like this:

I just wouldn’t want to be arguing against this in a game I’m in so I want to clear it up now and also interesting math problem instant nerd snipe

4 Likes
#1692

Thanks for letting me know. Just joined it.

1 Like
#1693

Town lost again? Alright, looks like more beatings are in order.

4 Likes
#1694

While you’re at it, please get a new flavor for Part 4. Maybe crests or smth.

2 Likes
#1695

The Chest (storage device)ening

3 Likes
#1696

minecraft chests!

4 Likes
#1697

and then the mafia is just like a mimic and a chest (human body region)

2 Likes
#1698

maybe gimmighoul if you want a third member

2 Likes
#1699

Yup.

1 Like
#1700

Batman cracks his knuckles - Batman

wheres tutuu

6 Likes
#1701

we scared him away

5 Likes
#1702

for rhw rexord the monty hall logic cause me to reevaluate my read i did not use it as my logic. i did not use it as my logic.

3 Likes