The beatings will continue until townplay improves: Part 3 - THE CRESSENING, Day 2 (9/11)

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#642

Chomps is difficult to read, always, for me. He is representing higher motivation and higher assertiveness than part 1 of beatings. Thats sensible from a town rand since he had the most accurate reads there and I gave him feedback that he just needed more assertiveness. I forgot what happened in beatings part 2, if he even played there

Leafia had Chomps as top town iirc, theres no motive for him to N1 her. If hes mafia he ceded to his partner’s wish

Chomps has been defending bys so potentially they could be partners. It would be an absolutely iconic team because if thats the team they killed neither me nor Kyubey and they will be trying to chop Kyubey and Chomps will probably try to chop me later. Id respect that so much

Both Chomps and Bys coming in and immediately voting Kyubey at this SoD doesnt look very partnered to me though

Maybe wolf Chomps could be partnered with Wazza. I dont recall them interacting much

Im not at all interesting in pushing Chomps rn, I dont see the strategy if he’s wolf, i dont see the partner, and i dont see information gain from town Chomps flip

#643

If chomps and bystander are both town that points to Kyubey mafia. If Wazza is also town in this condition, triple town, Kyubey is certainly mafia

#644

If the day was to magically end in 5 minutes (for no reason) the optimal vote here is Wazza fwiw

#645

Jaiden and pandora were very happy and gleeful around each other yesterday. I get they’re friends, but i felt some posts were a bit theatrical, and there were some odd cross votes between them. It pinged me a bit as awkward scum distancing. If im wrong on the conclusion of my analysis before, Jaiden and pandora is a fitting team. Remember that wolves will be distancing, FoL wolves especially like to go extra hard on it

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#646

So:

Wazza, Bystander, Chomps, Kyubey are all tied in introcate web of connections

Jaiden and pandora have a simple rope connecting them

Rue is sitting there laying low, could always be a free wolf snipe

Soweli still blatant town. Im good at reading soweli ive caught her both as town and scum. I dont think ive been wrong on her ever

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#647

So I would recommend we focus on these names

Of course we shouldn’t ignore anyone, if you can spare the effort then go over everything

If you have limited anount of time and effort you can spare for the game, I think these are the key slots to solve. We dont need to, like, solve 2/2 immediately today. We just need to set up ourselves well

2 Likes
#648

I get off at 11

#649

I’ll note part of the reason I suspect chomps is I think this is all wrong @tutuu ans that if chomps is town bystander and wazza works. I didn’t put a lot of effort when considering where to go but I’ll do that when I get off work. It was literally just a 5 second snap read right before sod where I looked at their posts and go that seems like it could just all be wrong

#650

Yeah looking at the explanation to myself it was literally just he was pushing town

#651

What even is your argument here? That tutuu is wolf who killed someome? That isn’t an argument .

#652

Wazza and Bystander looks highly paired from Wazza messages alone. I don’t think Wazza actually has a world view in the 5 seconds I spent to read a couple of their posts combined with my memory of them. Their world view is just tutuu is wolf because they are pushing agenda and they did these things because they are a wolf which isn’t really an good argent

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#653

:-1:

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#654

I think the way they are playing having just read their posts line up with my idea of town rue. Admittibly I don’t have much experience with w!them

#655

I still don’t really think this is a hard game. The lines of thought tutuu are going through is just how they computed the game as town. They aren’t mafia. Soweii posts also line up with what I would expect of them as a person for them to play like as town. Bystander is good enough at the game that when juggling my reads without having looked through their posts again and just going with my bar method from what I remember of their posts I think they could be wolf. Wazza posts im reading right now don’t seem to be in good faith.

#656

So I guess what I’m saying is it’s probably true the question I asked myself “does who you kill d1 matter in influencing town win rate” is probably true. At least from what I’m thinking and reading. If it gets harder obviously just change opinions but like

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#657

But like I never finished this thought, saving Pandora and Jaiden was probably the right call (until they are both wolves). I’ll go through with reading their posts again and what 22 was talking about soon. I think they are more readable than zone

Summary

Not that anyone cares, but the reason I killed zone was their behavior at eod where they sit around and do practically nothing was what they did in ice cream mafia and talked about. I mean they weren’t even there for one of the EOD’s. But also I killed them because they are a harder read. It’s harder to be right on them than Pandora and jaiden with more info imo

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#658

I like how I’ve been playing practically my own game the entire game it’s great

#659

I don’t see why leafia’s death implicates wazza or bystander for the most part, the efficacy of leafia’s arguments feels limited to particular spaces & while leafia being the only one to townread those two lends more credibility (as killing leafia might allow either to cinch a towncore spot) it doesn’t really mean much especially when I think bpth are towny based on posting.

On that front I think bystander going after kyubey makes sense, that was my main thought after seeing the EoD CFD & more recently thought the chomps wolfread was bad (if it doesn’t extend past “chomps was wrong about wagon composition” which it didn’t seem to)

Also i want rue to post more but can’t do much on that front.

I should backread jaiden & tutuu especially because i was only half paying attention day 1 but i will be traveling & doing homework tomorrow so who knows when i will get to that.

1 Like
#660

@tutuu i read these as not aligned. I get your argument that it seems to just theatrical but I’ve been in situations like this where I’m genuinely excited to play with another player and I’ve been called out for being theatrical and w/w with them. A lot of times it’s just being excited to play and see each other, which can’t be shared in wolf chat cause they aren’t in wolf chat. I don’t think they are aligned.

#661

Like where is the plan with Jaiden trying to kill Pandora and Pandora trying to not let Jaiden get executed or die? I don’t really see a plan there.