The beatings will continue until townplay improves: Part 4 - The Crestening (Day Three - 7/11)

[jason.mrrown]

Doesn’t seem like anyone is in thread rn so my best course of action is to make a wall for each of the poe slots i suppose

[jason.mrrown]

Ok easy tasks first to build momentum

T3rminator

Summary

@T3RMINATOR

i remember playing with leafia before and i remember she was immediately obvious as wolf

and she isn’t in this game so sure i’ll tl her

Quotes from t3rminator’s last game with leafia where he was town and leafia was wolf:

Summary

@T3RMINATOR

pranay tell

meowted

@T3RMINATOR

so what

i’m not gonna unvote

you’re insanely uptight about being rvs lol-wagoned

@T3RMINATOR

the phrasing “i notice you haven’t unvoted” is wolfy imo

she seems concerned with the fact that i haven’t unvoted but isn’t explicitly taking a position on my alignment or trying to understand why i haven’t unvoted yet

@T3RMINATOR

i also find #72 and #73 from leafia to be wolfy

she’s acting indignant at the fact that i’m attacking her BUT is also subconsciously acknowledging she did something wrong when she noted the fact that i hadn’t unvoted her by saying “i think you’re scummy for not unvoting”

like, she’s simultaneously acting indignant that i scumread her AND is trying to disprove my concerns

This seems like a believable read to make, it’s also a read made off “feel,” which i think wolves have a harder time doing since they’re burdened with tmi

@T3RMINATOR

you’re overwording things and making unnecessarily long streams of consciousness

From t3rminator’s most recent town game (?):

Summary

@T3RMINATOR

i kinda think proph is >rand likely to be maf anyways. he feels kinda weird and overexplainy

@T3RMINATOR

the logic itself is sound but it looks like altina is trying to show everyone that she’s going through a long and complicated thought process, which comes from wolves more often than not imo

“Unnecessary explanations are performative and >rand wolf” is a read that t!t3rminator has previously believed in and it’s believable that t3rminator would make this read in this game as well

@T3RMINATOR

there are posts like this which i’m usually correct >rand in wolfreading for most players. i think that mafia are a fair bit empirically more likely than town to literally announce “i am creating sparks:” and then vote someone

Can’t find any past precedence for this, but it fits the idea that t3rminator thinks “performative = wolfy.”

In response to a wagon forming on him

@T3RMINATOR

honestly i have no idea myself

i think 4 people decided to vote me for entirely independent reasons

@T3RMINATOR

i’ll live with that

@T3RMINATOR

i don’t know. i guess i just didn’t make a good first impression. that’s what the last girl i asked out said to me

T3rminator here seems to be taking the pressure very lightly and isn’t really showing any anxiety or stress I think a wolf being the leading wagon 4 hrs before eod1 would have?

@T3RMINATOR

well admittedly i agree with this read but i also think the way it’s presented is TMIish

@T3RMINATOR

i don’t specifically townread the use of the word “genuinely” fwiw, that is why i thought tutuu had tmi

Believable

@T3RMINATOR

i do think pigeon saying that is towny though, for similar (but slightly distinct) reasons to what tutuu said

T3rminator never really fully explains this read ehhhh seems like partial sheeping maybe

@T3RMINATOR

bc i almost never have premeditated ideas in my head as a villager in the first ~24 hrs of a game in mountainous

Thinking about player archetypes, this seems believable enough

@Hippopablompoyeetus

No one cares about t3rm if theyre mafia its probably with a shitposter or frost

Losing a mafia partner d1 in this format seems like death setentence id just insta concede lol

@T3RMINATOR

for me personally: i think that this read is more likely to come from mafia than not, and shows that hippo is thinking about the game from a mafia pov - it’s a weak read, but i’d prefer to vote him over Frog all else being equal

To me, hippo’s post feels nai, so this post could be t3rminator shading hippo. At this point the wagons are tied with t3rminator frog and hippo all being at 2 votes. Pandora votes ~10ish posts later to make hippo briefly the leading wagon, but then most of the focus pivots to tutuu when leafia makes her post calling out tutuu for moving her down.

I don’t like the post, but I’m also struggling to figure out what the wolfplan is if t3rminator is indeed wolf, since he didn’t post at all for the rest of the day, so in the grand scheme of things if his post was made with the intent of shading hippo, it basically had no effect.

Tldr i think t3rminator is likely town, his opening two reads are reads that t!t3rminator has made in the past and many of his posts line up with what i think t3rminator’s player archetype to be. The only thing that gives me pause is one or two posts and his general lack of activity

[jason.mrrown]

I take that back that was not at all easy

[jason.mrrown]

@pandora

VOTE: hippo throwing gaming (for legal reasons this is a joke)

I did find this post while backreading. @pandora why did you think that other people might consider this vote to be gamethrowing and wanted to clarify that it was a joke?

[Leafia]

@AngryFrog
@pandora
@thepigeonnyc
@Hippopablompoyeetus
@jason.mrrown
@T3RMINATOR

This place is too quidt. Please get over here.

[jason.mrrown]

Pigeon

@thepigeonnyc

I’m not sure if anyone in this game is too familiar with my meta

Ok let’s explore some previous pigeon games then

T!pigeon:

Summary

@thepigeonnyc

I think bystander and Derps I’m not sure of alignment. They just kind of seem to be doing their own thing
Gocj I’m wolfleaning though, really aggressive on my wagon and calling me obvwolf for kind of strange reasons
I’m willing to trust the people’s read on Frost a little longer
Creature doesn’t seem that bad either, I’m not happy with the heavy pushes on him and think wolves might have started that wagon but shifted to me after realizing people didn’t favor that wagon
Gonna VOTE: Gocj for now as they seem to have been the main push on both wagons (plus making up the soft redcheck on Kanave but then backing down is a pretty easy way to get someone miskilled)

@thepigeonnyc

While a 5 person wagon can theoretically be all town as there are 6 townies, it seems incredibly unlikely
I feel like Jarek and Leafia could be Town who were pushed onto the wagon by wolves Gocj and Frost, or that they’re actually both wolves who hopped on a wagon started by Townies Derps and Frost
I am struggling to see V!Gocj more and more though. All this talk of a lost wolf… Gocj and Wazza are the ones pushing the idea that there even is an LW. Do they have TMI here?

@thepigeonnyc

Gocj calling me lost wolf sounds like they’re wolf who realizes they can’t call me a wolf because I’m not suspicious enough so instead decided to call me something as close to wolf while justifying me being towny

Tbf there were only 27 posts and most of them were dedicated to pigeon defending himself against mech sus but i thought these posts were p nice for the point i want to make

W!pigeon

Summary

@thepigeonnyc

I ISOed Derps and he seems too serious. Like he feels he needs to write valuable content to avoid being executed as Mafia. As Town in Singers he was much more laid back

@thepigeonnyc

I don’t like what’s happening this game. I feel like people are throwing a bunch of names around but not really acting on their reads

[Quotes of other people fron that game]

I’m thinking it’s not impossible one of these is a wolf trying to kindle a wagon while not appearing to start one

@thepigeonnyc

Guys it’s Ash!!11!!!
I’m willing to consider this a strange move as Mafia so I’ll stop suspecting Ash for now, but I don’t see a reason to clear Sultan

@thepigeonnyc

I actually think RNG voting is a little wolf-lean? Like trying to get a wagon against someone statistically Town

@thepigeonnyc

Why aren’t you voting May then
This slot is getting more suspicious by the minute

@thepigeonnyc

Just want to say the carbonated wagon came from nowhere. It pairs May and Sultan well too
Gonna go back to VOTE: May. Still haven’t seen anything towny here

@thepigeonnyc

Oh yes
People think my logic regarding Ash was unclear
So I keep being on the fence about him
I started with a wolfread on both Ash and Sultan for throwing shade without voting
Then I went back on Ash because the awkward joke didn’t seem wolfy
Then Hazard gave a compelling reason to vote him, and a compelling reason not to
Separately WHAT WAS THAT CARBONATED WAGON. I knew it was weird
How is May still alive
VOTE: May

@thepigeonnyc

Sultan and May are having textbook W/W interactions ngl

52 posts, pigeon was slightly townread for most of the game. A lot of the posts were dedicated towards sussing other slots.

The biggest difference that jumps out to me is that t!pigeon has much more depth to his thoughts and his reads than w!pigeon. He’s able to articulate his reasoning much better as town.

Quotes from this game

Summary

@thepigeonnyc

I genuinely think it’s not impossible for the mafia team to be Hippo and Frost lol
I feel like T3rminator is certainly on a team but I can’t decide which

@thepigeonnyc

I feel like this is alignment indicative in some way but I can’t figure out which alignment it is indicative of

@thepigeonnyc

Wolf T3 is pushing a mislynch on Zone but somewhat distancing in case it falls through
Town T3 is just stating his actual opinions on Zone’s alignment

@thepigeonnyc

This feels towny enough. Could be W/W with T3 but that’s a stretch

@thepigeonnyc

This actually kind of gives me the vibes that tutuu is trying to bus either soweli or Leafia. I do find it to be wolfy even without soweli or Leafia as wolves as tutuu might be thinking about whether their own death/death of their partners is bad. Also moving soweli from bottom to top of the read list is a move of all time, could be pressured as wolf to stop trying to push a seemingly towncore

@thepigeonnyc

This feels too defensive to be a wolf and more of a genuine frustration considering AngryFrog had no votes on them at this point.

@thepigeonnyc

The wagons were kind of balanced until Hippo made his vote (4 for tutuu, 3 for Frost, 2 for Frog and himself), which makes me concerned that one of the wagons, perhaps Frost, was his wolf partner. Or this was a wolf self-pres move

Tonally and from the depth of thought, i’d say this is much closer to t!pigeon than w!pigeon. Granted both sample games are from 1.5 years ago and it could be possible that pigeon has improved his wolfplay by a lot since then, but i think the townreads on pigeon are warranted.

[jason.mrrown]

Apologies i was in the middle of my pigeon meta dive

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

Hey all sorry i have an interview tomorrow 10am gmt so been quite busy today

Will be very active tomorrow to make up for it

[jason.mrrown]

Sorry making these walls took much more out of me than I was expecting, will take a break from thread for a bit and give time for people to read and respond.

I’ll be back later to either realtime or make more walls

[AngryFrog]

Heard that

[Crest]

Votecount as of post #808

Hippopablompoyeetus (1): Leafia
T3RMINATOR (1): pandora

Not Voting (5): AngryFrog, thepigeonnyc, Hippopablompoyeetus, jason.mrrown, T3RMINATOR

[thepigeonnyc]

How are we 24 hours into day 3 with this few posts or votes what are we doing

[jason.mrrown]

Hi pigeon! I’m heading home rn but i can talk for a bit

[thepigeonnyc]

Your meta dive is a way better analysis than I could do myself, I barely remember these games

[jason.mrrown]

Out of curiosity, do you play on any other sites? I do realize these games are from more than a year ago so i’d like to skim through something more recent to double check

[thepigeonnyc]

Nope, I just don’t play very much FM

[jason.mrrown]

What does your poe look like atm

[thepigeonnyc]

Hmmm in F7 a PoE should be 3 people… I’ve been suspicious of Hippo and pandora. Everyone agreed that pandora would come out with insane solves on day 3 but I haven’t been seeing that, and I was already suspicious of her from the start. Also looking at Hippo’s ISO, he seems to be one of pandora’s main D2 defenders, so they could be W/W. I think I’m actually less suspicious of him than I am of pandora though, he seems to be actually solving
T3 disappeared and now that I look back I think I wolfleaned him on D1 so sure he can be in my PoE

[thepigeonnyc]

@Crest

Frostwolf103 (3): AngryFrog, soweli, Leafia

On the other hand what are the odds all three of these are town hmmm

[jason.mrrown]

Cool!

What are your thoughts on angryfrog? I have mixed thoughts on his slot so I’m interested in what you think