The tip of the iceberg, there is more to it but I am not revealing it
nooo frost town
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I can handle Shending myself, I have a feeling he doesn’t know yet.
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Barwe-tajm
I have put us all in 3 different groups.
Group 1 is basically lock town:
- Barwe
- Ash
- Snow
I see no reason to not put Snow here. If I am to suspect them I might as well assume the whole cc thing was a genius 5d chess move planned from the start to make us into Ash’s sheep until we finally realise he’s still alive for some reason and it is all too late. …In other words, this group is not important. Id put u in my äggkorg.
Group 2, consisting of my old godklubb:
- Shending
- Meow
- Jason
- (Hippo)
In this group, Hippo is the odd one out. After keeping my eyes on these players throughout D2, my t-reads on the first 3 have gained strength while Hippo has fallen off. (Reasons for all this have been previously mentioned. Can do some towncasing if asked.) More importantly, it is unlikely for any of the first 3 to be mafia together with Hippo.
Group 3 consists of …the rest:
- Chomps
- Gummy
- (Frost)
There has been incredibly little of substance coming from Chomps and Gummy, i assume u guys have not paid much attention to the game? That makes Frost the odd one out. He’s been present, tho largely unreadable. I personally feel I’m vibing with him, and I’ve liked that I feel a sense of conviction in his posts, but it’s not enough to put him in godklubb. Right now he’s on a solo wagon against Gummy, and Chomps is on a solo wagon against him – thus I believe he cannot be aligned with any of them.
Regarding my general impression of Gummy and Chomps… Some confusionposting from Gummy felt pretty chill and genuine but it’s very lacking, she’s clearly the person I know the least about.
Chomps have pinged me in bad ways from the beginning, I’ve mentioned why before. Was gonna make a Chomps wolfcase today but……… his latest push on Frost contains some stuff I like. Mostly in 2414:
I mean I think the explanation is weak as heck, but flipping the chessboard around…
– I doubt I would commit to such a read as mafia without at least providing a made up example, since it’s such an easy thing to find if Frost is your victim. My question for those who know him: would Chomps?
…Anyway. The thing about group 3 is this… Gummy and Chomps are not aligned with Frost, but I’ll say they cannot be aligned with each other either. …This is probably a weak assumption. But it feels weeeeird that there wouldn’t be at least one moderately active player among the wolves. I mean u don’t need a lot of info to see that YBW and Dia were the best nk victims but both Gummy and Chomps were soooo distant at eod and seemed just as lost D2… Like Chomps said this in 1226:
Could be faking but hmmmmmmm……. I’ll stand by this assumption.
In that case I have 2 alternatives. Either there are 2 wolves among the first 3 in group 2 – Shending/meow/jason – which is something I’ll never believe and if its true they’ll bring me to endgame and torture me. Or, there is one wolf in group 2 and one in group 3. This is obviously what I’m betting on.
Now I’m wondering what’s the best course of action…… Hanging Hippo as he’s the most likely wolf in group 2, and risk having a bunch of unreadables in endgame? Or just start picking off group 3 members one by one, in case the group 2 wolf is part of my godklubb?? Thought I’d have a conclusion but ehmmm……
(@Shending my solving is way too reliant on the organization rule isn’t it?)
Fuck these r a lotta words for just saying “eh prob hippo+1lhf”
Maybe Chomps really is most likely to be key wolf after all. Or Frost. Or Hippo. Well….
NOW Frost just posted something cryptic that may turn my theory upside down whatteheeell does that mean
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Yeah i sometimes do as both alignments but i felt kinda bad about it afterwards so i wont do it again so sorry. Feel free to push me lol
Did you write this post in 6 minutes after your other post or was it preprepared?
finished it just now
“finish” is a strong word
stopped writing.
ah u mean that one obvs sat with the long one until i posted that one. Im not very quick.
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This is a helpful post to help me formulate stuff even though its conclusions are incorrect
I think theres a wolf on jason/meow 10000000% and idm if you hang me today but if you ignore my legacy i will be sad
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If its about the neighborhood, it wouldn’t be in grand scheme and as long the mafia don’t know the secret about that mechanic, they might fall into the trap soon enough.
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Who do u think is the partner in group 3 itc?
Heh.
That’s not necessarily how I’d describe it. I think trying to theory crafting teams / un-aligns etc makes sense, but i just feel the base you’re placing the whole theory on top of (that it has to be an inactive and an active wolf) is not very solid. If you can find stronger reasons why certain worlds makes no sense and find 1 person left over that has to be a wolf if your other assumptions are correct then it can make sense to just kill them
But if you don’t (which you dont seem to have if I’m honest) then just go back to basics and vote the wolfiest person (whether it’s a low poster or not). If you kill wolves lowposters will often turn from LHF to lock clears overnight (see Snow for example assuming they’re actually town which i think). While if you hang lowposting villas just to have an easier end game that can’t happen
Enough about theory… What’s your feelings on a potential Hippo/frost/willow solve? Last time i pushed frost (d1 i think?)Hippo did the exact same thing of going “nooo frost is town” and had exactly 0 reasons. Now the same afaict. Maybe a bold way of acting as w/w, but hippo seems like a bold guy tbh
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…can’t wait…(?)
Idk
I really think frost is town based off their reactions to things and gummys like 5 posts have been towny and i will be disappointed in them if theyre mafia just lowposting and riding by on social credit so i want to townread them.
Of the 3 chomps is most likely a hit and within scumrange but id still think theyre randtown with some of their posts about asking to die. Plus if chomps dies today and flips town we are in a really really bad position.
I still suspect snow could be a misclear but no one else does so idk
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I wouldn’t use term mindmeld, but the group sorting I like it as this align with where I am keeping track.
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