Or, at least to me, it seems like the more direct question that the mech poses.
Im ngl i like mech when it’s clear cut and hate it when it’s ambiguous
I think answering your question is much harder and relies on reading socials in the context of a mechanical result, which is smth not everyone is good at
I think asking people to give thoughts on general socials is a much easier ask
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I guess, but asking someone to read an ISO that’s twice as long as the next highest living person’s is…
I dunno, is ‘ineffective’ the right word?
I guess I have the benefit of having been thinking about this since SoD, so my take may be biased.
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I think the 65-70% figure I gave Gummy captures where I’m at.
Like, yes, there’s a way for meow to be town, but I think that way is unlikely enough given mafia’s established playstyle and given D2 that I would call this redcheck solid.
regardless of the mech probability, I think it’s good to make everyone in the game express an opinion on me & what they think we should do
I also think that the social questions at play are simpler than evaluating meow’s full ISO, but you already did the mass-ping, so what’s done is done.
I am the cop after all, mafia has to be a bit scared about what their positioning on this subject should be – do they sheep ash and push for me to die today? do they try to “look good” and shield me and advocate for the more optimal play of letting me self-resolve? etc.
even if I’m wolf, I think the questions are still relevant in terms of how my partner should be interacting with my slot anyway
Man, I dunno, it feels mildly disingenuous to not engage with the questions underpinning the mech when those are, like, the entire point of determining whether the redcheck is correct.
I don’t have enough energy to do a long iso
consider frieren when we wondered about the mech chances of tutuu being seriously rbed by snow vs kiiruma being rbed and rolecopped I guess.
mech probabilities seem like they’re independent or whatever, but I think they’re influenced by more gamestate things than we can actually factor into the probabilities
I feel like the argument of, “Who would mafia factional N2” is a simple one, no?
Like, that is the underlying question behind the mech, and I think it’s much easier to dissect and much more relevant to determining your alignment.
I am scared of being misled by mech and i have more confidence in social reads
also like. genuinely I feel like it’s a throw to vote out a claimed cop if your redcheck isn’t 100%, just let me self-resolve or at least hopefully get something confirmable if you really want to vote me out d4 etc.
what do you lose between voting me out d3 vs d4
okay well I’ve thought nks are obvious but players in past games I’ve specced haven’t thought so (and vice versa), so I don’t think this as useful as you might think
and it’s not like the game is expressing disbelief that you could have been the target
if you asked me point blank, yes I would shoot dia over you on n2, but clearly that didn’t happen
man I’m never winning the mech vs socials argument with jason after this game am I
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My point is that the shakiness around the mech in play is underpinned by social reads, and a communal social read at that. I don’t think this is a complicated question to ask people.
jason & ash: arguing about what questions to ask the rest of the game
the rest of the game: crickets
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I’m just gonna analyze who w!meow’s teammates could be and leave it at that.