town:
may
lemonfairy
potatocat
garfooled
bystander
hippo?
everyone else:
blackcat
retrograde
frostwolf
chomps
eaves
pandora
this is ordered via confidence btw
Summary
May - my read on them from day 1 still stands in the sense that he was prying into everything in a way that feels very much like tryhard town. i do expect may to tryhard as a wolf. but the flavor would be different… like longer posts, more elaborate thoughts on specific players rather than a more holistic look at every player
despite the drop-off today somewhat, i still believe he is solving the game in earnest and looking at the things i’d expect him to, the way he’s been handling pandora specifically feels identical to his town game. if anything as a wolf i would expect him to keep up the energy from day 1 here because the game is relatively free for him to run away with if he is wolfing. and while he has posted less, what he has done tells me there is an underlying process going on behind the scenes which he doesn’t really feel a need to share (like the votes without elaborating) but that underlying process is indicative he is a villager and doesn’t need to project it in the same way he would be doing as a wolf. so for that reason i implore you not to be alarmed by may being quiet unless town runs into shit on future days and he does nothing to stop it
lemonfairy - the way she handled suspicion on her on day 1 (from tutuu) is very much a town way of doing it, the way she has consistently gone back to read over anyone who’s name gets brought up and been willing to change her stances show that she’s willing to consider new information and isn’t playing with an agenda. i feel like she is also defending a lot of the LHF players right now, and even though if i am correct that the wolves are in there, there are villagers too and these will be the main way of saving the wolves that are actually wagoned and she is inadvertently locking herself out of those options so i feel like she would be making her life a lot harder as a wolf here
potatocat - apparently this is atlas, and i do not know how to read atlas via meta let alone when she is gimmicking. so all i have to do is read them for what her posts are and i think she is town. she doesn’t seem fazed by the pressure to her, i felt like she was treating chomps and other players who pushed her in good faith on day 1 when it’s very easy for a wolf to not do that given how chomps was playing, and her pushes don’t really feel like what a wolf would be going for here. i think she is pointing out things about slots that wolves would not be, like eaves being a potential ML bait if town, etc. i nearly recency biased myself out of this one but her push on frostwolf has re-solidified the townread her because the conviction with which she speaks about it makes me think she genuinely believes in it. i would re-consider in lylo or the day before maybe
garfooled - i think she has become very towny today, even though i don’t always understand what she is trying to get out of her questions i believe she genuinely cares about them and the way she was reluctant to townread players like me/may/lemon just makes me think she probably doesn’t have TMI on the game (assuming i am right about them being town, but even if they aren’t i find it unlikely she would be going against the grain on her townread partners like this, so it still applies). and her frustration with the gamestate and the way she was being spoken over rather than to, feel like more often town than not. tutuu knows her best and he thought she was town too. i would re-consider this around the same time as potatocat probably
bystander - uh. she has done basically nothing i townread today, which is why she’s nearly at the bottom of my towns. but i struggle to see her day 1 play being the angle she takes as a wolf - insisting that she sucks and doesn’t know how to play the game. like she is capable of making reads as a wolf, and being convincing about it at that. when you take the context of this game being massively unreadable due to how null everyone is generally, this is the more likely explanation for it and it’s one where she’s town and has to genuinely parse the game. i wish she would do more for everyone’s sake but i am making this to comment on alignment and i do think she is more often town than not. there was also a super towny segment on day 1 where i extended her an olive branch and she accused me of TMI’ing her as town
hippo - the weakest of my townreads. i don’t think he’s playing with an agenda with how all over the place his reads have been. i think his angle on pandora is towny regardless of what alignment pandora is, wolves wouldnt defend her in this position as a partner and if she is town they would not want to get people looking elsewhere. unless all his partners are townread and it doesn’t matter anyway, but i am not working from that assumption right now. i think as a wolf he generally tends to create less waves than how he’s been playing here and he wouldn’t really be getting himself into the line of fire. he’s had some pretty smooth posts about the nightkills and his own position in the game too which i would give him credit for even though i think he prooobably can fake them. i still probably wouldn’t vote him tomorrow but after that go with god i guess
i do not want to speak about my poe too much because i don’t really think any of them are overtly caseable, as weird as that sounds… i just don’t have reason to townread them over the above 6 players (and this is the amount of players i need for a poe) either due to lack of familiarity (blackcat) or due to them “just playing like themselves but they play like this as both alignments or can easily do so” (the other 5). i will say that i think chomps should probably be killed in the day before lylo if no wolves have flipped, if you haven’t already killed him before then. this is because, unless he gets his act together, he is playing the game through omgus and if he is a villager wolves can simply manipulate the votes around him in lylo to win there and then. frostwolf should have activated today, is what i am coming around to, and i don’t think what he has posted is that. i could easily see him being a wolf and unfortunately hsi activity is going to drop off so i do not know how likely it is he becomes more findable on future days if he is town. blackcat i spoke about, probably the most likely town here based on general movement in thread. retrograde is someone i really haven’t paid due diligence to today, but from what i remember of them i’m not sure i would have much to say anyway, i think the way they are playing unburdened by the thread consensus trends more often town than not but i wouldn’t put too much stock into this. eaves and pandora you already know my stances on, i don’t think either really have anything redeeming
for the record, if i die and lemon and may consistently do not die on the consecutive nights, please do not let them run away with the game because i am not 100% on either of them being town. if there is a wolf in the two i’d say that it’s May but i’d still be pretty surprised (best wolf player 2023 etc)
if you are in a position where wolves have not been flipped for consecutive days, it is imperative to play under the assumption that wolves have been wolfsiding and that town have been… wolfsiding less. otherwise the game is not really solvable. if this is a game where town has been suspecting each other and wolves have been bussing then the game becomes borderline unsolvable, but by making a (likely) assumption that villagers are not fully wolfsiding the game becomes infinitely more solvable. such that if someone in the top group ends up having voted out a villager every day, i would just kill them in lylo or the day before lylo regardless of what they say, because i do not think the players there are likely to do this as town. especially may, lemonfairy and potatocat. but i do expcect these three to be nightkills in some order
)