100% BOTF XXX: STEWARD STRIKES BACK PART 2 - EVIL WINS

[Hazardwaste]

why does it need to be whispered?

[Zugzwang]

it involves both Lotte’s and Silviu’s claims

[Hazardwaste]

i guess? if its info clearing silviu tho i would also wanna hear it so i can remove them from the 4 evil demon’s. check with mag tho first of course.

[Hazardwaste]

cause in the world its summoner and silviu has info clearing them.
then its physically just Lotte in my eyes.

[Hazardwaste]

either way. we know theres one dead between Quava/Kelsier
we have a second evil between Chomps/IceT (Most likely Chomps and Quava within their own reguards)
The Demons have to be Myself/Lotte/Silviu/Zug

So then its the mission of finding the final minion while also finding the demon candi they connect to. with this in mind we need to start outing info if it confirms someone outside of the already found minions

[Zugzwang]

@Hazardwaste

i guess? if its info clearing silviu tho i would also wanna hear it so i can remove them from the 4 evil demon’s. check with mag tho first of course.

I’m not opposed to the claims being outed but yeah I want to check with them first

[Magnus]

---

D1 Steward’s ledger

Nomenclature

	Sunrise (+0 Hours)
	Morning (+7 Hours)
	Midday (+13 Hours)
	Noon (+19 Hours)

---

Whisper Registry 🌺

	[1] Magnus	~ ~	Jarek (14mins)	Litten (12mins)	May (49mins)	Hazard (45mins)	Lotte (16mins)	Zug (53mins)
	[2] Jarek	~ ~	Magnus (14mins)	Zug (24mins)
	[3] Litten	~ ~	Magnus (12mins)	Hazard (14mins)
	[4] Hazard	~ ~	Chomp (4mins)	May (37mins)	Litten (14mins)	Magnus (45mins)
	[5] Carbon	~ ~
	[6] Guava	~ ~
	[7] Kelsier	~ ~
	[8] Kiiruma	~ ~
	[9] Icet	~ ~
	[10] Nuto	~ ~	Chomp (7mins)	Lotte (24mins)
	[11] Chomp	~ ~	Hazard (4mins)	Nuto (7mins)
	[12] Lotte	~ ~	Magnus (16mins)	Nuto (24mins)	Silviu (26mins)
	[13] Zug	~ ~	May (1hr, 30mins)	Magnus (53mins)	Jarek (24mins)
	[14] May	~ ~	Hazard (37mins)	Magnus (49mins)	Zug (1hr, 30mins)
	[15] Silviu	~ ~	Lotte (26mins)

Whisper Registry 🌻

	[1] Magnus	~ ~	Silviu (1hr, 32mins)	Kelsier (7mins)	Silviu (1hr, 50mins)
	[2] Jarek	~ ~	Litten (4mins)
	[3] Litten	~ ~	Jarek (4mins)	Silviu (20mins)	Zug (6mins)
	[4] Hazard	~ ~
	[5] Carbon	~ ~
	[6] Guava	~ ~	Silviu (11mins)
	[7] Kelsier	~ ~	Magnus (7mins)	Silviu (40mins)
	[8] Kiiruma	~ ~
	[9] Icet	~ ~
	[10] Nuto	~ ~
	[11] Chomp	~ ~
	[12] Lotte	~ ~
	[13] Zug	~ ~	Litten (6mins)
	[14] May	~ ~	Silviu (29mins)
	[15] Silviu	~ ~	Magnus (1hr, 32mins)	May (29mins)	Kelsier (40mins)	Guava (11mins)	Litten (20mins)	Magnus (1hr, 50mins)

Whisper Registry 🎩

	[1] Magnus	~ ~	Zug (8mins)	Carbon (13mins)	Icet (23mins)
	[2] Jarek	~ ~
	[3] Litten	~ ~	May (40mins)
	[4] Hazard	~ ~	Zug (7mins)
	[5] Carbon	~ ~	Magnus (13mins)	Silviu (40mins)	Lotte (18mins)	Zug (22mins)
	[6] Guava	~ ~	Zug (2hrs, 12mins)
	[7] Kelsier	~ ~	Nuto (24mins)
	[8] Kiiruma	~ ~	Silviu (28mins)	May (26mins)
	[9] Icet	~ ~	Magnus (23mins)
	[10] Nuto	~ ~	Silviu (26mins)	Kelsier (24mins)
	[11] Chomp	~ ~	Silviu (44mins)
	[12] Lotte	~ ~	Carbon (18mins)
	[13] Zug	~ ~	Magnus (8mins)	Silviu (39mins)	Hazard (7mins)	Carbon (22mins)	Silviu (12mins)	Guava (2hrs, 12mins)
	[14] May	~ ~	Silviu (14mins)	Kiiruma (26mins)	Litten (40mins)
	[15] Silviu	~ ~	Zug (39mins)	Kiiruma (28mins)	Carbon (40mins)	Nuto (26mins)	Chomp (44mins)	Zug (12mins)	May (14mins)

Whisper Registry 🏷️

	[1] Magnus	~ ~	May (22mins)	Jarek (9mins)	Litten, May (1hr, 20mins)
	[2] Jarek	~ ~	Silviu (20mins)	Magnus (9mins)
	[3] Litten	~ ~	Kiiruma (45mins)	Magnus, May (1hr, 20mins)
	[4] Hazard	~ ~
	[5] Carbon	~ ~
	[6] Guava	~ ~
	[7] Kelsier	~ ~	Zug (17mins)
	[8] Kiiruma	~ ~	Litten (45mins)
	[9] Icet	~ ~
	[10] Nuto	~ ~
	[11] Chomp	~ ~
	[12] Lotte	~ ~	May (50mins)
	[13] Zug	~ ~	Kelsier (17mins)	May (36mins)
	[14] May	~ ~	Zug (36mins)	Lotte (50mins)	Magnus (22mins)	Magnus, Litten (1hr, 20mins)
	[15] Silviu	~ ~	Jarek (20mins)

---

D2 Steward’s ledger

Nomenclature

	Sunrise (+0 Hours)
	Morning (+7 Hours)
	Midday (+13 Hours)
	Noon (+19 Hours)

---

Whisper Registry 🌺

	[1] Magnus	~ ~	Lotte (33mins)	Litten (2hr, 23mins)	Hazard (17mins)	Litten (10mins)	Silviu (42mins)
	[2] Jarek	~ ~	Litten (5mins)	Nuto, Lotte (20mins)
	[3] Litten	~ ~	Zug (18mins)	Chomp (11mins)	Icet (8mins)	Jarek (5mins)	Magnus (2hr, 23mins)	Magnus (10mins)
	[4] Hazard	~ ~	Icet (39mins)	Magnus (17mins)
	[5] Carbon	~ ~
	[6] Guava	~ ~
	[7] Kelsier	~ ~
	[8] Kiiruma	~ ~	Lotte (46mins)
	[9] Icet	~ ~	Hazard (39mins)	Litten (8mins)
	[10] Nuto	~ ~	Jarek, Lotte (20mins)
	[11] Chomp	~ ~	Litten (11mins)
	[12] Lotte	~ ~	Magnus (33mins)	Jarek, Nuto (20mins)	Kiiruma (46mins)	Silviu (14mins)
	[13] Zug	~ ~	Litten (18mins)
	[14] May	~ ~
	[15] Silviu	~ ~	Lotte (14mins)	Magnus (42mins)

Whisper Registry 🌻

	[1] Magnus	~ ~	May (1hr, 4mins)
	[2] Jarek	~ ~
	[3] Litten	~ ~
	[4] Hazard	~ ~
	[5] Carbon	~ ~
	[6] Guava	~ ~
	[7] Kelsier	~ ~
	[8] Kiiruma	~ ~
	[9] Icet	~ ~
	[10] Nuto	~ ~
	[11] Chomp	~ ~
	[12] Lotte	~ ~
	[13] Zug	~ ~
	[14] May	~ ~	Magnus (1hr, 4mins)
	[15] Silviu	~ ~

Whisper Registry 🎩

	[1] Magnus	~ ~	Carbon (2hrs, 26mins)
	[2] Jarek	~ ~
	[3] Litten	~ ~
	[4] Hazard	~ ~
	[5] Carbon	~ ~	Magnus (2hrs, 26mins)	Kelsier (3hrs, 14mins)
	[6] Guava	~ ~
	[7] Kelsier	~ ~	Carbon (3hrs, 14mins)
	[8] Kiiruma	~ ~
	[9] Icet	~ ~
	[10] Nuto	~ ~
	[11] Chomp	~ ~
	[12] Lotte	~ ~
	[13] Zug	~ ~
	[14] May	~ ~
	[15] Silviu	~ ~

Whisper Registry 🏷️

	[1] Magnus	~ ~	Litten (43mins)	Lotte (27mins)	May, Lotte (41mins)	Litten (38mins)
	[2] Jarek	~ ~
	[3] Litten	~ ~	Lotte (32mins)	Magnus (43mins)	May (12mins)	Zug (30mins)	Hazard (2mins)	Lotte (3mins)	Magnus (38mins)
	[4] Hazard	~ ~	Litten (2mins)	Zug (3mins)
	[5] Carbon	~ ~	Zug (33mins)	Lotte (58mins)
	[6] Guava	~ ~
	[7] Kelsier	~ ~	May (20mins)
	[8] Kiiruma	~ ~
	[9] Icet	~ ~
	[10] Nuto	~ ~
	[11] Chomp	~ ~
	[12] Lotte	~ ~	Litten (32mins)	Carbon (58mins)	Magnus (27mins)	Magnus, May (41mins)	Litten (3mins)
	[13] Zug	~ ~	Silviu (52mins)	Carbon (33mins)	Litten (30mins)	Hazard (3mins)
	[14] May	~ ~	Kelsier (20mins)	Litten (12mins)	Magnus, Lotte (41mins)
	[15] Silviu	~ ~	Zug (52mins)

---

D3 Steward’s ledger

Nomenclature

	Sunrise (+0 Hours)
	Morning (+7 Hours)
	Midday (+13 Hours)
	Noon (+19 Hours)

---

Whisper Registry 🌺

	[1] Magnus	~ ~	Lotte (26mins)	Zug (2hrs, 35mins)	Silviu (1hr, 9mins)
	[2] Jarek	~ ~
	[3] Litten	~ ~	Hazard (5mins)
	[4] Hazard	~ ~	Zug (15mins)	Kiiruma (25mins)	Litten (5mins)	Lotte (23mins)
	[5] Carbon	~ ~
	[6] Guava	~ ~
	[7] Kelsier	~ ~	Lotte (2hrs, 26mins)
	[8] Kiiruma	~ ~	Chomps (7mins)	Hazard (25mins)
	[9] Icet	~ ~
	[10] Nuto	~ ~	Lotte (12mins)
	[11] Chomp	~ ~	Kiiruma (7mins)
	[12] Lotte	~ ~	Magnus (26mins)	Nuto (12mins)	Hazard (23mins)	Kelsier (2hrs, 26mins)
	[13] Zug	~ ~	Hazard (15mins)	Magnus (2hrs, 35mins)
	[14] May	~ ~
	[15] Silviu	~ ~	Magnus (1hr, 9mins)

Whisper Registry 🌻

	[1] Magnus	~ ~
	[2] Jarek	~ ~	Hazard (12mins)
	[3] Litten	~ ~
	[4] Hazard	~ ~	Jarek (12mins)
	[5] Carbon	~ ~
	[6] Guava	~ ~
	[7] Kelsier	~ ~
	[8] Kiiruma	~ ~
	[9] Icet	~ ~
	[10] Nuto	~ ~
	[11] Chomp	~ ~
	[12] Lotte	~ ~
	[13] Zug	~ ~
	[14] May	~ ~
	[15] Silviu	~ ~

Whisper Registry 🎩

	[1] Magnus	~ ~	Nuto (7hrs)
	[2] Jarek	~ ~
	[3] Litten	~ ~
	[4] Hazard	~ ~
	[5] Carbon	~ ~	Kelsier (4hrs)
	[6] Guava	~ ~
	[7] Kelsier	~ ~	Carbon (4hrs)
	[8] Kiiruma	~ ~
	[9] Icet	~ ~
	[10] Nuto	~ ~	Magnus (7hrs)
	[11] Chomp	~ ~
	[12] Lotte	~ ~
	[13] Zug	~ ~
	[14] May	~ ~
	[15] Silviu	~ ~

Whisper Registry 🏷️

	[1] Magnus	~ ~	Litten (1hr, 7mins)	Zug (54mins)	Litten (10mins)
	[2] Jarek	~ ~
	[3] Litten	~ ~	Magnus (1hr, 7mins)	Hazard (9mins)	Magnus (10mins)
	[4] Hazard	~ ~	Litten (9mins)
	[5] Carbon	~ ~	Icet (1hr, 52mins)	May (50mins)
	[6] Guava	~ ~
	[7] Kelsier	~ ~
	[8] Kiiruma	~ ~
	[9] Icet	~ ~	Carbon (1hr, 52mins)
	[10] Nuto	~ ~
	[11] Chomp	~ ~
	[12] Lotte	~ ~	May (33mins)
	[13] Zug	~ ~	Magnus (54mins)
	[14] May	~ ~	Lotte (33mins)	Carbon (50mins)
	[15] Silviu	~ ~

---

[Magnus]

Presumptions

• My case relies on the virtue that both Guava and Chomps are outed evil, and that neither of them were provided with a list of reliable bluffs during the early stages of this game. Guava is captured within a Gossip and Town Crier ping whilst Chomps doubleclaimed two in-play roles consecutively, which is the foundational basis to maintain this position.

• I would like to also presume that if evils managed to hold a private discussion, they would have passed along successfully bluffs without obfuscating information. This might be high regards, but I’d like to grant my enemies the greatest benefit of doubt.

With these narrow constraints, I can logistically narrow the remaining evil pair down to Kiiruma and Hazard using empirical evidence entirely derived from publicly available information, without relying on miscellaneous arbitrary redchecks or even the basis of scumreads. I was greenchecked by Carbonated and subsequently defeated in the night, so the statistically odds of this evaluation being an agenda-misconstrued push are zero to none. I anticipate an uproar likely arising as a result from the two specific players, but even considering their information in good faith only leads to in loose threads.

---

Variable 1a: Fortune Telling

• Hazard’s information indicts the current acting Demon as acting within a sphere of Zugzwang, Silviu, Lotte; with Kiiruma himself tacked along as a potential suspect. More importantly, Hazard fundamentally clears Jarek, Nuto and Chomps from the sphere of likely Demonhood. It is impossible for the Red Herring token to move unless it was originally residing on Zug’s slot, and then moved over to either Silviu or Lotte’s token; in which case one of the four is nevertheless an acting Demon. Hazard was prepared to shell out behaviour lining up specifically with the nature of his character from the onset of the first whisper, which heavily points away from the presumption of Hazard either being the Summoner or starting Demon; however, we can properly demonstrate this fact without heretical guesswork by pointing to the nature of D1 whispers.
• Chomps was contacted by the likes of Hazard and Silviu in early active discussion, whilst simultaneously neighbouring Lotte and Nuto. It sounds critically implausible to imagine Chomps would have been directly contacted by the acting wielder of bluffs without accepting any in turn, particularly when Chomps has demonstrated an inclination already to lie and hide behind facades in this game. Furthermore, Guava and Zug were in active discussion for a timespan of two hours; yet the former persisted in a wilful doubleclaim with Kelsier, which are impulses you wouldn’t typically expect from any of these players. Therefore, it seems more than reasonable to imagine none of Hazard’s pings could realistically be the starting Demon and/or Summoner.

Summoner	Demon
Jarek	Jarek
Hazard	Hazard
Kiiruma	Kiiruma
Nuto	Nuto
Chomp	Chomp
Lotte	Lotte
Zug	Zug
Silviu	Silviu

• Regarding Jarek’s slot, you might be readily mistaken into assuming he would be a likely evil candidate given his unprompted Damsel provocation and the nature of his instant, unchallenged hardclaim. However, Jarek can be removed from the suspect list as a Godfather candidate due to Icet’s Tinker death yesterday seemingly fail to result in a spare evil-led kill last night, meaning Jarek cannot be taking advantage of a Godfather [-1] setup; and the current number of Outsiders validates his existence. In order for Jarek to be evil, this would also subsequently require May to be evil; which can be scratched from the record as that would specifically require Chomps to be the Demon (which fails to account for their poor double bluffs.
• In conclusion, Kiiruma is mechanically locked as either the Summoner or the starting Demon in every world; however, Hazard’s starting information clears his slot from the latter excepts in specific worlds where Minion!Hazard seized the unlucky prospect to latch onto the perfect claim immediately. Therefore, we can assume Kiiruma is locked as the Summoner, and at worst Hazard can only be attempting to save himself rather than falsely clearing another Demon; and if town, his pings are in complete goodwill.
• As for why Kiiruma wouldn’t have merely whispered his teammates early on to prevent such altercations from arising, the simple truth of the matter is that their schedules failed to align; usually existing with a two-hour buffer between their relative timezones, or else being dragged into separate concurrent whispers instead of managing to coordinate. However, Chomps did make an attempt to reach out, as documented below here; but as Kiiruma failed to respond, it seems frankly apparent that two of his three bluffs must have gone unfulfilled.

Contextual evidence establishing W/W pairing between Chomps and Kiiruma

@Chomps

Kiiruma wanna whisper?

@Chomps

:(

@Chomps

gotta go now

@Kiiruma

Ah my apologies for not being around.
I’ll be whispering with anybody who can catch me lol

---

Variable 2a: Exorcising

• Now that Kiiruma has been asserted as a member of the evil team, worlds in which Lotte is the Demon are specifically limited to the scope in which Kiiruma is also evil; whilst the remaining Fortune Telling pings’ virtues remain the same, merely in the scope of a summoned player. This still does not objectively clear Zug, not even in the realm of him being the original Red Herring; however, it does verify that no players other than these four could possibly be the Demon. However, due to the nature of Hazard’s Fortune Teller information, this is broadly improbable. The Storyteller’s penchant to inflict wrongful information rears its ugly head; this is something I will have to keep a lid on, unfortunately, but my specific point is that Hazard would have been in the market to learn a wrongful “no” last night in specific cases where Lotte was the Demon. This is further supported by the common sense that a Minion wouldn’t direct a hard push against their own Demon, which leaves me vaguely confident to assert Lotte as borderline locktown even disregarding the outdated Steward greencheck.
• Similarly for what is effectively just the same reason, Silviu is just… functionally town unless the evil team, up to and including the Demon, has played in an unorthodox and idiosyncratic fashion rather than furthering their own objective to win the game?
• This is the greatest I can do, providing exactly one remaining thunderdome and enemy to be defeated in either direction. I can’t particularly gesture towards any definitive evidence weighing one evil candidate over another. Except for one singular ace up my sleeve. Following the thread of presumption that Kiiruma is the Minion, we can trace his remaining D3 whispers to follow any alive players he might have wished to signal. Kiiruma did not communicate with either Zugzwang or Silviu post D3, but did immediately drag Hazard into conversation prior to flagging Chomps, as if to pose a signal indicating who the new Demon is. The simple truth of the matter is that any Demon aside from Hazard would’ve been given no possible indication as to the remaining scumteam.

Summoner	Demon
Jarek	Jarek
Hazard	Hazard
Kiiruma
Nuto	Nuto
Chomp	Chomp
Lotte	Lotte
Zug	Zug
Silviu	Silviu

[Magnus]

TL;DR not even close.

[Silviu200530]

/Break

[Kiiruma]

That’s quite an interesting take on things.
It’s very much wrong.
But yeah it’s an interesting take.

I am just good.

[Kiiruma]

We just kill into Hazard’s pings and win.
Preferably killing Lotte and/or Silviu today.

[Magnus]

I appreciate the verbose response.

One remarkable observation is that you want to look paired with Hazard, and I can’t rhyme reason head nor tails as to what a potential motive could be in that regard. But nonetheless, you are very much evil.

[Kiiruma]

I’m not, but I can see where your presumptions have led you there. I can’t act like it’s an unfair take either. Personally all I know is demon hunting is going to be quite important and I suppose I might need to play my part there when it comes to preventing a demon tonight.

[Kiiruma]

Unless I’ve already done so in which case I won’t necessarily be able to prevent a death tonight.
I’m not sure about the extent of our protectiveness as a town

[Magnus]

Do you disagree with either of the opening stances that evils could receive bluffs and just ignore them, or…?

[Hazardwaste]

Wait…. No this is wrong.
In a summoner game as your painting Zug cant be demon with the pings i presented

[Hazardwaste]

I have two sets of pings. In turn i had to have gotten the demon and red herring

[Kiiruma]

Exactly lol.
It doesn’t make sense to me.
Magnus’ claims just aren’t lining up

[Magnus]

@Hazardwaste

In a summoner game as your painting Zug cant be demon with the pings i presented

Zug as Red Herring, Zug is summoned, Red Herring moves. Donezo.
This is an objectively viable interaction, albeit not the most intuitive. This is what would have occurred from your perspective.