April Showers Forlorn - Day 1 (10/10)

[carbonated]

@meow

also it just hit me that carbon is in a neighborhood again

the first thing i said was “please not meow”

[meow]

@soweli

to elaborate: the apathy in just taking beancat at face value is alarming but also if we’re assuming mafia in hood, the other one would have TMI & this seems like a decently likely fit for ‘somebody who knew there was a neighborhood’

slight defense of gummy here that she’s sick and not feeling well, so I wouldn’t be surprised at some apathy from her. not saying she doesn’t fit a potential partner, but yeah. I think the taking beancat at face value is probably weirder than the apathy anyway, but gummy was only on for a short bit

@soweli

the encouraging other people to claim being -EV

I totally glossed over this in my mind (whenever someone makes weird requests like this, I just default to treating it as “ehh they probably have a reason I’ll follow up on it later” and sometimes remember). I am curious if a reason was present for the request now

think claiming -EV is double-edged sword, similar to your reasoning. gives you an excuse if you’re caught doing something sus, but also makes you a more palatable vote target for others. I guess I’m generally more used to town doing this than mafia. I’m not familiar enough w/ beancat to have a real opinion on whether she would or not as mafia. dia and gummy would, maybe carbon

[iamagummybear]

i thought dia had said something and i had missed it

[soweli]

did it not strike you as odd that beancat was suggesting wagons for the day this early on?

[iamagummybear]

it did

i made a mental note of it and moved on

i don’t think someone saying what the wagns shuld be 5 minutes int day will have an effect on the wagons

[soweli]

i see, thank you.

[meow]

@soweli

i’m a little bit suspicious of leafia but also that’s like worse than throwing darts on the wall given my early-reading-her accuracy

how are you at reading her later on in the game?

@meow

(whenever someone makes weird requests like this, I just default to treating it as “ehh they probably have a reason I’ll follow up on it later” and sometimes remember)

^chomps asking if people were neutrals also gave me this vibe

[soweli]

@meow

how are you at reading her later on in the game?

Not too great, as things are headed I might try to look at meta to confirm things but at least I have more solid evidence than just like tone & post volume

[meow]

okay so, unless something else happens, we are looking at dia/beancat/carbonated wagons?

what are the paths going forward from there – does one flipping wolf clear the other two? if we get a town flip, what happens with the other two (determine d2?). does a neutral flip mean the other two are probably town or non-mafia? (imagining a town-mafia-neutral neighborhood now)

I know I’m asking a lot of questions and have not really provided any of my own stances/feelings on them. I sheep a lot, unfortunately

feeling a weird wifom of like zone surely knows that putting a 3 player neighborhood into a 10 player game will lead to a level of assuming impure neighborhood, so what is the intended solve/purpose/place for it in the setup…like in the previous game, the neighborhoods+lost wolf seemed to function as a way to entirely circumvent chomps’s chat-cop thing but that wasn’t obvious at all during the game. so I feel like there’s some deeper layer I’m just missing, but yeah I don’t know

[soweli]

@meow

unless something else happens

kinda big caveat & I’m 100% dipping if there’s a better option, not entirely sold it’s impure either (& still interested in solving outside of there) but yeah. generally i’d take a maf flip as a good look for anybody else, neutral doesn’t really mean much

@meow

have not really provided any of my own stances/feelings on them. I sheep a lot, unfortunately

do you know how you are best read given this (if not this question goes out to qbcorders)

[diafiasco]

for like 75% of night 0 it was just me and carbonated in there and i was about ready to put my faith in and start the game assuming it was town/town

beancat only joined last night which threw off my reads bc i thought it was a hood of 2

[diafiasco]

@meow

(imagining a town-mafia-neutral neighborhood now)

i also lowkey had this thought on my drive home but that feels kinda unlikely cause i figure this game is balanced around town most likely shooting into the hood first

[meow]

@soweli

do you know how you are best read given this (if not this question goes out to qbcorders)

I don’t really have an answer, so yeah, qbcorders.

gummy and I were both town in the last two games and found each other, so maybe that is an avenue, but I like townreading everyone/haven’t really played wolf gummy. usually in qbcord there is mech of some sort that helps w/ reading me. I’m told I’m not very polarized – we’ll see if that holds true in fol I guess

[meow]

@diafiasco

that feels kinda unlikely cause i figure this game is balanced around town most likely shooting into the hood first

so neutral wouldn’t make sense since they’d be in the line of fire very early?

[diafiasco]

i wouldn’t know if i’m polarized bc i have been town in every game i have ever played and this is no exception

[soweli]

hmm. where are you at regarding carbonated right now given the neighborhood & your past history with her?

[meow]

I think you are, but I don’t know if it would be different here. but I’m only good at realizing you’re evil when it’s too late, so sigh

[diafiasco]

i don’t like looking at people’s past games too much bc for most people i find “tells” to be overstated. context matters!!!

that being said…slight wolflean right now but im non committal because some people haven’t even messaged yet lol

her reaction to her role being publicized feels kind of off to me? like it seems overblown for what to me feels like not a big deal bc it would be revealed anyways in the final count. plus: how that ability is phrased in the gm message suggests it could continue to multiply on future days? idk nothing there suggests this was a one time ability that got used today

[diafiasco]

last game i was wolfreading beancat for making bad posts that gestured towards mech and generally not reading anything at all and she was town so i think she’s just like that always

neutral for now

[meow]

@diafiasco

plus: how that ability is phrased in the gm message suggests it could continue to multiply on future days? idk nothing there suggests this was a one time ability that got used today

reread and good point

if it multiplies, that’s kinda broken though. but I agree the phrasing sounds like her vote weight will change throughout the game (maybe not multiplies, I could see a double vote “balanced” by her vote being 0 on future day?)