April Showers Forlorn - Day 2 (8/10)

like i think you’re really trying to make me out to the bad guy which im simply not

i was hard townreading kii by the end of it and the reason you started thinking i was mafia bc i was either “seeing something you weren’t” or were “wolf”

i defended myself against the wolf accusations with the biggest reason i could think of for why you would think i was wolf

and yet now you’re tunneling me again

the high-effort wolf plan explanation is you look at thread and determine that the course of town either on their own or with the help of your wolfpartner/you backing down/re-evaling is going to be enough to get kiiruma over sooner or later

but the same sort of lines can come in for a less-planning version

sorry what does this mean

i am just going to operate as if you did in fact make the neighborhood

does this change my thoughts on you (neutral slightly derogatory)

nope

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i will say the paranoia over the anticlaim feels towny-ish and from neighbor chat (bean chat as we will now call it) it doesn’t feel like acting

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I’m not tunneling you! I’m just saying I don’t find it to be a particularly solid defense and it’s odd that you used it given that. I should have anticipated that this logic structure doesn’t come easy to people but it still holds like.

It is your job as mafia to try and predict things like this!

I wasn’t even necessarily thinking you were mafia EoD1 it’s just that from where I stood kiiruma did not seem towny, particularly in the ways you were describing to me, so I was interested in discussing how your perspective on the posts came about yet the opportunity never arose. The structure of the post you’re referencing is largely irrelevant

yeah i find people towny for reasons im unable to articulate a lot of the time

why do you think meow said she would sheep me d1

well i was trying to fight the biggest reason why you would think i was mafia, so of course i said that as a defense. perhaps it’s not “solid”; i understand there are other less big reasons you might think i was mafia but i don’t think it’s stupid to defend myself against the biggest one

jesus. get over yourself lol; what an insane comment to make.

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“the high-effort wolf plan explanation is” - People tend to analyze wolfchats as if they’re always some big mastermind-y plan where the mafia are cooking up a detailed analysis of how every player is interacting and whatever, and it’s rather useful for explaining the sorts of thought processes that lead to action even if not accurate of how the wolfchat would be operating.

“you look at thread and determine that the course of town” - better interpereted as you look at the stances of everybody as well as their various threadpulls and such to try and predict where wagons will go

“either on their own or with the help of yoru wolfpartner/you backing down/re-evaling” here I present three slightly different scenarios for how you could anticipate the wagons to go

  1. You keep pushing at the same intensity and your wolfpartner is like gone, and yet kiiruma still goes over
  2. You keep pushing at the same intensity but your wolfpartner votes/shades kiiruma in order to get him over
  3. You plan to keep defending kiiruma into the future but less strongly, allowing the hang to go through while you can still claim credit off of the townflip
  4. Presumably after carbon goes over, you go “my bad guys i was wrong” and join the kiiruma pushers and then he dies

3/4 are more speculative, but entirely possible worlds for you if you are a wolf that we just cannot see if they would’ve happened because kiiruma died d1, but it could have been the case that his death was overdetermined by the wolfteam.

look you’re welcome to think what you think

i just found kii as town and defended them as such

… i suppose this is not going anywhere then?

i don’t know what you want me to say

you’re welcome to your analysis but what am i supposed to do about it lol

like genuinely do you want me to say something idk

I mean what I was looking for was how you voting carbon over kii is in fact towny?

I thought kiiruma was town for the same reasons gummy saw, more or less. I wouldn’t say the kiiruma defense is particularly odd coming from gummy. she could probably fake it but like it wasn’t really that necessary unless she was specifically trying to pocket me or something

gummy would not be able to turn on kiiruma without it coming off as incredibly sus I think

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i mean

i don’t know if it is towny

i just was happy i was correct about kii

or well, my second thought after reading kiiruma’s initial death acceptance post was that I wanted to ping gummy and get her read on its sincerity bc I thought it felt legit

mmm. ok then.

didn’t i say that was towny then and there lol

well I hadn’t gotten to your posts yet

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dia/gummy is possible, would be actively designed to mess with me. I’ll trust you guys to find that world bc I will never end up there

i think w!gummy pushes kiiruma here since it’s a safer vote that doesn’t rely on carbon

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