“the high-effort wolf plan explanation is” - People tend to analyze wolfchats as if they’re always some big mastermind-y plan where the mafia are cooking up a detailed analysis of how every player is interacting and whatever, and it’s rather useful for explaining the sorts of thought processes that lead to action even if not accurate of how the wolfchat would be operating.
“you look at thread and determine that the course of town” - better interpereted as you look at the stances of everybody as well as their various threadpulls and such to try and predict where wagons will go
“either on their own or with the help of yoru wolfpartner/you backing down/re-evaling” here I present three slightly different scenarios for how you could anticipate the wagons to go
- You keep pushing at the same intensity and your wolfpartner is like gone, and yet kiiruma still goes over
- You keep pushing at the same intensity but your wolfpartner votes/shades kiiruma in order to get him over
- You plan to keep defending kiiruma into the future but less strongly, allowing the hang to go through while you can still claim credit off of the townflip
- Presumably after carbon goes over, you go “my bad guys i was wrong” and join the kiiruma pushers and then he dies
3/4 are more speculative, but entirely possible worlds for you if you are a wolf that we just cannot see if they would’ve happened because kiiruma died d1, but it could have been the case that his death was overdetermined by the wolfteam.