April Showers The Third - MAFIA + NEUTRAL VICTORY

This is an odd thought that I figured I would share: what if Leafia is a wolf trying to frame pandora here? It would mean that she was not in a wolf chat on Day 1, when Chomps removed Leafia, Frostwolf103, and myself from their chats, but she is now. It is an awkward theory, so I do not really subscribe to it right now, but I feel it is worth putting forth.

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D4 Votecount

Leafia (1): soweli

Not Voting (9): Chomps, Leafia, Jarek, Rhea, pandora, Kiiruma, Marluna, carbonated, SMILEY

Only night 3 (I misspoke)

Why did Canping not get infected before his death after you targeted him? Is there a specific clause in your role preventing that?

I use the action at night but it takes effect start of next day so I assume shenanigans with that

what purpose does infecting people even have

it advances my win condition and not much else

Interesting. The Infection would have taken effect if Canping targeted somebody Infected on Night Three, though, correct? Can we conclude that Canping must have targeted somebody who was not Infected with his Bodyguard, then?

I don’t know if I fully believe that however neither do I think it’s worth being paranoid about

Personally I’d be looking at one of leafia or pandora, maybe chomps but I’m holding out hope they can still be forced to clear more people before we kill em’, especially if their ability is just an X-shot neighbourhood remover ability.

I’m not sold on kiiruma though personally, or at least I don’t think they’re the best flip we can go for - besides chomps/kiiruma being a pairing maybe.

Both Leafia and pandora have been claimed by Chomps to not be in any neighborhoods. It would make more sense to kill Chomps first here, unless you think there are wolves who are not in wolf chat.

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I’m just finding it hard to place worlds where chomps comes up with this ability or (and absolutely no offense to chomps here) is even encouraged to claim this ability by another wolf. Seems prone to being caught out mech-wise unless this ability is just unlimited.

I mean it’s likely this is similar to his actual role because he is kicking people out

Yeah I know

and it bothers me that they didn’t pick the last 3 people that they hadn’t picked since they hadn’t gotten a hit yet since that would be a sure-fire way to either guarantee you get a hit or you learn something about the game (since if you haven’t gotten a hit picking everyone…)

Still if carbon is telling the truth and we’re at Lylo I’m looking for an easier target that’s more obvious than that you know what I mean

My theory is that Chomps actually has this ability, but has been encouraged to claim that it removes people from wolf chats by another wolf in order to clear that partner. If we believe the claim, we will execute outside of the ā€œclearsā€ for a few days, and by the time it becomes obvious that it is a lie, it will be too late.

Is this the most effective claim in the long-term? No, but it is effective in the short-term, and if Chomps’ days were limited in the first place, which I believe they were, and the other wolf is in a good place, it is well worth making.

Anybody volunteering to be infected next btw

@Jarek, the votes are not locked, so it is not considered ā€œLYLOā€. This is distinct from the condition that was imposed on Heiter’s role, and presumably also on carbonated’s role:

If carbonated is telling the truth, I believe the most likely scenario is that we have two wolves left and two neutrals (three including Smiley). The last two April Showers games also had three wolves and two neutrals each.

oh non-town players
i thought it was mafia
smhsmhsmhsmhsmh

Perhaps I should have continued the deception and kept you townsiding. Well, it is too late now.

Let me consider my options