Frieren: Beyond Journey's End Mafia - Day 2 [14/17]

[Frostwolf103]

@melatonin

also I think catbae factional would come from you. granted, it’s probably likelier the factional was on 36501, so this point doesn’t matter

meow

This does have a merit to be concerned where the factional attack landed actually.

@melatonin

jason / 36501 / dia / leafia / soweli

It’s getting clear that 36501, Leafia and Soweli are universally towncore.

[Frostwolf103]

@jason.mrrown

town
36501, dia, soweli

@jason.mrrown

poe:
frost, kiiruma, melatonin, beancat

@melatonin

jason / 36501 / dia / leafia / soweli

Funny.

[Frostwolf103]

Surely, there’s no plagiarism involved.

[Frostwolf103]

@Soweli @AngryFrog @diafiasco @36501 @ElizaThePsycho @Leafia

I have a question, this is important…

What are your current town/mafia readlist at? Just names is fine, coloring green/red is optimal but I understand the top and bottom well enough.

[Frostwolf103]

@Frostwolf103

Either bold to leave breadcrump for towncred if either of them got executed or misleading us into misexe. Snow, 36501, Melatonin and Tutuu. I pick up Snow because of wordplay.

I would also add, since Hippo is dead, the remaining mafia would not follow the kill list here and pick someone who’s far more townier.

[melatonin]

@tutuu it hit me that jason moved up a lot for you – why?

meow

[tutuu]

Trusting you and catbae

[melatonin]

checks out back to sleep I go zzz

man I had some dream that was relevant but it’s been lost

is frost usually this coherent I think some his posts made some sense to me & I’ve been led to believe they usually don’t. but they seem good

meow

[Eve]

@36501

pandora hard potatoing and jaiden taking the lead so hard is kinda wolfy ngl

@36501

idk jaiden was doing pretty good tonewise but she’s able to be indignant and argue a case regardless – she tends to feel fairly strongly of “even if i’m wolf, objectively that was/wasn’t towny” and can argue from that place sincerely

great points thanks for wolfreading me correctly

[melatonin]

wait this dream was not at all relevant

the world was melting into chocolate around me and I was watching the water/chocolate level rise from my window and hoping it would stop before it actually started flooding in and also there were some random attacks where someone random would out of nowhere start killing people and the most recent one killed 18 people with like drugged gas and then a knife and people were freaked out and this tied into the chocolate stuff because we were letting people into the house with fruit that was vaguely salvageable post chocolate flood (apparently they all got briefly frozen) and concerned one of them might kill us but also apples… but apparently the pears were better anyways. maybe the hintings of a government conspiracy thrown in.

also frost gummy’s towncore might be different from mine

meow

[melatonin]

I’ve been meaning to ask and feel slightly stupid: is jaiden eve

meow

[tutuu]

Jaiden and pandora are the heads of the hydra eve. Jaiden is the one whos been playing, she posts in a different font, pandora uses a regular font

[Eve]

its probably best to call me lilith. this being a hydra of lilith and pandora is the intent

[Eve]

@melatonin

I’ve been meaning to ask and feel slightly stupid: is jaiden eve

i wonder if youd ask this the same if we were both in scum chat? the thing is we’re both hydras which makes this question Peculiar to me (and odd to fake) but notably i have a tendency to refer myself as Tom York in private chat during games so you genuinely could miss that im jaiden. and also you have direct access to ask me. ponderous

[ElizaThePsycho (Willow)]

hey guys
are we really fucking doing this again

[melatonin]

unclear what you’re implying since you would know we’re not in a private chat together, but I did ask gummy without getting a response (may have gotten buried in my posting)

meow

[Frostwolf103]

Unrelated.

[Leafia]

@Frostwolf103

@36501

if she wasn’t already getting voted i’d say yes but i don’t actually find it to be an interesting vote unless it’s opposed by a different vote (hippo doesnt count) so i don’t want to support it

I quoted in the #1403 no less.

This quote isn’t 36501 opposing a Hippo vote.

@Frostwolf103

This would be a good focus for the day, unironically I have both 36501 and Willow as scumlean.

A better focus would be Eve and how she was defending Hippo.

As well as not letting paranoia cloud our thinking.

@snow

I’m free now, but it’s late for me and I’ll most likely go to bed soon. I was thinking, doesn’t Hippo’s flip make beancat mafia alongside him?

Of course not.

@Eve

also no he knew he was probably dying and he has the experience to hold restraint there and not take out a mafia member with him

Hippo 100% was trying his best to survive there. That much is obvious to me.

@soweli

what is hippo’s alternative if he’s partnered with carbon? to adamantly refuse the lifeline & keep wagoning tutuu

Perhaps maybe not take down a teammate with him?

@AngryFrog

Cool. Hippo (both games w/ him now he was scum) has a 100% record of convincing me not to have my vote on them by EoD every single day phase I have played with them. Now he is gone. Thank you for that; now I will try to return the favor. I feel like I can navigate games with D1 scum flips better than most. This D2 following the scum flip is usually dumb as shit because statistically there is a higher ratio of hits to misses and many town seem to struggle to understand where they’re supposed to be looking and end up voting out a slot that has no fucking chance of flipping scum given an accurate. I think it would be cool to get back-to-back scum flips but I’m assuming it’s going to be like herding cats and the best I can do is tell you repeatedly which ideas of yours are counterproductive while pointing you in the right direction.

Initially I was taught that D1 scum flip is always due to bussing and while usually true there are a few signs I noticed that can indicate it’s not the case:

–the wagon on scum isn’t stacked, it’s a small-medium wagon and there are many smaller wagons
–the wagon on scum was a flash wagon that either fully emerged from nothing at EoD or did exist already but gained most of its votes at the last second
–there is a kookiness to the way the lim played out due to factors like an odd amount of slots not showing up EoD or very late FPS claims/plays from town causing the wagons to both shift and become stuck in ways that aren’t organic or predictable.

Preferably you would see as many of these signs as possible (like all of them.) In that case you can make the smallish number of surviving wagon slots pseudo-IC and form a voting block to get a very strong advantage. This number of surviving onwagon slots in these games is already small enough because the wagon barely goes over and then one of them gets killed every night so unless you’re very, very lucky it’s typically a voting block of 3-5 slots. You always vote offwagon when you have enough of these indicators that it was not a bus. Somehow every town seems to manage to do the opposite and talk themselves into killing one of their pseudo-ICs wasting a day and damaging their small voting block even faster. In these games the slots that move their votes around “suspiciously” EoD are not worth going after right away or sometimes ever because scum were either already parked on a counterwagon during a “nonsuspicious” time, absent from thread during EoD or frozen and pretending to be absent from thread EoD.

Now let’s look at this game. This is a game that has absolutely none of the above signs. That alone is a strong enough indicator that there is at least 1 scum onwagon in a stereotypical “good” spot in the votecount. This game though has multiple additional qualitative signs that-at least to me-make it clear that there is at least one solid bussing scum. These extra signs to me:

–hippo has a “bussee” meta; he allegedly asks to be bussed in scum chat on the norm. In my other game with him he was being pushed the whole time by his partner.
–the contrivance of how a mason claim still ends the day with 9 votes when at that point you can just vote other suspects and kill the mason claim after confirming that they are somehow a magical immortal immune to night kills and have a very mysterious mason partner that doesn’t exist. I’ve seen slots that are more +scum and have far worse claims get passes to check if they are real. The dogpile was a bit more likely to be TMI-assisted IMO due to the presence of Hippo’s mason claim.

So this is a game IMO where we can assess with confidence that there is at least one busser. If this is a game with four scum (four or three?) then I’d say two is pretty likely and otherwise the non-busser scum slots were almost always slots that were AFK or pretending to be AFK because they were afraid of the “late-busser accusation paranoia.” The late-busser accusation paranoia is a pattern I noticed where scum would rather be seen as someone who lurked out EoD offwagon rather than risk being accused of being a late busser. Based on this, depending on the context, I’d delay looking at any outlier slot who jumped on Hippo at the very last second for seemingly no reason because these slots are very >rand town IMO. I wouldn’t overcommit to this because late-bussing is a thing especially if it’s one of multiple onwagon scum slots and some players aren’t paranoid about it as scum; I just find objectively at least in these situations that the last slot at the end there that looks real “suspicious” is very >rand town. Similar, slots that move their votes around EoD in real “suspicious” ways that don’t indicate they have any TMI are very >rand town. Players moving their votes off of hippo EoD in response to the mason claim or anything else are also very >rand town.

The slot(s) that we are looking for are well-positioned and very clear about their suspicion of hippo in-thread. That doesn’t necessarily mean that they have to be hard to find at all; in fact I feel that more town have an intuition about fake scum

Not sure whether to call this villagery or wolfy. On the one paw, it’s pretty introspective and thought provoking but on the other paw, it basically bests around the bush massively with absolutely no conclusion. Nowhere does Frog mention who he this these wolves he’s talking about could be.

I feel those that are talking about a possible bus are more likely to be wolves here.

@tutuu

catbae probably successfully bodyguarded may. i heavily tinfoiled him overnight from the way he tried to get people to switch off of hippo. though, if carbonated is mafia, catbae GOAT, and he was plausibly directly attacked

I find it more likely that he died protecting you actually, not May.

@jason.mrrown

keeping track of vote count is really easy on fol you just have to click the little hammer at the bottom of each post

Such a cute hammer! Petpetpet

@tutuu

carbonated might be an overwhelmed wolf. she asked for a d1 pass, so looking forward to what she can deliver d2. im looking over her ISO and im seeing words and participation but not many reads and pushes

The wolves tried to push Carbon to save Hippo.

@diafiasco

actually no if i were wolf id block leafia so she outs that she has an action and gets hammered

Except I don’t have an action. Except talking and voting.

@tutuu

to clarify i think Eve has the highest chance to flip wolf but im greedy i want info from killing her via execution. beancat execution day leads to stagnation regardless of beancat alignment

Then vote Eve.

@tutuu

I suspect eve and willow and snow. I can’t vote multiple ppl. I voted willow because i saw she has a wagon. If i were to vote eve id be alone doing nothing

My argument for willow is [i will reply to it in my next post below]

Tutuu. I exist. I’m voting Eve.

@tutuu

@melatonin

tutuu please stay around and keep posting you’re very reassuring, and your pocket is cozy. it’s crazy how high tutuu townpoints go whenever he posts and then how much they drop right after though

meow

This is meow:

Well i have physiological needs. I think you might be prone to recency bias, or like, a baseline level of constant paranoia of me, if your read on me correlates to me posting vs not posting

Video successfully saved to favorites. Cute kitten is cute.

@tutuu

Ok i submitted

I can confirm.

@melatonin

Also i think catbae died bc mafia shot catbae

Doubt it.

@Frostwolf103

What are your current town/mafia readlist at? Just names is fine, coloring green/red is optimal but I understand the top and bottom well enough.

Will post it later once I’ve eaten and am less sleepy and hungry.

Now to grt something to eat. Probably play some Gates to Infinity too.

[Eve]

i like to think from the Outside Perspective

[Eve]

@Leafia

@Eve

also no he knew he was probably dying and he has the experience to hold restraint there and not take out a mafia member with him

Hippo 100% was trying his best to survive there. That much is obvious to me.

he literally claimed he was doing Mason Theatre he was having fun