I agree with the spirit, but I don’t think willow would be very active in wolfchat based on my experience wolfing with her. like the extent of our coordination that game was agreeing to push each other & then I did all the night actions myself
meow
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LOL
G
I want to argue I wouldn’t have let it happen either, but I don’t think anyone would believe me bc dia is tunneled and I don’t know where jason’s thought process is anymore
meow
This does hit upon my ‘What if things happened while Willow wasn’t around?’ point, so I could buy it somewhat there if your experience aligns with it potentially.
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I was paranoid he was being obvious about softing a role for towncred later in the game. jason did that in katseye with his I hate being vanilla crumb. it clashed with my understanding of kiiruma’s play as mech-focused – he wouldn’t be so obvious pr soft if he actually had an important role bc he does fly under the radar in this playerlist. the only claims I was okay w kiiruma claiming were vt or something that benefitted from baiting mafia actions, like vet.
I know you think it’s us, but at least consider this reasoning I guess.
meow
I had to ping willow to get sanity checks on what I wanted to claim…to her credit, she did respond when I pinged (and told me I shouldn’t claim kp as mafia. which we actually ended up making her do & claim to shoot me), but she wasn’t very active in discussing
meow
dia, do you think willow is similar to how she was in madoka? I don’t, but you actually played
meow
do you think me this game sounds like me in grande ideas trying to be sus of you? maybe. I feel we’re more theaterfia
meow
I don’t think snow was checked out of the game. I think they were overplaying how overwhelmed they were (I’m sure it was overwhelming, but I think they may have read more posts than you gummy)
meow
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No but the context is too different, I think
Willow subbed in, didn’t post at all, died D1, and then was conftown for the entire rest of the game after the reset
I do not know how she plays when she is town and not proven by mech
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I unvoted willow off your conviction she was town + yes part of me considered she could be towny + tutuu could be wrong after eve. but I thought your towncase was viable
I was fine leaving my vote on her until she claimed otherwise
meow
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hmm that’s true I forgot she got confirmed. she kept playing though despite having an “easy” coast to never be pushed? it’s the opposite this game
read through her play in grande idea mafia, what she’s doing here is within the same range (barely any reads, doesn’t vote ever again, pops in in thread for mech but doesn’t give reads) (I admit that I think it’s entirely within her town range too though)
meow
she has like 200 posts, most are mech fluff
you can read me too I guess, I was wolf with her. some parallels to this game (d2 tutuu flashwagon, jason tunnels, me under voting pressure)
meow
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well you probably don’t want to read me, I had 1k posts, and I’d rather you read me this game if you were going to that effort
meow
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Meow can u check our thread plz
~g
eh willow’s iso feels a bit better this game, and she said she was busy. a check in would still be nice though
meow
I haven’t said much but I’ve been thinking about the game. First of all, I’m not sure how many of us truly comprehend how excellent back to back scum lims are for town. Here’s a tool I like to use sometimes to get a prognosis for where we’re really at in the game:
http://games-net.de/hosted/tggc/trash/mafiacalc.php?mafia=4&town=13&phase=0&votechance=5&do=Go!
13(town)-4(scum) with a D1 scum lim moves the win % from 23% to 35% assuming scum kill a town slot at night. Then on D2 a second consecutive scum lim moves the win% from 35% to 50% (i know carbon died first during the day and scum failed to kill at night but idc it still ends up at 50% today.) These numbers are assuming mountainous by the way so any help from PRs to improve our reads isn’t even being counted in that 50%. In other words, at least on a purely quantitative level, town has more than doubled their chances to win once the second scum slot went over. Qualitatively things can be different as maybe scum played some kind of gambit to get themselves town cred or whatever but at a foundational level the back-to-back scum lims are enough to completely turn the tables from how the game started out.
I like 5% for the accuracy of town reads (that number means 5% for more likely to vote scum than town) because it’s on the cynical end of realistic. This game has been studied enough that we know humans playing the uninformed majority faction have a marginal edge when it comes to voting scum over town and the edge is not nearly enough to compensate for the knowledge and communication of humans playing the informed minority. I believe in theory that mountainous probably could become townsided if play was optimal across the board but in practice it’s been demonstrated under decent control conditions to be heavily scum sided in practice. Addressing this core imbalance is one of the design intents behind adding power roles to the game (they aren’t just for fun) so the fact that these numbers are assuming a more cynical read % of 5% and this isn’t a mountainous game means that we can objectively say that town is straight up winning.
If you’re curious I’m pretty sure the tool can also tell you how likely it is to get results like a consecutive back-to-back scum flip. I don’t remember what the chance is but I remember it being really low and something I only recall seeing once before*1 in forum mafia and it lead to a slog that eventually ended in a town loss (lol.) I’ve wanted to see more games starting with back-to-back scum lims for a while now and I paid close attention to games with D1 scum lims to see where town’s were going wrong. This why D2 I had my “epic length novel” that said “very little” other than VOTE! ONWAGON! TODAY! I feel like that is exactly what needed to be said to keep us on the right direction to hit scum again EoD2.
*1 I have seen this once before and it was a hellbus D1 into a double bus D2 and the scum slot went on to solo win the game which was an abject slog full of town on town violence. The importance of this isn’t that you should trust my experience in that 1 game and work ourselves tinfoiling every slot in the towncore until we collapse into a fever dream; my point is that we are at a stage where I no longer trust my intuition and game sense because this is not a position where I have enough experience to pop off–or “crash out early” as the hydra described my D1-correctly and warn us if we go down the wrong track.
Thus far I believe I was a positive influence on town not as a hero running up scum slots but as a wise fool who is frequently behind and confused on basic elements of the game but able to offer wisdom about the approach we need to be taking in each of the gamestate’s we’ve entered thus far. Now that I don’t have my intuition to help me; I believe I can no longer influence town in a positive way as this wise fool archetype anymore so I have to either evolve as a player or watch myself regress from wise fool to mere fool. I don’t believe this is necessarily bad for town’s chances at all because as I demonstrated at the beginning of this “epic length novel” town is objectively winning and I don’t being dead weight on my own is enough to change that. I also think it’s important to be the change we want to see and take accountability; if we all allowed ourself to become deadweight our advantage could eventually dissipate if scum are resilient or better positioned than we expect, so even though I could shitpost and follow my townreads for the rest of the game and we will probably win, I’d prefer to evolve as a player so that I can continue to contribute in some different way however small while closing out the game.
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frog did you get neighborized by tutuu
(your posting is great)
meow
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I thought this was supposed to be a secret
Yeah i thought it was supposed to be a secret