Frieren: Beyond Journey's End Mafia - Night 2 [13/17]

[Leafia]

@melatonin

leafia’s confidence in [mafia shot tutuu n1 and catbae bodyguarded tutuu] and [mafia dayvig shot carbon, not carbon shooting town] with mech levels of confidence while being a VT is something my mind cannot wrap itself around

meow

Everything is just guesses that U feel have a reasonable chance of being correct.

@ElizaThePsycho

and if there is a dayvig, i kinda feel like Carbonated Who Presumably Hasn’t Claimed is not exactly the best shot

I’ve seen way worse shots. One in particular that Catbae made one game as town.

@melatonin

one possible explanation for the lack of explicit carbon crumb is that host may not have been able to process her action until just now, but carbon actually logged the shot when she made the “eve will need to be resolved” post, I suppose. she likes her drama. that essentially happened in grande ideas I think unless I misremembered what happened.

meow

Doubt it.

I can’t believe everyone is buying into the Carbonated must’ve shot Eve narrative so hard. I admit it isn’t impossible for that to bd the case, but it’s far from a certainty lkke everyone seems to believe. When I inevitably die N2, uou gotta promise me that you’ll yeet Eve into the sun D3 town.

@soweli

i don’t think hippo claims mason d1 if he wants to live;

He totally does.

@melatonin

im fine w a 22 vote i dislike their posting

they are TOO confident

~g

Read Beatings 4 then. Tutuu was just as confident there and was town.

@jason.mrrown

oh yeah idk how to evaluate leafia her posts are either pure agenda or uber-tunneled town and I can’t tell the difference

They’re smart town with a brain.

@AngryFrog

This post though ^^

Apparently you do have some macro level threadstate reads you use and they are familiar to me!

@tutuu

Q: Is the towncore infested with deep wolves?

A: No, we don’t have a lot of in-fighting. Towncore is pretty consensus, and majority of you are polarized. The PoE is not fighting back (which they do when they’re all town)

Q: Is it rational to feel paranoia right now?
A: No. It’s too early, and it would be purely an emotional reaction. It’s not logical. “The game can’t be this easy” ( after a wolf flip) is purely an emotional paranoia, a form of pessimism. Doomerism, if you will

So the first part wasn’t something I thought to mention because of my cynicism of pessimism; if there was a lot of infighting, lack of consensus, I experienced a lot of cog diss trying to sort multiple slots, there was a presence of somewhat odd nightkills and I saw people in the PoE fighting back harder than anyone else you can be sure I would be screaming about deep scum and power wolves until i turned blue in the face. In this case though I don’t see these indicators of danger which is a very encouraging sign. It’s not intuitive to me to share about an absence of signs indicating danger but maybe it’s something I can work in. I agree with tutuu’s assessment here to such an extent that I don’t feel motivated to play devil’s advocate gasp . The only parts I disagree with are that I don’t necessarily feel more comfortable knowing the town core is consisting of people who are polarized. Some players just improve suddenly or have a good game that puts them out of their scum range everyone has come to expect. This town clearing of polarized slots seems to allow for more situations where I see entire lobbies get swept and jumpscared by the postgame flips. I guess ultimately it’s good that there is meta indicating our reads are correct; it’s just something that’s also good to remain skeptical about IMO because again it’s the factor that I see become the most dangerous when manipulated by scum.

For the latter part, high paranoia gamestate reads where it’s like numbers + tutuu working together doesnt make sense to me in this context because in that scenario then more of the elements above should be present. With the “cant be that easy” solves then it depends on what that means cause scum can be starting to lurk out and if it looks too obvious to be true it can still just be true. It’s possible that the busser is also lurking now and then one of the last scum slots is in the quiet lurker slots who was offwagon for example. Im still fundamentally opposed to the idea of looking offwagon though without a good reason. OTOH beancat for example could be a good offwagon read maybe w/ the rationale they were either not around to bus hippo or felt it was too late and preferred to lurk it out.

I wish Frog would stop writing epic length novels to say very little.

[Leafia]

@Leafia

They’re smart town with a brain.

Slight typo here. Meant I’m not They’re. Pretty sure I’m Leafia.

[Leafia]

Also, if I’m right about Eve being a wolf, Soweli is always her partner here.

[Frostwolf103]

Based on Eve’s interaction alone, or is there more?

[Leafia]

Based on how Soweli is pushing the Carbonated tried shooting Eve angle the hardest when that’s not even close to being the most likely scenario. I feel Carbonated is a much better player than to try to shoot without telling anyone that she was doing so.

[Frostwolf103]

@Leafia

Based on how Soweli is pushing the Carbonated tried shooting Eve angle the hardest when that’s not even close to being the most likely scenario. I feel Carbonated is a much better player than to try to shoot without telling anyone that she was doing so.

What do you think of Soweli’s vote on Hippo? I found this while looking into Kiiruma, for he claims the votes against Hippo earlier are pressure votes and not out of suspicion 3094

[Leafia]

Haven’t really looked into that but I think I’ll do so later. For now, I’m going to hesd out as I’ll be esting breakfast soon.

[Eve]

hey leafia who did carbon shoot and why

[Leafia]

I’m not Carbon and she could’ve essily been dayvigged by the wolves too.

[Eve]

okay so you think carbon randomly heroshot without ever breadcrumbing? or we’re in a double dayvig game and mafia chose to detect carbonated night 1 by like the will of god

[Eve]

give us your most likely carbon targets because youre certain she didn’t shoot me

[diafiasco]

gm chat, i did too much mafia gaming yesterday so im probably going to backread during my lunch break, vote by like 1 and maybe peace out for rest of day

[melatonin]

don’t think I will vote eve or tutuu today.

gummy seems generally swamped with homework, and I’ve got something for most of the day, so I assume we’ll both pop in between now and end without being able to post a lot.

I’m still okay with a willow vote & if she remains leading wagon, she should probably claim soon to avoid a hippo eod again

meow

[tutuu]

I dont got nothing else to say

Iso me for legacy

I recommend voting Willow

I wouldn’t trust if she claims a killing or a protective role

[tutuu]

I mean maybe town jailkeeper could coexist with town bodyguard. I wouldn’t trust a doctor claim. What other protective roles are there, it should be just that. Firefighter in case mafia has an arso. Healer in case poisoner

[jason.mrrown]

ok i’m gonna say it: i think willow is threadspewed town and shouldn’t be voted

willow has been the leading wagon for the majority of d2 along with eve, and once carbon cleared eve, no real counterwagon has emerged

here’s the chart i’ve made

with the caveats that i’ve only taken d2 reads into account, my interpretation of readslists is subjective, and a large chunk of it is unfilled from people not giving thoughts on slots, willow is consensus scum by basically everyone except me and soweli

hippo was a leading wagon for most of d1, but i believe this situation is different, since no wolfteam wants to lose members back-to-back d1 and d2 and would likely defend w!willow harder.

i think the state of the thread suggests that wolves are fine with willow dying, which gives me more confidence in my prior read that willow is town.

[jason.mrrown]

actually feel free to ignore the chart i think it’s bad but my point about willow being consensus scum stands

[soweli]

Hmmm
I mean willow/beancat/{snow/kiiruma} still works (beancat not in thread, snow kiiruma afraid to push)

Idk the issue is that willow still has an expiry date & trying to resist probably won’t change much from most people whilst making them look bad (if by way of “actually willow is town” which is the most effective) we’re also lacking in clear alternatives that people like

It could be tutuu trying to bus to solidify towncred in theory

[soweli]

Ok i was admittedly expecting a directed graph & not a spreadsheet but alas.

I think part of the thing is we don’t really have a good case on willow.

Tutuu’s “oh willow would be angrier as town” seems like straight up inverted to me, im biased because i find myself crashing out more as mafia as of late but you know, mafia cares about surviving, they did plays that should be unpairing and yet they’re getting glossed over this is how town loses games

Tutuu understandably does not think this way.

I also like the “she would have just claimed with hippo argument”

[jason.mrrown]

@soweli

willow/beancat/{snow/kiiruma}

yeah… i guess i have a preexisting bias that wolf teams must have at least one high poster bc otherwise they’re just asking to be rolled over by town

@soweli

It could be tutuu trying to bus to solidify towncred in theory

…that’s a disturbing alternative i hadn’t thought of
…would w!tutuu bus two of his teammates back to back just for towncred?