Kittens Game: Combinatorics Mafia - GAME OVER, TOWN WIN

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

hehe

[Zugzwang]

This post has been scheduled to post at this time.

Hey everyone, I’m probably in class currently (though there’s a good chance I’ll go online anyway). Also don’t sheep this post too much because I’m posting it partially because I want to have an actual use for scheduling posts, and SOD is… pretty much the only practical case here.

So. After pondering at night I think Ash is most likely to be the town in the pool. It’s clear Kii’s nearly always wolf. As for Marluna vs. Ash though:

Ash

While Ash did vote Kii despite wolfreading him D1, his reasons for doing so, and the progression accompanying it, are better than Marluna’s.

Quite a bit before voting, we see this:

@Ash in post 150 (yeah I typed this at night so no quoting)

The weird thing to me is that if this ends up as a 1/3, Kiiruma’s very obviously the 1 in 3, so it just seems like an unnecessary risk for mafia to take.

Then the vote:

@Ash in post 289

If we get 1/3 from VOTE: Kiiruma, VOTE: Zugzwang, and VOTE: Tutuu, it’s absolutely Kiiruma. I can’t see Zugzwang being mafia, and Tutuu’s name was not put in by him (in contrast to Kiiruma).

Later:

@Ash post 866

Weirdly enough, I’m actually leaning towards Kiiruma/Zugzwang/Derps because I read you and Derps as town and Kiiruma as a potential POE. Thus, a 0/3 is best-case scenario, but a 1/3 is still useful information.

@Ash post 874

VOTE: Kiiruma
VOTE: Zugzwang
VOTE: Derps

The progression here is pretty clear, and Ash explained without being asked.

The other thing I like about Ash’s reasons are that, as I realized D2, there’s actually pretty good. Voting people who are unknown, alongside people who are towny, gives more information in the case of 0/3. And if you’re confident enough on your townreads or wolfreads, then you can conclude safely enough the unknown/wolfy person was wolf. Depending on the relative confidence of your reads, it’s sometimes better to get a 1/3 with 2 townreads and 1 null/wolfread, than it is to get a 0/3 with 3 townreads. If you already were certain those 3 people (in the 0/3) were town… you haven’t actually learned anything from a mech confirm.

Marluna

As for Marluna. She initially voted Kii/Tutuu/Me, and when I asked her reason:

@Marluna post 123

Since more than three players already decided to go with you three, I don’t think mafia had a big chance to influence this decision and I want prevent them to doing so in the future of this day.

Votecount at the time:
Zugzwang (7): Someone, beancat, Zugzwang, Kiiruma, tutuu, Bionic, Marluna
tutuu (6): Someone, Zugzwang, Kiiruma, tutuu, Bionic, Marluna
Kiiruma (5): beancat, Kiiruma, tutuu, Bionic, Marluna
No Prisoner 3 (1): Someone
Someone (1): beancat

Not Voting (5): Ash, Frostwolf103, Hippopablompoyeetus, guavagudetama, SirDerpsAlot

Considering there are 3 wolves, this isn’t sound at all - it’s very possible 2 or 3 of the people making this decision were in fact the wolves.

---

Later, there’s this:

@marluna post 1842

Derps is thinking It’s the mafia team.

I will just laugh at them by myself, if we get a 0/3 with this.

@marluna post 1843

But if it’s consensus I might as well.

VOTE: kiiruma
VOTE: hippo
VOTE: marluna

@marluna post 1844

Kii is their Kii self, and I doesn’t have the same vibe from them I had in Lizards. (Tbf, i got suspicious on them only at D3 there, but botc and this game is a bit different.)

And I trust thei judgement on Hippo. [context: Kii townreads Hippo at this point]

Given this, we know that Marluna believed it’s a 0/3, to some greater or lesser degree. This in itself isn’t too strange, but voting purely because it’s consensus is. There isn’t a town reason to be so ambivalent.

Also, Marluna probably shouldn’t trust Kii that much, considering that Kii also was wolfreading her.

Now, assuming the masons haven’t been guessed, we have a lot of guesses available with the same worst case, some of which are detailed below:

One such guess is two people from Kii/Marluna/Ash, and one from outside - so yes, we could go for a win today, without sacrificing a guess in the worst case scenario.

Another guess is splitting the remaining players 3/3, as mentioned yesterday. More interestingly, we could also split them 4/2, with the 2 being 2 wolfy people.

We could also check an individual player in Kii/Marluna/Ash, hoping to get full confirmation there.

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

idk if ur allowed to schedule game related posts that feels kinda cheeky lmao

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

Yeah I agree its marluna/kii i think

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

@Hippopablompoyeetus

Are you also mafia

Witness me

[Ash]

Well, that makes things easy.
VOTE: Marluna
VOTE: Kiiruma

[Ash]

I feel like that’s the best use case for scheduling posts?
Like, why go through all the hassle otherwise?

[Zugzwang]

not me being online 2 minutes later anyway

but yeah they said it was fine as long as I marked them as clearly scheduled (though they will decide for the long-term after this game)

[anon21242589]

ngl im like actually shocked that that was a 2

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

Idk fmpov in a mash its pretty sus if people can start scheudle ita shots at start of its windows, for example

[beancat]

I have returned from my conference and I am ready to contribute once again

[Ash]

It certainly makes our lives easier.

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

I think we do frost/someone/tutuu today

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

I refuse to be in same group of 3 as frost

[beancat]

the heroshot in me says hippo/kii/marluna for the win

the logician in me says dont do that

[beancat]

this is a horrendous idea

next

[anon21242589]

God I also dont want to be in the same 3 as frost

[tutuu]

kii marluna hippo

kii marluna guava

kii ash hippo

kii ash guava

imo

we’re guaranteed two more guesses at the minimum

we could go for 2 or 3 town?

could check 1 player only in hippo/guava

could check like. someone/hippo

could check someone/hippo/bionic

i dunno. a lot of possibilities

[anon21242589]

or hippo

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

How, obviously we wanna split the 6 to get 3 ayto clears