yeah and I think executing the duke is a bad idea.
Time to pull off a soweli:
Mute tf out of this game thread for 40+ hours.
This game just gives me stress.
Soweli has nothing to do with this!
Kelsier
Frostwolf103
Zone_Q11
Pandora
Catbae
Hazardwaste
Rhea → Katze
Daeron
8 people alive
mislynch > 7 people alive
factional kill > 6 people alive
prince execute > 5 people alive
okay if kelsier is prince and we mislynch we don’t instantly lose the game unless catbae has pupil’d Kelsier
fantastic things could be worse
It’s so insane how we were on the verge of winning, to the verge of losing because of a neutral lmao
Kelsier - Duke . N1 catbae, N2 Zone, N2 received Death card
- can’t be starting BD due to being the duke
catbae - Senex . N1 Frost, N1 Sentenced to death, N2 ???
- is psuedo-confirmed non-Unseen due to the claimed Viscount message + Willows flip, could technically be a BD fakeclaim
- but for it to be a BD fakeclaim they’d have to be a role that messed with Daeron’s peek N1
pandora - Handmaiden . N1 Willow, N2 [holster]
- investigated as not BD N1 by Kiiruma – can only be starting BD if they are exactly a BD role that appears as unseen N1
Daeron - Marchioness . N1 Frostwolf/catbae same alignment, N2 Frostwolf/Willow different class groups
- very unlikely to be starting BD due to the catbae/Willow Viscount stuff; only way that i can think of is if Willow was trolling catbae in the message but that’s directly anti-wincon?
Frostwolf103 - Sibyl . N1 Hazard w. Priestess, N2 Kelsier w. Death
- confirmed not a social/support role via Daerons check, which lines up with Sibyl claim
- N1 check from Daeron eliminates the chance of non-pupil Frost being BD
Zone_Q11 - Aristocrat . N1 Chomps (no ping), N2 Chomps (no ping), N2 Sentenced to death
- confirmed to visit Chomps N1
Hazardwaste - Fanatic . N1 Chomps, N1 received Priestess card, N2 Atlas, N2 Priestess card Zone
- successfully bled Zone on N1 – confirming Zone’s visit & their role
Rhea/katze - Minstrel N1 [holster] N2 [holster] D3 use day ability 
other things that happened
- on N1 BD killed nobody; sources of protection N1 are:
- Frostwolf being protected by catbae/Atlas
- myself being protected by Chomps
- Willow having passive death immunity
- on N1 MKP died
- seems like this has to have been the duke
- on N2 the Unseen King died and there was no double kill on N3
- i think just based off of wording that this doesn’t mean much, as the third BD wouldn’t be a Heroine
the top list is sorta tiered in a way thats searching for starting BD since convert hunting is kinda just a shot in the dark
It could be fake, honestly.
Hazardwaste starting Paladin is a thought I have circled about 5 times and my conclusion always ends up being that I think Hazard would get scared to claim it, especially as one of the first claims
It’s theoretically possible but in practice you do run the risk of being caught by the logic of how Fanatic’s ability works
wow this would’ve been useful if you could actually use it last night
Technically, the paladin exisiting means Pandora can be also Paladin that way, since the day bleed will prevent being redchecked. That applies to everyone. N1 results are less trustworthy.
The viscount is the fool.
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@Daeron @katze remember that Hazard claimed he visited Atlas as whoever attacked him gets bleed?
Whatever happened to that?
Jarek has ruled that bleeds last two nights
They should die this night
Kelsier cannot be starting BD, could be converted. i don’t see any immediate way to confirm kelsier as non-converted
for catbae to be starting BD he would have had to fakeclaim Senex while sentenced and also be a BD role that specifically investigated as unseen N1 or tampered with daerons check otherwise – provided they aren’t starting BD they cannot be converted
for pandora to be starting BD she would have to be a role that investigates as unseen N1
- i dont think it’s possible for pandora to be the heroine on N1 given MKP/Amelia both flipped it
- she could be Paladin who self bled D1, but they would have to have been healed of it by now (and the only way Paladin can heal itself involves bleeding someone else)
- she could be Drunk who redirected Kiiruma to herself, but this is extremely unlikely and I think he would have gotten redirection feedback anyway?
- if it’s possible for one of Amelia/MKP to have been a Physician/Alchemist, they could have targeted her N1 (i don’t think this is possible but this is aleady a lot of effort so im not double checking that)
- she could be the Squire
- she could be Mystic who used her CtA ability on N1 (and then didn’t use her role otherwise)
… all of that seems really unlikely to me except maybe squire. she could be converted
for Daeron to be starting BD then the entire Visionary/Senex stuff would have to be fake, or Willow would have to basically be throwing/trolling. could be converted
for Frost to be starting BD he would have to be exactly the Alchemist and just roleplaying Sibyl, as well as being catbae’s pupil to explain the N1 check Daeron got. could be converted (ok im tired of saying this, literally anyone can be converted)
for Zone to be BD, he would be a role that had a reason to visit Chomps N1; which idk how likely this is or isnt so i will just assume that probably rules out only half the roles or so
for Hazard to be BD then he would essentially have to be exactly the Paladin who either fakebled zone or used their one shot ability on Chomps (personally seems sorta unlikely but idk for sure)
(or, if the bleed isn’t confirmed to be a night bleed, they could be ~any BD role due to Heroine being alive D2 and having bleeds)
for me to be BD then uh… idk lol im not bd hope that helps 
Here’s proof
Yes so they should die N4 because Jarek has nerfed bleeds
hm
so if hazard is real then the third starting BD should die tonight which means if conversion hunting was literally at all possible it would be optimal?
ok so i thought convert had a 1 night cooldown but i dont see that in the OP, just that it cant be done after a BD is killed
i was about to say by that logic we should never execute hazard today since he cant convert tonight if 3rd BD but uh, he might be able to
eh there’s a few roles that could stop this so it wouldnt be guaranteed anyway
Hmm?
Oh I see.