Prehistoric Purgatory - Game Over: Town wins

[Zone_Q11]

Homework Part 1: Derps wagon analysis

Hell 1
VC #9 - 0 votes
VC #10 - 2 votes (Hippo, Rue)
VC #11 - 3 votes (+Lucky) | Three-way wagon (Lucky, Aelin)
VC #12 - 4 votes (+Trochi) | Top wagon (4/3/3)
VC #13 - 4 votes | Lucky top wagon (5/4); Aelin dropped
VC #14 - 7 votes (+Brad, +dota, +Porscha) | (7/4)
VC #15 - 6 votes (Trochi → dota) | (6/4)
VC #16 - 6 votes | Derps self-pres (6/5)
VC #17 - 7 votes (+Gorta) | (7/5)
VC #18 - 8 votes (+Aelin, but Trochi also planned to hammer) | (8/5)

VC #14 is sus. Checking.
P#1333 Brad gave a case on Derps, and voted Derps
P#1334 Brad asked Porscha to vote Derps
P#1342 dota thinks Derps/Lucky are good wagons; I think they think that Lucky is towny because lol isn’t voting Lucky anymore; dota voted Derps
P#1345 Porscha naked vote on Derps; Later mentioned by Rue how their progression on Derps doesn’t make sense

Re-checking VC History to confirm P#1342.
VC #10 - 4 votes (Zone, lol, Wazza, dota)
VC #11 - 3 votes (lol → Aelin)

P#1342 interpretation confirmed. It does not make sense.
According to interpretation, dota’s motivation to vote Lucky was because dota voted Lucky.
Evaluation: “Pretty sure this is a troll player. Problem is that a troll’s behavior is NAI. I don’t have any meta on dota, so I’ll leave this matter to whoever knows dota more than I do.”

Investigation conclusion:
- Send either dota or Porscha to hell.
- Trochi looks towny for breaking tie at VC #12.
- Both Brad’s and Aelin’s claim about Brad’s actions are confirmed. I agree with Aelin’s Heaven 1 read: I wouldn’t locktown Brad, but he is towny.

Tbh, it’s less of an analysis and more of a quick check, because I didn’t go through all the votes.
I’m pretty satisfied with the result though. It’s better than a load of nothing.

[Gorta]

I’m back

[Gorta]

@Moose

kiiruma, Dota, Troch.

I still have a few others to review first, but I’ll get there

[Zone_Q11]

Homework Part 2.1: Fact-checking Gorta's statement on Wazza

@Gorta

The first thing has to be mentioning that mafia would likely try to put more effort into going to heaven, so we shouldn’t have to worry about mafia in the hell phase. This sticks out to me because it seems like mafia would both try to send townies to hell and get sent to heaven, so Wazza’s conclusion is ??? to me.

@Wazza

Chances are we send town to hell so I think our priorities should be on deciding who to send to heaven when the time comes for it, not to mention I don’t think scum care if they’re sent to hell here as they have 2 to drop

basically
drop any chance for people to be townread by bussing, focus on the plan for heaven phase 1 and kill your top scumread without heavily focusing on it

@Wazza

Also to add onto this
Scum are focusing on sending themselves to heaven, not sending town to hell, so we shouldn’t be necessarily worried too much about the hell phase as much as we should be worried about heaven

does this make any sense whatsoever

@Wazza

Our goal is to find wolves but for the first hell phase, that’s practically irrelevant to me, we have a high chance of sending a town to hell so focusing on not sending a wolf to heaven seems like the better strategy, if you [Lucky] are going to impede that with your constant posts that mean absolutely nothing to anybody else in the thread, then get annoyed when people don’t listen to you, then I personally think it’s best if you’re the one who goes anyway

@Wazza

I think you [Lucky] fail to realise how this games dynamics work

Regular FM requires wolves to have only 1 wolf townread to go to the very end and win the game
This game needs them to have majority townread and sent to heaven
We need to avoid them being sent to heaven at all costs

Fast-forward conclusion: I am siding with Wazza. She is town.

Gorta’s statement about Wazza’s statement, "we shouldn’t have to worry about mafia in the hell phase", is incorrect. As mentioned in Wazza’s third quote (P#840), she does not care about hunting scum only in the first Hell Phase.

[Wazza states that mafia’s priority would be sending mafia to heaven.]
[Sending mafia to heaven] is objectively their fastest way to reach victory.
I find nothing wrong with Wazza’s statement.

[Gorta states that mafia would both try to send town to hell and send mafia to heaven.]
The mafia’s win condition is to send 3 mafia to heaven. They can still win even if there are 2 mafia in hell. Having 2 mafia in hell would be a big disadvantage for the mafia, but unless there are already 2 mafia in hell, then sending town to hell is objectively not mafia’s priority.
Therefore, I disagree with Gorta.
The mafia can (and have) bussed Derps to gain towncred. They did not “try their best” to save Derps, and they didn’t have to, since they can afford at most 2 mafia to be sent to hell.

Homework Part 2.2: Review on Gorta/Wazza interaction

@Gorta

I also don’t like that Wazza tried to accuse me for casting a vote later in the day (something I usually do as either alignment) and then later said “your vote wasn’t necessary” as the meaning behind the original post.

@Wazza

Your vote was randomly placed on a slot who you never stated a scumread on beforehand who then flipped wolf, I have every reason to suspect you placed a vote for easy credit.

@Gorta

Like I gave a scumread before and it wasn’t a random vote, but Wazza somehow missed that ???

P#1147 First ever interaction of Gorta/Derps; Gorta answers Derps’ question on how to read Lucky
P#1167 Gorta asks whether Lucky(4)/Zone(2)/Derps(2) are going to be top wagons
P#1213 Gorta mentions how he does not remember how to read Derps, but thinks "there are some questionable posts from Derps near the end of his ISO"
P#1215 Gorta plans to read Lucky “tomorrow”
P#1261 Gorta mentions how Derps "really hasn’t done much more since [Gorta has] been gone"
P#1477 Gorta: “Fine with voting Derps; Not voting Zone; Seth mildly towny; Too tired to commit ISO Aelin”
P#1482 Gorta refuses Derps’ offer to CFD to Brad
P#1494 Gorta claims to have a mild scumread on Derps before (Excuse me, when was this mentioned?)
P#1509 Gorta votes Derps
…
P#2738 Gorta complains how Wazza didn’t see that Gorta was scumreading Derps

Conclusion: Gorta is scummy. Nowhere has he stated that he blatantly scumread Derps aside from the mild scumread P#1494, except in that post, he claims to already have scumread Derps before (albeit mildly) which is untrue. At most, one could argue that Gorta hints at scumreading Derps, but there was no direct scumread made whatsoever.

[Zone_Q11]

20 minutes left until Heaven Phase ends.
Afterwards, there is 24 hours of silence; 24 hours of “rest”.

…welp folks, I dunno what y’all will do, but I ain’t moving my vote.

[Host_Account_1]

Heaven 1 - Votecount 13 (Unchanged)

Vote Target	Voted by	Votes
Lucky	Trochilidae, Hippopablompoyeetus, Rue, dota, lol	5/8
Wazza	Zone_Q11, Kiiruma, BradLand, Moose	4/8
Hippopablompoyeetus	Lucky	1/8
Aelin	Porscha	1/8
Not Voting	Wazza, Gorta, Aelin	3

The phase ends in 18 minutes

[Wazza]

it’s nice having someone who plays the game in the game

[Wazza]

I’m once again going to be insistent on not sending Lucky

[Wazza]

And I’m also going to add on the fact that he’s not directly said he doesn’t want to be sent, only hinted at it yet he’s also not refusing being voted which is pretty scummy if you ask me but I’m still pretty sure he can easily be town

[Lucky]

I don’t trust late game here.

/Vote Wazza

[Lucky]

I refuse for wolves to win.
Wazza can be wolf but the later they stay the worse it is for us since they refuse to do anything they claim.

[Lucky]

So if Wazza is wolf they can control late game real well and if they are Town people could vote them to Hell or pocket them.

Better to remove them today.

[Lucky]

Like if Wazza flips wolf and you all wanna sus me fine but I’d rather not let Wazza control late game if they are wolf.

[Host_Account_1]

Heaven 1 - Votecount 14

Vote Target	Voted by	Votes
Lucky	Trochilidae, Hippopablompoyeetus, Rue, dota, lol	5/8
Wazza	Zone_Q11, Kiiruma, BradLand, Moose, Lucky	5/8
Aelin	Porscha	1/8
Not Voting	Wazza, Gorta, Aelin	3

6 minutes until the phase ends

[Wazza]

you’re going to get sent out anyway

[Trochilidae]

i thought this ended in an hour wtf

[Wazza]

considering you said this way too late

[Trochilidae]

it’s a tie
hmm

[Trochilidae]

gut says let it rand

[Wazza]

Chili
You literally don’t let Lucky go out considering he doesn’t want to go