The beatings will continue until townplay improves - Mafia Wins

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#1601

I looked back and realized I might want to land on Childe first.

I had decent at least reasoning to unpair most slots from Pandora, excluding Childe.

If Childe’s town, then I think Pandora is also town.

Including myself, that’s two players out of the three needed to have a winning towncore in LYLO.

I think that puts me in a really good position to solve within Daeron/Zone/Neon for the two wolves if Childe’s a villager.

If Childe’s a wolf, then it’s a wolf and we’ve done our job. It would be less informative than its teammate, but a wolf is a wolf.

#1602

i literally have never been properly townread this game
dude’s just saying whatever :sob:

#1603

Plus, this comment felt suspicious to me.

#1604

WHAT AM I SUPPOSED TO SAY
IM NOT SELF AWARE
DONT PMO :sob::sob:

#1605

yes town leader

#1606

VOTE: Childe

#1607

You tell that to Daeron:

#1608

thats not really a townread i feel its just saying “yeah this looks good” but whatever

#1609

yeah idgaf man do wjatever helps you solve
feel like i should be less nonchalant over getting hung as town i just dont really know what to say usually

also to general chat hi im a little caught up with schoolwork so ill be less focused for the rest of today
ill try to be here later for eod

#1610

Chomps (2): Daeron, Zone_Q11
childe (2): Io-1, Chomps
Zone_Q11 (1): pandora

Not Voting (2): ImaginaryNeon, childe

#1611

Pandora
Zone
Chomps
Neon
Childe
Daeron

This exercise is actually quite difficult in the current gamestate.

I think I’ve explained my points on Pandora already. I believe a lot of players are unpaired from her - be that because of voting history (Daeron, Zone) or things they’ve said (Chomps). The only valid teams that remain are Childe/Pandora and Neon/Pandora, as far as I’m aware, but I townread both Pandora and Neon. To some extent… yeah, Neon’s not really a townread I should rely on.

I have flipped back to Zone being towny. This happened some hours ago, but I haven’t really put my thoughts into words yet.

Chomps is marginally towny, I think, but not enough to really feel like it’s significantly different than Neon. Chomps has actually started solving a bit more, even if I think the foundation is a bit shaky. That’s a town tell; wolves usually power down as LYLO approaches in games like this one.

I have no idea what Neon’s alignment is. I believe that Neon’s indigence was townie on the micro level that I read it… but within the context of Daeron pushing at him, I think it could happen from either wolf Neon or town Neon. At the very least, it reads as genuine, so I doubt that Daeron/Neon is a legitimate pairing… but I can’t entirely cast it aside. I’m thinking I’d only consider it in LYLO.

Childe is slightly below random because I have only a really small micro read on one of its posts, where it was discussing what it has done that’s the most townie. I read the tone as off, for reasons I don’t remember without looking at it directly. I’m voting here over Daeron since I believe that I get more information here, and that it has a chance of flipping wolf even independently from that. A thought I had early in the game but shut down was that I felt this slot was just posting to hit postmin, which was wolfy. I threw it out at the time because I didn’t consider Childe a viable wagon.

Finally, Daeron. I’m putting him here for consistency’s sake. When I looked back at my own posts I wasn’t as convinced as I used to be. This is also a reason I’m pivoting to Childe and trying to dig my heels in the ground. I think he deserves a reevaluation at the very least - not because he’s demanding it, but because I don’t believe I’m convinced by my own points anymore.

#1612

Now that I think about it, Daeron’s unpaired himself from a few slots as well.

I buy the unpairing with Pandora, and I also buy the unpairing from Neon.

He could still be aligned with Zone… I’m going back and forth on that.

Chomps is very unlikely. I doubt wolves bus in this gamestate, and even if they do, it’s not like Chomps nor Daeron would’ve been able to reap much credit. At the very least, it’d be suspicious that they’re alive in F3 following two rounds of nightkills. That could be me applying too much planning to the pack, but I feel like most wolves don’t bus here.

That leaves Zone and Childe. Childe, who is theoretically being resolved.

By my own logic, that makes him basically the same as Pandora, yet I don’t have the same comfort about trusting him.

I suppose I need more dimensions than a flat list to display that nuance.

#1613

Unless I missed anything, I believe the teams I can see happening are:

  • Childe and anyone (except Chomps, probably)
  • Daeron and Zone
  • Pandora and Neon

…that list is not only much smaller than I feel like it should be, it also manages to capture the entire playerlist outside of Chomps. Great going, me.

#1614

I actually kind of hate these two teams. I don’t know why. It’s just that neither of them really click with me. I struggle to see either of them, although they’re both possible. The macro from Zone and Daeron has been pretty aligned, but some of Zone’s posts in particular read as unpairing.

Meanwhile… I have much less of a logical foundation for being against Pandora/Neon. Maybe that’s a bad sign that I’m being led astray by my intuition.

#1615

If Childe’s a wolf, which I pray is correct, then I don’t know who its teammate is. Daeron probably has to be eliminated by policy for having defended the slot quite a bit in the past, removing it from discussions and sorta shielding it.

If Daeron flips villager, though, then I’m not sure what F3 is going to look like. Nightkills would probably be some order of me/Chomps, since I think bussing doesn’t happen in this current state.

That would leave a Final 3 of Zone/Neon/Pandora… which is probably Zone’s personal nightmare, from what I remember of his reads.

I don’t know. I think it’s too far into the future of hypotheticals to predict, but I’d perhaps gun for a Neon/Pandora crossvote.

I wouldn’t put too much credence behind these words because I’m no prophet. I think the information that would come from the final votecount on a wolf elimination would be rich, as well as what happens on the day after (even assuming Daeron is turbo hung).

#1616

In the world of Childe being a villager, I honestly think I’m likely to be kept alive. I would have proven myself wrong twice in a row, without much of a footing on other slots.

That leaves Pandora as almost guaranteed town for me. The pool becomes Daeron/Neon/Zone/Chomps.

Thinking about it more, I believe Chomps unconditionally sheeping me is a responsibility I didn’t expect, but I honestly think it just makes Chomps a villager.

I don’t see any reason to do that as a wolf when I could be pivoting to your partner any time… unless the wolves just know I’m going to be wrong again.

Which just means that the pool is 2 in Daeron/Zone/Neon.

In Final 5, I would want to make the first vote if I wasn’t nightkilled. That’s usually absolutely not what I do - I’d make the pool of players have a cross - but I don’t trust myself not to watch the wolves pick the cross they’re most likely to win and woo me over. I think I’d just want to rip off the bandage. It would help me with my play overall.

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#1617

I think it helps me a lot if I organize my thoughts like that. I have reread some of my earlier posts and had to squint and use my knowledge of myself to understand them fully, since in some sentences I skip words or thoughts because I have too many to type down in a linear and neat fashion. That is to say, I don’t think anyone else even fully reads those posts like the ones above nor does anyone fully parse what I’m saying, but I honestly don’t expect anyone to.

#1618

I regret my life decisions of staying up. I keep nearly sleeping for about half an hour, only to suddenly be very awake. My body is not happy.

During my time backreading, I noticed something minor after re-reading the OP: Io unvoted Daeron because the latter was at L-1, but we don’t have majority on. Hammers don’t exist in this game.

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#1619

VOTE: childe

#1620

io if youre a wolf im going to nominate you for an award

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