Do not fear, I have read everything thoroughly and wll continue to do so!!
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my entire thoights for the day leading up to the vote:
I was so sure I was dead that I didnât even check thread
show up just to make sure. Iâm not dead? Whoâs dead then? Carbonated, right?
Itâs Childe? Childe is the opposite of a threat.
I agreed wrh this post, but it got me thinking about WHY I wasnât dead.
then Carbonated made their big post and it threw out a lot of red flags.
I also had this thought, but I didnât say it. I didnât need to.
Carbonated very pointedly said that they wouldnât act the way that the wolf acted. I hate âI would never do thatâ arguments.
Also, performative wolf glazing
Going like âWTF the wolf did the most confusing thing??? and now I (a townie) am fucked up about it?â not once not twice but five times is a little much.
To me, waiting is agonizing and I didnât expect to have to put effort into the day and I wanted to make a big play that would either win or get the game over with.
I posted this and then immediately forwarded it to the gms who gave me the go-ahead to snap vote
And then it crystalized in my head:
This was a metaphor for my actual thought process: Do I vote apen, someone I suspect, or do I switch?
âŚWhy am I alive? Iâm pretty much consensus town and I had a plan going into the day. I expected to die because I expected Apen to be wolf and my dying would possibly bury my âkill mistyx me and apen to winâ legacy. If apen let me live, theyâre a much worse mafia player than I thought.
Therefore, there was only one option:
Monty hall in this case meaning re-evaluating my assumed position and biases. I wasnât actually one hundred percent sure, but I wanted to take a bold, make-or-break step and also not think about the game anymore. A vote either way means I donât have to think about the game anymore: Itâs either over or Iâm locked on the real wolf.
Additionally:
If I was wolf, I had zero reason to switch. Iâm a very very very careful and thoughtful wolf, to a fault, which Jaiden could attest to if it was here. Therefore there is literally no reason to change my position going into the final vote: I had a âreadâ, I had built up a âcaseâ and it was built up enough that I couldâve just pinged the other person with all of my âproofâ and calculations and whatever and just voted you. There is literally no reason to abandon all of that for a snap vote with no case, no precident, no progression. Give me a little more credit.
now, was it perfect? No. Was it actually monty hall? uhh kinda? From five, we removed two of the four doors (fmpov), leaving me with two. Although I donât think switching is the actual best solution every time, re-evaluating and choosing one of the two doors independantly of your original choice certainly is.
And like it doesnât make sense for anyone to kill childe EXCEPT carbonated. They couldnât kill you because I had childe HARD locktown. they couldnât kill me because they wanted me to vote for you. Childe was a wildcard
I couldnât kill you because i had clearly set up a 50/50 between us. I wouldnât kill childe because they shared my read on you
You wouldnâtâve killed childe because you had set your sights on them. You wouldnâtâve killed me because I set up that 50/50. If it was either of us, Carbonated would be dead
well you couldâve killed me also i did say this so this is sort of backwards reasoning but like I still maintain that if it was you it would not be childe dead.
A lot of the stuff after the vote WAS backwards reasoning, like carbonated pointed out, seeing signs where before I wasnât sure
but I swear I did have a thought process and there is in fact a method behind my madness. Iâm bad at explaining myself ever but like, i hope Iâve laid out the logic I was working on
tl;dr wallpost pings made me take a gamble
and like, the fundimental question you have to answer in w!pandora world is: There was a player who bought into my case, and instead of constructing a final 3 with myself, a person I had pocketed, and the person we both agreed should die, I killed the one I had pocketed instead of the wildcard. Why?
Thanks!! That does help.
Why would you be so sure of you being dead on a day where you were not going to be executed? Why would you not contribute to the game?? This makes no sense to me
and so? Iâm walking you through my thought process??
I never said that. I was just pointing out why the kill made no sense to me.
I firmly believe this is within my townrange to say this and this is extremely NAI. I would use Stormlight Mafia (a qbcord game) as an example where I was town. Granted my playstyle has also morphed quite a bit since then but yeah.
[ash] â 1/6/25, 12:33 PM
How do you think you would write this differently as mafia versus as town?[carbon] â 1/6/25, 12:33 PM
unless i got fucking redirected or smth
but who would redirect a miller
there would be less information
Yes but
Iâm right and youâre wrong
If town dies out with a whimper here Iâll be soooo disappointed
So whatâs wrong w claiming
Tell me
I must be going insane
[carbon] â 1/6/25, 2:01 PM
Iâm so surprised Iâm not dead yet
I EXUDE towniness
[carbon] â 1/6/25, 2:18 PM
As long as he votes [player] heâs town
Since I have never voted a misexxed town
Oh by the way if you need a recent town game from me to iso grande idea is a good idea 
I think there are also some qbcord perspectives in there on how I play as town/maf.
this feels unnecessary detail for you to add here and why would they not let you anyway itâs in your hands how the game goes. Outside oft his mechanically locking that youâre mafia, I also disliked the snap vote because you are actively disregarding the other hours of time we have to deliberate when the unexpected dies at night.
I would be with you on the last part except the first part without thinking is kind of crazy to me
Yes there is. First off youâre making the same âI wouldnât do this as wolfâ argument (everything you accuse me of doing that led you to the conclusion you are doing as well!) and then secondly yes there is a reason for you to switch.
If you killed off meâthat leaves a straight path to apennine. Almost too easy right?
If you killed off ape â that leaves a straight path to me. Also almost too easy right?
If you killed off childe â first, you kill off your top townread, pulling credit towards yourself. Itâs not like you havenât been teasing that you think Iâm mafia. Especially this:
Why recirculate this if you thought you can pull off a misexe? And yeah I know you said childe before but at that point I think we all knew that childe/apennine if they both made it to endgame both were going to go after each other. So by recirculating childe you open that possibility.
Google:
The Monty Hall problem only works because the host deliberately reveals a door that is not which the contestant picked and neither which contains the prize. In that way, the contestantâs choice is a forced finalist: it will be one of the last two in every started attempt, while only the other has to survive the possible elimination, and thatâs why it becomes more likely once it survives it.
In other words, Monty Hall doesnât work with two doors. Every time you are left with 2 doors Monty Hall fails. Fmpov this was an attempt to look like an innocent guesswork with some logical basis when the logic is in fact incorrect, which only reminds me of Crochet Mafia on qbcord (which granted you werenât a player there but basically wolves used a slattering of incorrect logic while sounding fancy to convince town). And I think you just went back in your own iso and thought âoh this is natural progressionâ by picking out something you said earlier.
It does NOT make sense for me to kill childe. AFAIK childe has been sheeping everything you said
no and I think thatâs precisely what you did. Divert attention off of yourself, because while this play seems suboptimal, the âtowncredâ you gain from this helps you while shifting attention off of yourself. Reverse psychology.
no and this is exactly the problematic mindset if you were town!! why would you go into ELO with an âunsureâ vote?? I trust that t!you would be careful enough to at least have gotten rid of the uncertainty!
Hey uh apennine Iâm going out in half an hour on an errand and expect to be back by ~30 mins before EoD so if you have any questions for the next 2.5 hours or so feel free to ask now
We have another day still, EOD is in 26 hours!
Also, Iâm reading everything and also going over past parts of the game to see what makes more sense. Iâm just not really caring to make cases or talk through my thoughts out loud since Iâm already clear.
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what but thatâs. thatâs what monty hall is
monty hall leaves you with two doors?
it starts with three doors right and then it reveals a door forcing the contestant to choose between two doors?
what? what? do you not