April Showers Forlorn - Day 1 (10/10)

[Jarek]

@soweli

I wouldn’t tend to think of ‘being in a hood’ as an ability (but also having multiple abilities isn’t abnormal, in uo2 i was bodyguard with conditional doublevote for example

You think so

[Jarek]

Well I think someone will be very bitter about that

Like the person whose only ability is being in a 3-way hood and being suspected for it

And I bet it’s ONE OF THEM

[Jarek]

@meow

totally low postcount bias, sorry: jarek

This is slander. My post count is higher than…

Okay wow you guys post a lot. LESS IS MORE. LESS. IS MORE.

[Jarek]

Jokes aside; enough has been said in this game for me to reasonably make a read on some people…

I was going to put a read list here but right now my reads on people are one of those more personal things those vibe based reads that putting into words tends to make people go “wtf are you talking about” rather than anything else. And then I’d spend at least 100 posts explaining it.

I’ll probably have a way to put it into words tommorow; but as always if you want thoughts on specific people that tends to be easier - laser focusing on one person and all that.

[Kiiruma]

Alright, first game back here in quite a while and it’s an April Showers.

I’ve been caught off guard by Zone doing interesting decisions in games so the instant reaction to the neighbourhood feels ill advised on their parts (despite the fact that yes, there is rarely a pure all villager hood), not sure how it makes me feel about alignments however. - Posting this about 90 posts in to reading the game since it’s the first real thing of mechanical ‘worth’ to discuss.

[Kiiruma]

@meow

beancat claiming a -EV role off the bat, which feels less mafia-like (easily subverted I know)

While this might be a decent thing to have as a gut instinct this again feels like someone who’s not really done much research regarding the previous iterations of Zone games, which I feel like reads a bit evil to me.

@meow

I liked dia outing the neighborhood if they are actually immune to anticlaim, I feel like it just gave more info to work off of early/clarifying why beancat and carbon were posting like that, a bit. I don’t know how I feel about them doing it without like, consulting the other two, but like whatever that’s just personal playstyle for me

This is nice to give me a tiny bit of meta regarding meow since it shows perspective differences might not necessarily be AI. I agree that the way dia handled outing the neighbourhood reads good at an initial glance but I don’t think it’s all that necessary to get ‘permission’ from the others or to consult them - but then again I’m a person who’d use my mech when I’m able to.

@meow

carbon using a double vote d1 vs any other day seems less optimal for mafia, unless there were restrictions on the double vote, and she was incentivized to use it d1. but if she figured she’d be in a thunderdome, then I can see it. also it just hit me that carbon is in a neighborhood again

This part is the part I find most weird, because mechanically we have no idea about Carbon’s double vote whereas it’s worded as if Carbon chose to do it in a pro-town way which could potentially be agenda? I feel like in general my play style is very different to meow’s though so I’m naturally being suspicious of the slot and poking around on several parts.

[Kiiruma]

@meow

what are the paths going forward from there – does one flipping wolf clear the other two?

No, it does not. It would be nice if it did but it’s foolish to try and act like there either ‘is automatically exactly 1 non town’ or ‘is at most 1 non-town’ considering the position we find ourselves in.

@meow

if we get a town flip, what happens with the other two (determine d2?)

Knowing some of the players in this game, probably will end up in people tunneling more.

@meow

does a neutral flip mean the other two are probably town or non-mafia? (imagining a town-mafia-neutral neighborhood now)

Neutral flip once again kinda feels like… nothing regarding the other slots. Like it could be the hood is ???-ProTownNeut-AntiTownNeut for all we know. The very final thought however, I slightly like? Since I was kinda picturing that too upon the first thought of ‘there’s a hood in a 10 player’ and the fact that meow goes into thoughts there later on in this post is nice to me since it’s similar to where my mind’s at a bit.

[iamagummybear]

Anyone up

I can’t sleep

[Jarek]

I’m going MIA from threat for what we call “Sleeping” so I’ll post my list here and you can interrogate me more deeply on why I believe what I do when I get back.

Townies no particular order:
Carbonated
Chomps
Soweli
Jarek
Meow

Middle of the Road (Could go either way)
Gummy
Diafiasco
Beancat

Quiet unreadable people
Leafia
Kiiruma

No…Real wolf-reads yet, but you could have figured that out by the fact I’m no voting anyone or have an opinion on anyone yet. Lucky for me I’m town so I don’t have to have all the answers right away

[Jarek]

(Having an opinion means having a negative I want to kill you one, obviously I have opinions on other players)

I really could have worded it better.

[Kiiruma]

VOTE: meow

I’m doing this because this is as of what I’ve read thus far, my main suspicion overall. I recognise that people might want to vote into people in the hood and that’s fine I suppose but I’m going to go with what I believe even if I’m the only one who decides upon this today

[Kiiruma]

@diafiasco

i don’t like looking at people’s past games too much bc for most people i find “tells” to be overstated. context matters!!!

I kinda like this mindset, since it means tackling each game from a relatively fresh perspective and that can mean a focus on what’s going on at present, however, I think having the context of previous games usually is a useful thing.

If I may ask a few small questions there. With some players who are well known for ‘tells’ at times it can be useful to at least be aware of them, so how do you handle those situations? Do you just see other players talking about them and go with the flow? Or would you look into them a bit if others were to discuss them?

@diafiasco

idk nothing there suggests this was a one time ability that got used today

This is a point I’d brought up regarding my catch up before and I like that you spotted it too. I don’t think it says too much alignment wise but it shows you’re paying attention to wording :)

[meow]

@beancat I was thinking about my role, and there is an aspect one could argue is -EV. but I wouldn’t say my role is -EV overall. I don’t know if this is what you’re looking for

[meow]

meow

[Kiiruma]

@Jarek

I just got here and we’ve already got a 3 way dome, I don’t neccessarily even think it’s a good idea to assume that because there are 3 of you in a hood, it means one of you has to be evil

Agreed. Though I know Jarek’s a decent mechanical mind and is aware of Zone’s trickery so doesn’t say too much except that Jarek’s not trying to take advantage of the situation.

@Jarek

I think I’d cut down the dome to just diafiasco or beancat personally

I’m interested in this being elaborated on. Plus with your previous message you seemed to not be too interested in the 3 person dome, yet here you’re saying to have a 2 person dome still. So… which is it? Where’s your mind at?

@Jarek

Though from carbonated’s double vote thing, it’s possible everyone has a hood + their own ability too - or that one of you is a hood creator and the other two are just collateral.

Interesting. Moving on.

[meow]

@Kiiruma

I recognise that people might want to vote into people in the hood

do you think neighborhood metagaming is a trap given zone & that it shouldn’t factor heavily into vote?

[Kiiruma]

Oh given the fact Zone’s the main Host behind this idea and had Crich as a Co-Host it could mean pretty much anything and is weird for people to try and be like ‘We hyper focus on this group of 3 and don’t look outside of it’ because it could be a trap.

We should use our abilities however we best believe they should be used and use that plus a combination of our reads to determine how to approach situations like the trio.

[meow]

vaguely wondering if carbon has as many votes as alive neighbors

[meow]

hm that would be bad if she was the only one left though, probably unlikely then

[Kiiruma]

It’s an interesting idea but yeah… then later into the game carbon’s vote weight is 0? I’m doubting that would be the case but I also think we don’t want to give evils possibilities to explore, we want to leave all options open so they don’t know what to do.