who
friend of mayās acquaintance of mine
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I havenāt failed to āimpossibleā all six games Iāve played on this site, so Iād say thatās not the word in the sentence I have the most trouble with.
well you know what they say
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Iām not sure I do, could you remind me?
Mayās lost every game on this site, right?
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Yep!
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all toasters toast toast
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All toasters toast toasters toast toasters toast toasters toast toasters-
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Arctic coached
tempting tbh
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Ah makes sense
Hey @Arctic you said you want to help me right?
Could I perhaps grab the posts I felt made Arete, Lemon and May obvious town the time it did and try and explain them to you.
And try pretending your town trying to figure out their slot.
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iāll forgive you for calling me an anime girl
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anyways uh I see some discussion of like
confbias and reevaluating and Believing True Things
so I thought I would share some things that Iāve personally found helpful (not just in mafia! lots of these have real life applications) (although given my reads this game they might not actually be Good Ideas?)
- Try to separate what you want to be true from what you actually believe is true. Itās really, really easy to think to yourself, āwell, if it turns out Iām wrong on X, Iāll (feel really bad/look stupid/be perceived as a bad player/etc.)ā and to therefore reason from there into finding arguments that actually you were write all along. Notice when you are doing this, and then stop doing it.
- Make advance predictions about what will happen in different worlds. Itās really easy, once something has already happened, to come up with a narrative for how it fits with what you already believed. If you force yourself to predict whatās going to happen (e.g. who will be nightkilled, what someone will do at SoD, etc.) before it happens, you can avoid that.
- Track your beliefs honestly, so that you know where you went wrong. Itās easy to say after the fact that you werenāt really so confident in someone being town/scum, that you were actually doubting all along, etc., or to look only at the favorable times of a read that you flip-flopped on. Try to (at least privately) keep track of your True Beliefs, so that you can figure out how accurate they are and canāt just lie to yourself ā that way, youāll have a better sense of where you need to improve.
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I do that all the time.
Iām a world builder.
I kinda get it.
Even if your are right if you didnāt provide good enough reason to where you would feel bad if they flipped town you shouldnāt be pushing it yet.
Not sure about this one applying to me here.
Like I did truly believe you were pushing on me poorly (I was obviously mistaken) and I didnāt like the fact you came out of nowhere and voted Magnus who was already a wagon and then go into a day with an already set change of read on Eliza to me felt wolfy, maybe not to others but it felt wolfy to me.
However it was your last EoD and how you handled it that IMO spewed you town.
HOWEVER, you could say my Prisma read was really bad and faulty and was based way too much on association rather then a solo evaluation on the slot itself.
Actually wait I need to correct that.
I didnāt like how you went and jumped to accuse Magnus.
You didnāt vote them until I told you to cause I was testing to see if you would actually do it or not.
ā¦the flip side of this is that when the predictions implied by your current beliefs donāt come true, it suggests that your model of the world is wrong somewhere
an example of where you could have applied this is after night 3, when you were expecting you would die, but instead Vulgard died. rather than considering that maybe the reason your prediction had been wrong was because your worldview was wrong, you continued pushing the same incorrect worldview.
yes