Bland & Flavorless Mountainous 15er - Mafia Winnered

[Arctic]

i don’t think i can explain it any more than i have.

i can bring up my early-game issues too, though

@Arctic

@May

I won’t couch this in too many words: I agree with Zorvo, Arete’s pinging a bit wolfy to me, VOTE: Arete

and i am just like. what? i can get that you may scumread for arete for the reasons you gave before (even though i don’t agree), but if the implication of this post is that you think seth’s arguments in particular hold any merit then i am fairly concerned (having actually read them and concluding that they are certifiably ), in conjunction with the timing of this making me feel like it’s a deferral of responsibility to seth for a vote on a villager

@Arctic

i don’t know who the third person you are referring to is, but my post was theorizing a world where seth and arete are v/v and may’s vote on arete while they were going at each other is coming from a wolf capitalizing on this engagement while handing the responsibility to seth (“I agree with Zorvo)”, mainly due to its timing and the underlying implication that may actually cared about seth’s reasoning, which i struggle to see her caring about?

and then today

@Arctic

my “re-evaluation read” is that may is probably a wolf because i think they were playing with an agenda yesterday. they spend most of the day doing nothing of value and turn up just before eod (where they are still a wagon) to start doing stuff. i think their vote on me was opportunistic because when the wagons are v/v, wolves very often want to kill the non-poe’d villager because people will still want to resolve the original target (eliza) the next day, but not necessarily vice-versa

the reasoning they gave for voting me was bad because they described my flip as being informative despite me being one of the least talked about players in the game and eliza being one of the most talked about. and other than that they gave no indication of actually thinking i was a wolf, so their only reason being for information just seems like bullshit to justify a vote on the spicy wagon

@Arctic

the alternative i’m thinking about is that how if i follow my social read on Arete and the gamestate, May is probably just a wolf

consider how it makes sense for May to be masterminding the world where the three of me, you and Arete are villagers, and none of us are being nightkilled. i called it out on day 1, but i dropped it after i misread magnus for similar reasoning, but it holds that they’ve been egging on your (at least one incorrect) pushes since day 1

i think they’ve had two wolfy eods. i think they’ve been taking a backseat for most of the game while villagers kill each other and she’s never practically acted on any of her strong convictions in an impactful way. it doesn’t look like she’s trying to solve the game - it looks like she is playing in a calculated way to capitalize on whatever opportunity comes up, whether it be me at eod or Arete now and i don’t think her justification of voting me because my flip would be informative holds when i’ve been a hardly-discussed yet townread slot for the entire game. like, that’s the opposite of the sort of slot you want to kill for information, and they didn’t respond to my question about it either so i have to just take it at face value.

@Arctic

i just don’t think it makes sense to say the villager miseliminations were town-led if you suspect arete (someone leading these miseliminations)

@Arctic

it’s a gamestate read that fits with my social reads
but it’s also just… the way she’s been traversing the game feels like it has an agenda rather than being free-flowey. like there’s always an ulterior motive for what she does next and it feels calculated. the best thing i have to contradict this is her treatment of jarek but even that read ended up being a mess because it kinda just phased out of existence / got the “it was an RT all along” treatment

@Arctic

it just feels like everything she does is calculated
like i thought it could have been a “cards close to your chest” sort of playstyle like how eevee plays, but i felt like she was infinitely more transparent with her process in starcraft from the parts that i read

[Vulgard]

I would like to make something clear here. I recognize the wolfreads on Arete and I am actually reading the content of them. I just don’t believe that anything you’re saying makes Arete a wolf. You’re picking apart their posting super hard when I genuinely don’t think it’s warranted, they just aren’t posting wolfy this game fmpov and what you’re saying doesn’t change my mind about that. I tend to be receptive to people’s reads, can be convinced and have been convinced, Arctic can attest to that after Gravity Falls. So it’s not like I’m dismissing your reads because I’m an asshole and want to enforce my solve, I’m dismissing certain reads because I simply think they’re wrong.

[Marluxion]

@Vulgard

No they don’t, aro did nothing to imply he meant anything you said he meant, you’re just adding reasoning when there is none from him

There is no reason for him to ask what he did if he wasn’t suspecting arete

[Vulgard]

But there is, he could be asking just because, because he was curious… I don’t only ask questions aimed at people I suspect, and I’m sure he doesn’t either.

[Vulgard]

I just feel like this is a really confbiased line of reasoning at best. You’re openly making stuff up from a dead villager to support your read. I’m sure that if aro genuinely suspected Arete, he would’ve made it clear.

[Vulgard]

I’ll read May’s ISO real quick.

[Marluxion]

You still haven’t respond to my questions about YOUR Arete read

I’m not going to hear literally any sass about mine until you can answer my complaints with your read. If my read is confbiased, then yours is just lazy and unconvincing

[Arete]

@Marluxion

who is town according to you

[Marluxion]

Arctic

[Arete]

Why

Also anyone else or just him

[Marluxion]

Literally that’s all I have that I feel strongly about

Vulgards alignment depends heavily on yours

[Vulgard]

I just had a thought that maybe May/otterpop is just V/W. Reasoning: what I said earlier about otterpop trying to talk about May and May not being receptive. I’ve just realized that this could work both ways.

May not posting and being sick really isn’t helping me read them. Arctic, I recognize your posting about May potentially playing mastermind and trying to entice Zorvo to help the wolf agenda, I’m just not sure May is such a good wolf (this would be their first forum wolfgame, and there aren’t many people who would play super well in their first forum wolfgame).

@May

Zorvo, someone I find towny, is already voting them, and I generally think his instincts have more merit than people give them credit for.

Also, I think this makes sense after the last game we played together, because Zorvo was town, had a correct wolfread on me, and wasn’t listened to. I feel like some of what May is doing here is motivated by them not wanting to ignore Zorvo’s reads again, as that proved to be a bad idea last game and Zorvo is being very towny this game.

@May

Note that this happened just after people were talking about how Prisma’s lack of knowledge on mafia terminology meant they seemed towny and had to be “protected”. I think that context specifically makes me side-eye it extra, and I’m willing to place a vote here for now and see what happens: VOTE: Prisma

There’s also the fact I support this line of reasoning, I think the wolfiest thing about Prisma is that I feel like they are really overplaying the I Am A Newbie card and have been doing so for the entire game. Aro was making the argument that Prisma was actively absorbing information and evolving his play, and I want to listen to him because he was nightkilled and he’s a very good player - but I can’t shake off these concerns entirely. And even if I do shake them off, I still had them myself, so May bringing up similar stuff feels good.

@May

Nothing Prisma’s done as a new player has specifically pinged town new player to me. Most of it seems completely NAI. You’d think this would amount to a neutral read, and at first it did, but the way they very specifically started acting extra oblivious to Magnus’s joke right after someone mentioned them being new seemed townie…

YES. This is exactly what I’m talking about, Prisma just feels like they’re doing this on purpose.

[Marluxion]

Because one of his first posts much much earlier on d1 talking about zorvo was one of the first posts in thread that felt like an actual sane person solving the game

[Arete]

Why is that townie

[Vulgard]

@Marluxion

You still haven’t respond to my questions about YOUR Arete read

It’s a really simple read, I just think Arete isn’t pushing wolf narratives, isn’t making bad arguments, has justified frustrations about the game that I can tell they are hiding instead of leveraging to devolve the thread into a mess (which they would do as a wolf), and has made numerous points that I would have made myself in the same spots, which means they are just a villager in my book. It doesn’t get any simpler than that.

[Marluxion]

This entire dayphase arete has just been playing to try to placate

Also the read that they would intentionally tank thread health as a wolf is dumb. Arete wouldn’t do that as either alignment because that’s just not the kind of person they are

[Vulgard]

@May

The best I can give right now is that the Aleph vote seems very policy-y, but that could equally be the result of a wolf not wanting to make subjective calls or a townie in an unfamiliar environment. Her scumread on me feels natural and I don’t really have many thoughts about it - same deal, could be wolfy, could be unfamiliarity with everyone else. I did the same thing to Misty when she invited me here (except she was a wolf).

Can you explain how otterpopd normally plays? I can’t believe nobody asked you this question until now. @May

@May

They don’t have the vibe of super wolf-pushed misexecutions to me.

Magnus made some mildly suspicious comments that I jumped on and hard focused, for example, and Zorvo was a big driver behind the Eliza wagon and I think he’s a villager.

It feels like we’ve been tearing ourselves apart and the wolves have been letting it happen - I’d look more carefully at people on vanity wagons and counterwagons (which obviously is a bad mark against me lmao but I’m willing to say it, I have an excuse [you don’t have to believe my excuse] [it is still true though]).

If Zorvo is actually a wolf, props to him for having such varied wolfgames, and I’m willing to take that L if the time comes for it.

This is the point in May’s ISO where I’m starting to see what Arctic described as agenda. Now I’m solidified in thinking May/otter is a V/W pairing given how May talks about otter here. May is also… weirdly confident about some reads, and while I know they do fake some reads, it’s impossible that they faked all of them. I know they were far more scatterbrained and worldbuildy last time I played with them and they were town, this time it feels more like they’re doing some deliberate thread maneuvering. Their only townreads all game have been Jarek and Zorvo and this is just not enough.

[Arctic]

I think may/otter contains at least one wolf almost always
(and if it doesn’t i will be quitting FM) (probably not actually but i would be tempted)

my read on you is dropping by virtue of the fact i do not think you have been trying to solve the game today. your posts today are exclusively defending yourself (in ways that i might add are not particularly convincing- the defence against may in particular felt like you put up a wall of “i do weird things” as a blanket defence to may’s accusation when the examples you cited were far removed from what she was accusing you of) or pandering to vulgard. i haven’t seen you take any initiative today. after your post outlining that you don’t have a great grasp on the game (which i at the time found villagery) i would have expected you to try and remedy this by now, but you… haven’t

seth is never a wolf and i don’t think lemon is a wolf. jarek could be playing an extremely good wolf game but the perspective he’s had wrt policy/frustration on seth is something i would be extremely surprised if he were able to fake, so i don’t really buy it

i think the stragglers are likely to be in vulgard/molly/prisma/marl who i have null reads on. i townread prisma the most out of this group followed by molly

the jury is still out on marl and vulgard. i’m not convinced marl is a wolf right now because if he was a wolf trying to steamroll an elimination on you then i would expect him to be appealing to zorvo rather than suspecting him for “pocketing him”, and this depends on your alignment. vulgard’s posting has been fine but there is nothing i can point to that would make me want to clear him, and this applies even if you are town

i think a you/may/1 of vulgard/molly team could work because you and may have had some weird interactions. it does contradict my puppeting zorvo part of the case, but that isn’t the only reason i have to suspect them. molly on the other hand doesn’t seem remotely interested in entertaining my may case.

i think a team like otter/marl/prisma is also possible

[Vulgard]

@Marluxion

Also the read that they would intentionally tank thread health as a wolf is dumb. Arete wouldn’t do that as either alignment because that’s just not the kind of person they are

Have you seen them play wolf? Every time I’ve seen them wolf, they tried to push some form of wolfsiding agenda. In Poisoner, they spent as much time arguing with town!JC as possible. In Anni, they tried to form a FoLtron with like 3 wolves in it. In UPick, they argued with town!katze and tried to prove that katze was lying about their claim and that it made them a wolf for a really long time. In Hydra 10er, they spent a ton of time trying to talk to the Chloe/katze hydra because it was wolfreading them and they were trying to keep that hydra in doubt.

None of this is how they have been playing here. They are just not a wolf. They have not been wolfsiding. The least wolfsidey game that I remember from Arete was an invitational where they claimed PR and bussed their teammate day 1, but they still got caught after that, even though they killed me very quickly so I couldn’t find them.

I’m going to ISO them again just to be sure, though.

[Marluxion]

@otterpopd

distrust: Arete (D1 plays trying to control the vote)

@otterpopd what do you mean by this