Players' Choice Invitational - Town Wins!

semi-real read
the bolding i did to explain to people so that part’s not real (at least mostly) but the read itself is real

real thought

real thought and i remember having to defend it a lot (including from arete themselves)

this is where i pretend i was toying around
i had it backwards the entire time and i’m admitting to it (and also admitting it to myself) only now

this is actually false
the copypasta this post refers to was posted purely for memes and not without a greater reason

mostly real

trying too hard to have a good read on arete
real mindset: i just saw a good wolfgame from arete so i wanted to push them bc i thought i was getting snowed already

i just wanted people to post but the strategic reason i gave is bogus, i just wanted to sound like i had a purpose / sound smart

rare moment of admission

i just wanted people to talk about hippo
me thinking he’s possibly mafia for wagonomics reasons was only included in this post to convince people they should think about his slot

i did think that at the time
changed my mind later fortunately

real read (and also correct)

should i keep going or is that enough for you

squirrel flipping town means the earlier theory about him being checked n1 probably holds true
i think wolves also likely would’ve checked ranta at some point
i think that if marl was found lw then it happened right as sulit died because i think wolves would’ve liked to know if ranta/squirrel are the lw

i won’t make up a reason why i think that this time, it’s pure speculation

Eh, I doubt your lying about most of your real thoughts being just “gutreads” so

speaking of this, another thing i often do is that i retroactively make up reasoning for my random nonsense to make myself look better and to potentially steer the thread in the direction i want

my theory about who the wolves checked is squirrel n1 (there’s actual evidence for that) and ranta n2
just based on gamestate things
so basically on nothing but my instinct in reading the game

n3 is irrelevant because sulit got shot that night

i didn’t expect this game to feature a grand vulgard confession but i guess it does now

I was hoping it would lead me to like “Marl and sulit combined would’ve probably made this” but it was Arctic who was always dying so

the problem with sulit is that she always dies in lylo if ranta and eli and squirrel all die too (which they probably would have since they are the easiest misyeets)
and whoever’s the last wolf would have to justify bringing her to lylo in the first place

the fact i got her shot with a single post is true but i agree that doesn’t necessarily make me town and i easily could’ve done that for credit

Or by not knowing
Much didn’t discrimate her from ranta

or that yes

i think that after wind was outed wolves knew they had to 100% rely on lw to win the game which is why they didn’t care about spewing anyone (like in the case of wind)

but looking for who wind spewed is pointless because wind didn’t know who the lw was
i think it all checks out

so basically three things i believe are true

  1. wolves checked squirrel and ranta for lw on n1 and n2 respectively, finding that neither was lw
  2. wolves knew their chances of survival were basically 0 the moment wind was outed
  3. wolves knew they had to rely on lw to win the game after wind was outed so wind kept posting and didn’t care about spewing people because it didn’t matter

So
Who was the n3 check?

the n3 check is completely irrelevant because sulit got shot that night so even if they found the lw that doesn’t change anything

It matters about who the wolves thought were lw

it should be noted that i don’t necessarily think wind was trying to spew the lw town, i think it’s more likely wolves didn’t know the lw and so she just posted spewy stuff without thinking about it too hard